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Global Economic Outlook - September 2017
Česká národní banka
The September issue of Global Economic Outlook presents the regular monthly overview of recent and expected developments in selected territories, focusing on key economic variables: inflation, GDP growth, leading indicators, interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices. In this issue, we also look at the real exchange rate phenomenon from the perspective of what it tells us about EU countries. The real exchange rate reflects movements in both the nominal exchange rate and relative price levels. This means it can be used, for example, to assess a country’s convergence efforts (towards the core euro area countries), to discuss the central bank’s effect on the distribution of real appreciation (between the nominal exchange rate and the inflation differential channels) and to track the external competitiveness of an EU economy, and hence also the euro area. This is the line followed by our article, which examines the period from the establishment of the euro area in 1999 to the present.
Fulltext:  PDF; PDF
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Global Economic Outlook - August 2017
Česká národní banka
The August issue of Global Economic Outlook presents the regular monthly overview of recent and expected developments in selected territories, focusing on key economic variables: inflation, GDP growth, leading indicators, interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices. In this issue, we continue our summer mini-series on the economic impacts of Brexit on the United Kingdom. In the July issue, we focused on the short-term effects, whereas this issue summarises the conclusions of the most important studies analysing Brexit from the longer-term perspective. These studies concur that the UK economy will lose out by leaving the EU, a prediction that is gradually being confirmed by actual economic developments. However, it is still difficult to estimate the real extent of the economic impacts of Brexit, as it will depend primarily on the terms negotiated between the UK and the EU. In our analysis, we therefore present the main possible scenarios quantifying how much the UK will pay for Brexit in terms of loss of GDP.
Fulltext: PDF; PDF
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Obama's Foreign Policy towards BRIC(s) in first functional term (2009-2012)
Kučerová, Petra ; Barša, Pavel (advisor) ; Laššuth, Juraj (referee)
Thesis deals with the foreign policy of Barack Obama's in first term 2009 - 2012. The aim is evaluate the U. S. foreign policy towards to BRIC(S) in this term. To acronym BRIC(S) partnership brings together world powers Russia and China and regional powers Brasil, India and South Africa. Introduction is dedicated to the characteristics of the main actors, the USA, president Obama and BRIC(S). The next section presents the assumptions of the U. S. foreign policy, factors and its limits. Finally anlyzes the foreign policy of Barack Obama. The analyses showed the different approach in its foreign policy toward superpowers China and Russia on one hand and regional powers Brazil, India and South Africa on the other.
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Potential of MIST and its influence on international trade
Gecko, Alexandr ; Bolotov, Ilya (advisor) ; Černá, Iveta (referee)
The thesis deals with the analysis of MIST markets (Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea and Turkey) in comparison to BRIC countries. The aim of the thesis is to emphasise the attractiveness and potential of MIST economies for international business and investments relating to their growing competitiveness. The first chapter introduces world trends in international trade and it describes the origin as well as the development of the group. The carried-out macroeconomic and demographic analysis in the second chapter reveals strengths and weaknesses of the MIST. The third chapter describes trade activities of the MIST and its current position in international trade. The fourth chapter analyses the entrepreneurial and investment environment of the group as well as its level of competitiveness. The carried-out research in the thesis has shown that the MIST economies represent a perspective group of developing markets with potential for trade and investment activities.
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Amibitons, acomplishments and perspectives of the BRICS countries.
Beleščák, Dušan ; De Castro, Tereza (advisor) ; Vošta, Milan (referee)
The primary objective of this work is to comprehensively evaluate the capacity of the BRICS to achieve its objectives by mutual cooperation, based on the confrontation of the declared aims of the group itself during its annual summits with real achievements. The secondary aim of the study is to estimate the direction in which the cooperation between the BRICS will be heading in the future and to define possible challenges threatening its success. The thesis is divided into three parts. In the first part the author describes the genesis of the term "BRICS", and then continues by describing the essential characteristics of individual BRICS countries and their mutual similarities and differences. In the second, main part, the author evaluates the extent of fulfillment of individual goals set during the BRICS summits, taking place annually since 2009. The author evaluates seven selected key goals by analyzing the reasons for their implementation, proposed methods of implementation, the steps taken for their fulfillment, the effectiveness of these steps and the current status. Subsequently, in a similar manner author evaluates several sub-targets. In the third part, the author presents the expectations for the forthcoming BRICS summit, outlines possible directions that will be taken by BRICS in the future and identifies the weaknesses threatening their successful cooperation.
