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Valuation of a stock title with profits adjustment for the impact of business cycles
Filip, Dominik ; Vacek, Vladislav (advisor) ; Belan, Michal (referee)
The bachelor thesis is focused on the valuation of preferred stock title BMW with normalization of profitability from business cycles. In first two chapters, the company is subjected to the analysis from the point of its main geographic segments as well as the point of its profitability, together with factors influencing the earnings. The analysis of the main geographic segments scrutinizes the contemporary situation of these markets and the position of the company on each of them. The analysis of profitability is aimed on very earnings of the company, on the partial adjustment of these earnings and on the identification of crucial aspects that affect the profitability. The whole purpose of the third chapter is the normalization of profitability in order to isolate the real profitability from the one affected by the business cycles and the valuation of the company with utilizing the normalized profitability and the Sum-of-the-parts valuation method. At the end of the whole thesis the comparison between the market price and the intrinsic value of preferred stock is formulated.
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Determinants of drug prices
Lazarenkov, Oleg ; Vacek, Vladislav (advisor) ; Hoffman, Andrej (referee)
The aim of this dissertation is to gain practical and theoretical knowledge of the drug market, examine how this market functions and conduct an analysis of illegal drug prices and their determinants in the U.S. This study highlights the drug market's unique properties and discusses how it functions in the initial stage of its formation, as well as how it responds to external interventions. Both qualitative and quantitative methods are employed in this study. The most important price determinants of selected narcotic substances on the American market are analyzed in order to demonstrate that this market does not always act in accordance with economic principles due to the elasticity and uniqueness of this product. The findings are supported by an original econometric model which includes all of the most important factors from the period 1989 through 2011.
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Real estate as investment
Damborská, Lucie ; Vacek, Vladislav (advisor) ; Mazáček, David (referee)
This bachelor thesis discusses real estates as investment assets. In the beginning, I define in which part of the market is investor, considering real estate purchase, situated. Present situation on real estate and mortgage markets is specified afterwards. In the next parts, I describe typical real estate investor and give an example on his investment instrument, apartment in Prague city center. I state, enumerate and when possible optimize all the expenses that should be considered by investor. Next chapter is concerned by revenues. In the rest of the thesis, I perform and comment profitability calculations of particular scenarios.
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Analysis of impact of Fundamental news on movement of index VIX
Koráb, Pavel ; Fičura, Milan (advisor) ; Vacek, Vladislav (referee)
The thesis investigates the impact of the fundamental news announcements on the movements of the VIX volatility index and the VIX Futures prices. The theoretical part of the thesis explains the construction of the VIX Index and the VIX Futures, describes the most important fundamental news for the US economy and presents a methodology for the modelling of the relationship between the news announcements and the VIX index movements with a simple linear regression model. In the empirical part of the thesis, we analyze the impact of 105 US fundamental news, from the Reuters Eikon database, on the VIX Index movements on theday of the news announcements as well as on the subsequent day. We find a strong relationship between the surprise component of the news and the VIX Index movements on the day of the news announcement, with the statistically significant news explaining 5-10% of the total return variance (for news with small number of observations up to 30-50%) on the announcement day. In the second part of the empirical study, simple trading system is proposed in order to utilize the possible impact of the economic news on the next-day (after announcement) returns of VIX futures in order to achieve speculative profits. Although the models seem to possess some limited out-sample profitability for some of the news, the results are for most of the cases statistically insignificant and the potential profits from the news trading seem to be relatively low.
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Analysis of factors influencing the mortgage market in the Czech Republic
Král, Šimon ; Vacek, Vladislav (advisor) ; Mazáček, David (referee)
The topic of this diploma thesis is the analysis of the factors influencing the mortgage market in the Czech Republic. The first part explains the basic terms related to the mortgage loan. Then follow characteristics of different mortgage loans which a client is able to get on the local market. Next there is a description of the history of mortgage lending in the Czech Republic and its development to the present day. The first chapter of the analytical part defines the factors which has influence on the development of the mortgage market. In the next chapter these macroeconomic factors are analyzed and evaluated. The objective of the work is to create a simplified model describing the interaction of macroeconomic variables and the mortgage market, used to estimate the future development and managing banking risk.
