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Essays on Data-driven, Non-parametric Modelling of Time-series
Hanus, Luboš ; Vácha, Lukáš (advisor) ; Witzany, Jiří (referee) ; Ellington, Michael (referee) ; Trimborn, Simon (referee)
This thesis consists of four contributions to the literature on data-driven and non-parametric modelling of time series. In the first paper, we study the synchronisation of business cycles and propose a multivariate co-movement measure based on time-frequency cohesion. We suggest that economic inte- gration may lead to increased co-movement of business cycles, which may reflect the benefits of convergence and coordination of economic policies. The second paper presents a new methodology for identifying persistence in macroeconomic variables. Using time-varying frequency response func- tions, we identify heterogeneous persistence effects in US macroeconomic variables. The third and fourth papers propose data-driven techniques for probabilistic forecasting of time series using deep learning. We introduce a multi-output neural network that selects the most appropriate distribution for the data. The distributional neural network is valuable for modelling data with non-linear, non-Gaussian and asymmetric structures. The third paper demonstrates the usefulness of the method by estimating information-rich macroeconomic fan charts and distributional forecasts of asset returns. In the last paper, we present the distributional neural network to obtain the proba- bility distribution of electricity price...
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Financial Performance of European Cooperative Banks
Kuc, Matěj ; Teplý, Petr (advisor) ; Tůma, Zdeněk (referee) ; Tripe, David (referee) ; Witzany, Jiří (referee)
This dissertation consists of four essays dealing with the financial performance of European cooperative banks. We focus on a comparison between the performance of cooperative banks and that of shareholder-owned commercial banks. Furthermore, we compare different cooperative banking models in Europe, paying special attention to the Czech credit union sector. In the individual essays, we examine different performance measures depicting profitability, stability and cost efficiency. The topic of the financial performance of cooperative banks is highly relevant, as cooperative banks are structurally different from the standard commercial banking model and they have a significant market share in several European countries, while most of the empirical literature focused on banking financial performance is devoted solely to commercial banks. The first essay of this dissertation thesis empirically assesses the financial performance of Czech credit unions compared to that of cooperative banks from 15 European countries in terms of their profitability and stability. Employing dynamic panel data methods, we reveal that the performance of Czech credit unions in terms of both profitability and stability is worse than that of their European peers. In the second essay, we compare the financial performance of cooperative...
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Bank's performance in low and negative interest rate environment
Hanzlík, Petr ; Teplý, Petr (advisor) ; Tripe, David (referee) ; Witzany, Jiří (referee) ; Tůma, Zdeněk (referee)
Dissertation thesis Banks' performance in low and negative interest rate environment Author: Mgr. Petr Hanzl'ık Abstract This dissertation consists of four empirical papers that focus on the performance of banks in the low or even negative interest rate environment characteristic for the decade after the global financial crisis of 2007-2009. The first paper focuses on the analysis of a re- lationship between the net interest margin (NIM) of EU banks and market interest rates in a low-interest rate environment while controlling for the impact of market concent- ration by examining a large sample of annual data on 629 banks from EU countries for the 2011-2016 period. The results show a positive concave relationship between NIM and short-term interest rates, deterioration of NIM for all types of banks and a higher market concentration leading to higher NIM. In the second paper, we examine the determinants of NIM of European and US banks in a zero lower bound (ZLB) situation while control- ling for institutional design factors, i.e. difference between capital-based and bank-based financial markets. We analyse a large sample of annual data on 629 European banks and 526 US during the 2011-2016 period confirming that NIM is significantly influenced by the different institutional designs. The third paper deals with...
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On Market Efficiency, Optimal Distributional Trading Gain, and Utility Maximization
Navrátil, Robert ; Večeř, Jan (advisor) ; Witzany, Jiří (referee) ; Pospíšil, Jan (referee)
On Market Efficiency, Optimal Distributional Trading Gain, and Utility Maximization Robert Navr'atil The aim of this thesis is multifold. First, using results from the optimal distributional trading gain problem, we determine a utility-maximizing portfolio that optimizes the benefit an agent may receive by trading the difference between his perceived future distribution of a security price and the risk-neutral density provided by the corresponding option market. Moreover, we show how one can fit the risk-neutral density directly from option market data using the SVI parameterization. We use integer programming with kernel search heuristics to statically replicate the optimal payoff. Second, we show that the United States equity market was inefficient during the weeks following the initiation of the COVID-19 pandemic. This is demonstrated by showing that utility-maximizing agents over the period ranging from mid-February to late March 2020 could generate statistically significant profits by utilizing historical price and virus- related data to forecast future equity ETF returns. Finally, we focus on the passport option. We present a version of insurance of a traded account that symmetrically treats both of its underlying assets. In our approach, we impose a natural symmetric limit in which the agent can...