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The group of states BRIC and its economic cooperation with Africa
Kurimská, Miroslava ; Pavlík, Petr (advisor) ; Žamberský, Pavel (referee)
Growing global importance of group of states BRIC has serious impact on current world economy. Economic cooperation with African states has become one of priorities of BRIC's group, what is seen on its higher interest of African continent. BRIC group presents alternative of traditional "north-south" cooperation by its new form of attitude. Goal of this diploma thesis is comprehensively identify form of new "south-south" economic cooperation of BRIC group with African continent using trade and investment analysis of economic cooperation of particular states of group BRIC and synthesis of main trends for BRIC as a group. Thesis supported growing importance of BRIC group on African continent at the expense of traditional partners of Africa by comparison of new and traditional partners' different attitudes. Application of international trade theory on cooperation of BRIC with Africa defined possible impact on economic development of African states.
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Current changes in orientation of the German economic diplomacy
Dírerová, Daniela ; Peterková, Jana (advisor) ; Zemanová, Štěpánka (referee)
Diplomacy is a unique tool of foreign policy for enforcing its interests among other actors in the international system. However, this means is not in an existential vacuum and thus has to react on dynamic changes in international environment for its effective functioning. Raising interest of international trade liberalization and growing importance of private sector in creation of foreign policy forms further development of the diplomacy. Thus, the economic diplomacy is becoming more important with an aim to implement country's vision in economic area. This topic is the main subject of the presented bachelor thesis. In 2012, German government published document "Shaping Globalization - Expanding Partnership - Sharing Responsibility". The primary aim of the thesis is to examine the influence of this new strategy on the German economic diplomacy. The key part of the thesis is dedicated to the strategy itself and is divided into multilateral (macro) and bilateral (mikro) objectives. First aspect pursues economic priorities on a level of international organizations. Bilateral part analyses reasons why Germany decided to orient economically on so called new players, why is Germany interested in their mutual commercial relations and which challenges result from it for the economic diplomacy. The secondary aim is to explain the structure, tasks and decision making process of the German economic diplomacy, because this information is not provided in detail by neither Czech nor Slovak scholar publications.
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China as a member of the BRIC countries
Gandalovičová, Linda ; Jiránková, Martina (advisor) ; Zapletal, Petr (referee)
Countries referred to as "emerging countries" are on the rise at the expense of western powers in recent decades. In this regard, the BRIC countries draw the most attention. BRIC is a group of four countries, Brazil, Russia, India and China, countries with great potential to become the new world powers in the near future. The objective of this bachelor's thesis is to examine, with an emphasis on China, whether these states are capable of creating a new modern economic and political platform. The thesis is divided into three chapters. The first chapter focuses on the basic information about the BRIC group. The second chapter analyzes the position of individual BRIC countries, and the group as a whole, in the world order using key economic indicators such as GDP, export and import. The third chapter describes the position of China, the economically strongest member of the BRIC group, since I consider her to be the determinant of success of the whole group. The chapter examines the current position of the country considering different areas if its economy.
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BRIC: the way to deepening, intensifying and extending cooperation
Wiesner, Jakub ; De Castro, Tereza (advisor) ; Jedlinský, Jakub (referee)
The goal of the Bachelor's thesis on the topic "BRIC: the way to deepening, intensifying and extending cooperation" is to present essential information about this group, to aim at the analysis of the mutual collaboration among the countries of BRIC and to outline the possibilities of the development. The following chapters are focused on potential prospective of this group being enlarged by some other developing countries with rapidly emerging markets and economics. Economic results of the countries of BRIC are being compared with the greatest economics of the world represented by the Unites States of America, European Union and Countries of G7. In the conclusion I take into consideration the issue whether the group BRIC might become in the future the economic leader of the world.
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The economic position of China within the group "BRICS"
Mišendová, Zuzana ; Kašpar, Václav (advisor) ; Vošta, Milan (referee)
The aim of the thesis is to discuss the position of China within the "BRICS" economies (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). China is the strongest member of the group, which is shortly introduced from the economic point of view in comparison to each other. China managed to keep high paces og economic growth even in times of global economic downturn caused by the global financial crisis. Based on it's economic strength, China gains more and more influence in the global economy and international affairs. China is also a dominant member of the grouping. The thesis analyses the position of China within BRICS and in the broader context of the global economy at the same time. It contains a complex analysis of the economic reforms and structural changes, which led to the shift of China's position towards becoming a world economic power. It also contains an analysis of the impacts of the world crises on the group and compares, how the members dealt with it. It also tries to answer the question if the crisis could cause a change in the existing global economic order in favour of China.
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