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Comparison of machine learning methods for credit risk analysis
Bušo, Bohumír ; Kolman, Marek (advisor) ; Vacek, Vladislav (referee)
Recently, machine learning has been put into connection with a field called ,,Big Data'' more and more. Usually, in this field, a lot of data is available and we need to gather useful information based on this data. Nowadays, when still more and more data is generated by use of mobile phones, credit cards, etc., a need for high-performance methods is serious. In this work, we describe six different methods that serve this purpose. These are logistic regression, neural networks and deep neural networks, bagging, boosting and stacking. Last three methods compose a group called Ensemble Learning. We apply all six methods on real data, which were generously provided by one of the loan providers. These methods can help them to distinguish between good and bad potential takers of loans, when the decision about the loan is being made. Lastly, the results of particular methods are compared and we also briefly outline possible ways of interpretation.
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Pricing of Power Derivatives
Foukal, Viktor ; Witzany, Jiří (advisor) ; Vacek, Vladislav (referee)
The main target of this thesis is to summarize and demonstrate the main characteristic of power markets and trying to find out electricity spot model. Thesis starts with definition of market subjects, typology of traded contracts and description of market development with focus on South Easter Europe. Thesis continues with development of consumption function and theoretical concepts of Demand/Capacity ratio which is used in short term/spot modeling and serve to identify a risk of potential increase in volatility. After deriving fundamental models I will continue with stochastic model - Volatility Regime model with Jump diffusion. I used all these knowledge and observed patterns in order to evaluate illiquid power options with daily settlement.
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Oceňování opcí pomocí Monte Carlo metod
Waldeckerová, Naďa ; Witzany, Jiří (advisor) ; Vacek, Vladislav (referee)
This thesis aims to analyse different Monte Carlo methods when applied to the problem of option pricing. Closer attention is paid to three variance reduction techniques, namely control variathes, importance sampling and antithetic variables, and two different approaches, least-squares Monte Carlo and quasi-Monte Carlo methods. The detailed analysis of the differences and improvements is done on a problem of plain vanilla option pricing. At the end the methods are each applied to valuation of different exotic options.
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Anomalies of financial markets
Máčayová, Miroslava ; Stádník, Bohumil (advisor) ; Vacek, Vladislav (referee)
Theory of efficient markets generally describes financial market as a place with perfect rationality and awareness. According to this theory, the price of each instrument fully reflects all available information, therefore denies the existence of poorly rated stocks. Against this doctrine stands the theory of behavioral finance, which describes, that individuals on financial markets do not always act in rational way, and their behavior is affected with emotions. This psychological phenomenon has the consequence that on the financial market are visible certain anomalies. There are a lot of explanations of these abnormalities. One of the assumptions is that the prices of instruments tend to rise more slowly than fall. This different is in my work explained by the theory of black swan - the existence of unexpected, but the price-setting information. Another psychological theory causing the abnormalities is called the round number effect, which describes that investors consciously or subconsciously tend to perceive the rounded amounts differently than others. Empirical results of my thesis largely demonstrated that the two psychological effects mentioned to some extend contribute to the existence of deviations from normal, and confirm the occurrence of irrationality on financial market.
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P2P lending
Dobiasová, Dana ; Bártová, Hana (advisor) ; Vacek, Vladislav (referee)
The aim of this bachelors thesis is to determine the effect of P2P lending on the economic indicators and the status of small and medium enterprises in the United States, specifically for the period form 2011 to 2015. To better understand the practical part, two first chapters will be focused on defining the concept of P2P lending and analysing the current situation in the United States. Besides that, it is also an emphasis on regulatory requirements which are newly starting to appear. This knowledge is later used in practical part, which analyse the state of SMEs and their way of financing, which makes them able to safeguard its economic growth and offer new job opportunities. All the essential facts, identified by market analysis, were described and evaluate in the overall summary.
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