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Analýza a porovnání různých modelů pro Value at Risk na nelineárním portfoliu
Baran, Jaroslav ; Witzany, Jiří (advisor) ; Hurt, Jan (referee)
The thesis describes Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) models for measuring market risk. Parametric method, Monte Carlo simulation, and Historical simulation (HS) are presented. The second part of the thesis analyzes Extreme Value Theory (EVT). The fundamental theory behind EVT is built, and peaks-over-threshold (POT) method is introduced. The POT method is then used for modelling the tail of the distribution of losses with Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD), and is simultaneously illustrated on VaR and ES calculations for PX Index. Practical issues such as multiple day horizon, conditional volatility of returns, and backtesting are also discussed. Subsequently, the application of parametric method, HS and EVT is demonstrated on a sample nonlinear portfolio designed in Mathematica and the results are discussed.
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Barrier options pricing
Macháček, Adam ; Witzany, Jiří (advisor) ; Hurt, Jan (referee)
In the presented thesis we study three methods of pricing European currency barrier options. With help of these methods we value selected barrier options with underlying asset EUR/CZK. In the first chapter we introduce the basic definitions from the world of financial derivatives and we describe our data. In the second chapter we deal with the classical model based on geometric Brownian motion of underlying asset and we prove a theorem of valuating Up-In-barrier option in this model. In the third chapter we introduce a model with stochastic volatility, the Heston model. We calibrate this model to market data and we use it to value our barrier options. In the last chapter we describe a jump diffusion model. Again we calibrate this jump diffusion model to market data and price our barrier options. The aim of this thesis is to decribe and to compare different methods of valuating barrier options. 1
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Stochastic interest rates modeling
Černý, Jakub ; Witzany, Jiří (advisor) ; Hurt, Jan (referee)
Title: Stochastic interest rates modeling Author: Jakub Černý Abstract: This present work studies different stochastic models of interest rates. Theoretical part of this work describes short-rate models, HJM fra- mework and LIBOR Market model. It focuses in detail on widely known short-rate models, i.e. Vašíček, Hull-White and Ho-Lee model, and on LI- BOR Market model. This part ends by valuation of interest rate options and model calibration to real data. Analytical part of the work analyses valuation of real non-standard interest rate derivative using different models. Part of this derivative valuation is comparison among models in terms of general valuation and also in terms of capturing the dynamics of interest rates. The aim of this work is to describe different stochastic models of interest rates and mainly to compare them with each other.
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Valuation of Credit Derivatives
Davidová, Věra ; Witzany, Jiří (advisor) ; Myška, Petr (referee)
Credit derivatives are very interesting financial instrument both theoretically and practically. Their valuation has become an often discussed topic during the financial crisis since 2007. First part of this work is dedicated to standard types of credit derivatives, mainly to description of their character and to information about the historical development and also about the actual situation on the credit derivative market. However, this work is primarily focused on valuation of more complicated credit derivatives, namely Collateralized Debt Obligation (CDO), where modeling of correlation between underlying assets is required e.g. by copula functions. Then it deals with the mechanism of allocation of cash flow from underlying portfolio to CDO debt tranches, which is called financial waterfall. The goal of this work is to estimate price of a derivative by simulation methods and to examine an impact of changes in correlation structure inside portfolio, in recovery rates of assets and in other parameters of valuation. This valuation runs on real data about traded derivative, so it can be compared to its market value.
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Advanced methods of interest rate models calibration
Holotňáková, Dominika ; Witzany, Jiří (advisor) ; Branda, Martin (referee)
This thesis is focused on the study of advanced methods of interest rate mo- dels calibration. The theoretical part provides introduction to basic terminology of financial mathematics, financial, concretely interest rate derivatives. It presents interest rate models, it is mainly aimed at HJM approach and describes in detail the Libor market model, then introduces the use of Bayesian principle in calcula- ting the probability of MCMC methods. At the end of this section the methods of calibration of volatility to market data are described. The last chapter consists of the practical application of different methods of calibration Libor market model and consequently pricing od interest rate swaption. The introduction describes procedure of arrangement of input data and process of pricing of interest rate derivatives. It is consequently used for the valuation of derivative contract accor- ding to mentioned methods. 1
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Three Essays on Credit Risk Quantification
Gapko, Petr ; Šmíd, Martin (advisor) ; Witzany, Jiří (referee) ; Tichý, Tomáš (referee) ; D'Ecclesia, Rita Laura (referee)
The dissertation thesis deals with modeling and estimating credit risk. In the thesis we particularly focus on the credit risk of retail, and more exactly mortgage, debtors. The thesis is organized into three separate papers with a common theme, which is a development of a credit risk measurement methodology from simpler enhancements of the current research to a model able to capture such details as e.g. the duration structure of the mortgage portfolio. All three papers use the same underlying dataset, a time series of the national US mortgage portfolio delinquency and foreclosure rates. As the research was done during several years, the latter parts of the thesis work with additional observations. In the first paper, we demonstrate that the current regulatory standards for credit risk quantification are based on assumptions that do not necessarily match the reality. Generalizing the well-known Vasicek's model, standing behind the Basel II, we build a model of a credit risk of a loan portfolio. The model, similarly to the Vasicek's model, decomposes the credit risk (expressed as the portfolio probability of default) into two risk factors, one common for all borrowers in the portfolio, and one individual for each single borrower. Our model involves dynamics of the common factor, which influences the...
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