|
|
Global Economic Outlook - May 2017
Česká národní banka ; Sekce měnová ; Odbor vnějších ekonomických vztahů
The May issue of Global Economic Outlook presents the regular monthly overview of recent and expected developments in selected territories, focusing on key economic variables: inflation, GDP growth, leading indicators, interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices. In this issue, we focus on the question of whether the oil market is approaching equilibrium. We consider in more detail, among other things, the behaviour of OPEC and US shale oil producers observed over the last three years. We also attempt to identify the causes of occasional sharp swings in oil prices.
Fulltext:  PDF; PDF
|
|
|
Global Economic Outlook - April 2017
Česká národní banka ; Sekce měnová ; Odbor vnějších ekonomických vztahů
The April issue of Global Economic Outlook presents the regular monthly overview of recent and expected developments in selected territories, focusing on key economic variables: inflation, GDP growth, leading indicators, interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices. In this issue, we also discuss the risks to global economic growth in the medium term. Global growth is currently being threatened above all by non - economic factors (environmental risks, large - scale migration, terrorism). Economic risks may continue to hinder world growth, but they no longer dominate the global risks in the way they did immediately after the global crisis broke out.
Fulltext: PDF; PDF
|
|
|
Global Economic Outlook - March 2017
Česká národní banka ; Sekce měnová ; Odbor vnějších ekonomických vztahů
The March issue of Global Economic Outlook presents the regular monthly overview of recent and expected developments in selected territories, focusing on key economic variables: inflation, GDP growth, leading indicators, interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices. In this issue, we then focus analytically on the monetary and fiscal policy response space in OECD countries. The article shows that nominal interest rates are still expected to be very low over the medium term. This is inconsistent with the process of closing output gaps and attaining inflation rates close to 2%, making a return to conventional interest - rate policy more difficult. Our article also notes that the return to positive real interest rates will be complicated by the overleveraging of many OECD countries, as a visible rise in interest rates could increase the risk of insolvency of several euro area countries and trigger the feared domino effect.
Fulltext: PDF; PDF
|
|
|
Global Economy Outlook - February 2016
Česká národní banka ; Sekce měnová
The February issue of Global Economic Outlook presents the regular monthly overview of recent and expected developments in selected territories, focusing on key economic variables: inflation, GDP growth, leading indicators, interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices. In this issue we also consider how global imbalances in the world economy have changed since the start of the millennium in the context of the abating crisis period. The crisis has been reflected not only in a considerable worsening of the largest economies’ external positions (current account balances), but also in a deterioration of their domestic fiscal positions (public finance balances). Thus, an intensification of the twin deficit phenomenon is significantly complicating the process of reducing global imbalances in the world economy.
Fulltext: PDF; PDF
|
|
|
Global Economy Outlook - January 2016
Česká národní banka ; Sekce měnová ; Odbor vnějších ekonomických vztahů
This year’s first issue of Global Economic Outlook presents the regular monthly overview of recent and expected developments in selected territories, focusing on key economic variables: inflation, GDP growth, leading indicators, interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices. In this issue, we also focus on the life cycle of foreign direct investment (FDI) on both the theoretical and empirical level. Our article presents an empirically derived general profile of the FDI profitability life cycle and then applies it to create scenarios for the probable future evolution of total FDI earnings on the example of the Czech Republic.
Fulltext: PDF; PDF
|
|
|
Global Economy Outlook - December 2015
Sekce měnová ; Odbor vnějších ekonomických vztahů ; Česká národní banka
This issue of Global Economic Outlook presents its regular overview of recent and expected developments in selected territories, focusing on key economic variables: inflation, GDP growth, leading indicators, interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices. It contains an article "The role of China in the slowdown in international trade". This article investigates the causes of the sizeable fall in imports into China observed for almost a year now and analyses its impacts on international trade.
Fulltext: PDF; PDF
|
|
|
Global Economy Outlook - November 2015
Česká národní banka ; Sekce měnová ; Odbor vnějších ekonomických vztahů
This issue of Global Economic Outlook presents its regular overview of recent and expected developments in selected territories, focusing on key economic variables: inflation, GDP growth, leading indicators, interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices. It contains analysis Central banks’ gold reserves. This article sets out to summarise the facts about the role of gold in central banks’ reserves. Despite having lost its unique status in the international monetary system, gold maintains a strong position not only with central banks, but also with private investors thanks to its ability to reduce systemic risk and preserve value. The following paragraphs therefore outline the role of gold in the reserves of central banks and the IMF. Some countries – e.g. China, Russia and India – are currently seeking to change the role of gold in their economies and in the financial system as a whole. This phenomenon is therefore also dealt with in this article.
Fulltext: PDF; PDF
|
|
|
Global Economy Outlook - October 2015
Česká národní banka ; Sekce měnová ; Odbor vnějších ekonomických vztahů
This issue of Global Economic Outlook presents its regular overview of recent and expected developments in selected territories, focusing on key economic variables: inflation, GDP growth, leading indicators, interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices. It contains analysis "Shadow policy rates – alternative quantification of unconventional monetary policy", it applies the concept of shadow rates to quantify the effect of the unconventional monetary policy instruments of the ECB and the Fed and thereby indicate the degree of monetary policy easing achieved in terms of interest rates.
Fulltext: PDF; PDF
|
guest ::
