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Cross-Border Contagion in the Banking Sector: The Case of Nordic Countries
Baronaite, Lina ; Babin, Adrian (advisor) ; Princ, Michael (referee)
"Cross-Border Contagion in the Banking Sector: The Case of Nordic Countries" by Lina Baronaite Abstract: The objective of the thesis is to estimate the degree of cross-border contagion among the Nordic banking sectors. It analyzes a sample of sixteen largest listed Nordic banks from January 2004 to January 2014. Using a multinomial logit model we test whether there is any degree of contagion among the four banking sectors, whether it is more pro- nounced for larger banks and whether the recent financial crisis has exacerbated it. Our results are in line with similar studies conducted for other countries. In particular, we find that a shock in one bank- ing sector is positively associated with an increase in shocks in another banking sector. Second, these shocks are larger and more significant for larger and more active international banks. Finally, the effect of the recent financial crisis has ambiguous effects on the cross-sectoral banking contagion. It appears that contagious links between some sec- tors weakened (Sweden and Denmark, Sweden and Finland). Other economies (Sweden and Norway) on the contrary became more depen- dent on each other. The results are robust to a wide variety of changes in specifications.
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Effects of the Financial Crisis on Stock Market of the Czech Republic and Spain
Titizov, Toško ; Avdulaj, Krenar (advisor) ; Princ, Michael (referee)
The paper analyzes effects of the financial crisis on stock market of the Czech Republic and Spain. We employ BEKK-GARCH model in order to study volatility spillovers and transmissions from the US stock market to stock markets of the Czech Republic and Spain. The multivariate GARCH models results show statistically significant, but relatively small, almost irrelevant volatility spillovers from the US stock market to stock markets of the Czech Republic and Spain. The Czech stock market exhibits higher conditional correlation coefficient than the Spanish stock market.
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Comovement of Stock Markets and Commodities: A Wavelet Analysis
Vavřina, Marek ; Vácha, Lukáš (advisor) ; Princ, Michael (referee)
The thesis applies the wavelet analysis to four developed stock market indices (USA, UK, Germany and Japan), four developing stock market indices (Brazil, China, India, Russia) and four commodities (Gold, Crude oil, Heating oil and Natural gas) and it aims to reveal how they comoved in the period of the Global financial crisis, which began in the USA as the Subprime mortgage crisis. Also the potential presence of contagion caused by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers bank is investigated. In addition the Granger causality test is applied to give a different perspective and to extend the analysis. Empirical results revealed that the wavelet correlation of stock markets and commodities differ significantly when talking about the short-term and the long-term horizon. This information can be utilized in the portfolio analysis. The wavelet analysis revealed contagion coming from the USA to the German and Brazil stock market, Crude oil and Heating oil market after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. The Granger causality test indicates that there is a very strong causal relationship between stock markets and commodities and it differs at different scales.
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Price Level Convergence and Real Exchange Rate Determinants in the New Member States of the European Union
Pospíšilová, Andrea ; Holub, Tomáš (advisor) ; Princ, Michael (referee)
Differences in price levels as well as inflation rates among countries have been subject of discussion for a long time. More than the actual levels, however, the question of determinants of price levels in time and a possible convergence is key for the new member states with respect to the Maastricht criteria. The dynamics of price levels is crucial, and many suggestions have been put forward to explain the observed trends and changes. This thesis focuses on the determinants of relative price level, and hence real exchange rate, developments in the new member states of the EU and employs a regression analysis to examine their change in time. As most of the countries in focus are transition economies, structural variables are also included among the independent variables. We find that the Balassa- Samuelson effect is key to explaining real exchange rate developments as the effect of productivity differential has been significant over the whole period examined. However, in the recent years, marked by the onset of the crisis, other factors, such as the structure of trade and Euro area membership, have become more prominent.
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Informed Trading on the Prague Stock Exchange
Doležal, Tomáš ; Parrák, Radovan (advisor) ; Princ, Michael (referee)
Subject matter of this thesis is the problem of informed trading on the Prague Stock Exchange. This topic is developed in two directions. First one is empirical analysis of informed trading, which makes use of unique dataset which includes trading in XETRA and SPAD. This dataset enabled the author to compare change in measures of informed trading in respective trading systems. For this comparison models PIN and VPIN are used, the latter for the first time in Czech academic research. Model PIN brings the result that the probability of informed trading has significantly decreased following the transition to XETRA. On the contrary, results of VPIN metric suggest that measure of toxic liquidity has slightly increased. Second one is economic analysis of law. On the basis of economic insight two regulatory issues are identified - the problem of inside information and conflict of interest in case of market makers. Legal analysis has brought two key findings - problem of inside information is the result of incomplete implementation of european legislature and the conflict of interest is attributed to its improper treatment, based on the concept of fiduciary duties, which are hard to enforce in this particular case. Proposal how to fix these problems suggests "chinese wall" as the solution which would...
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Relationships between Corporate Governance and Firm Performance: Effects on Czech Export Oriented and Financial Industries
Habiňák, Ladislav ; Princ, Michael (advisor) ; Jašová, Martina (referee)
The thesis describes effects of corporate governance on firm performance and managerial income of firms from sectors important for Czech GDP: financial sector and export-oriented manufacturing industries. Added value of the work comes mostly from the fact that it concerns Czech firms and especially that it studies the two sectors using econometric method as well as it compares them on graphs and tables. There are two main topics for hypotheses testing. Firstly, the thesis investigates effects on firm performance, measured by proxy variable return on equity, by sizes of executive boards and firms. Secondly, the effects of performance as well as companies and boards sizes on managerial income are studied.
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Analysis of the Natural Gas Market during the Period of Deregulation - A Comparison of Selected European Countries
Mirková, Barbora ; Mikolášek, Jakub (advisor) ; Princ, Michael (referee)
The liberalization of gas markets is in the European Union and especially in its new Member States a current topic. This thesis is devoted to a comparison of the liberalization processes in three Central European countries - the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Poland. The thesis first introduces the concepts of public and natural monopolies, the specific characteristics of gas markets and the legislation of the European Union that underlies the liberalization. Further, the thesis takes a close look at the developments in the gas markets of the three countries. The focus lies mainly on the national legislation, opening of demand side and changes in the market structure, including unbundling, new entrants and supplier switching. The final chapter of the thesis analyzes and compares the progress in liberalization of the individual markets by calculating the market concentrations using the Herfindahl-Hirschman index.
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Comparison of Stock Market Volatilities in Central Eastern Europe and South Eastern Europe
Petrovski, Dragan ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Princ, Michael (referee)
The thesis offers a study on the stock market volatility in the countries of Central Eastern Europe and South Eastern Europe. We provide a univariate GARCH modeling of the stock market indices PX, BUX, and WIG from the CEE region and CROBEX, BELEX-15, and MBI from the SEE region. Additionally, we present a bivariate GARCH models in order to examine the volatility transmissions and spillovers from the European equity market to the equity markets in CEE and SEE. Our results suggest higher persistence of volatility in the CEE countries than in SEE countries, significant leverage effect more evident in the CEE region than in the SEE region, and high synchronization in the volatility between the CEE equity markets and the European equity market. The multivariate GARCH results reveal certain statistically significant but small volatility spillovers from the European equity market to the equity market in Hungary, Poland, Serbia and Republic of Macedonia. The CEE equity markets record higher conditional correlation coefficient than the SEE countries towards the European equity market. In general, the CEE equity markets are a relatively homogenous group in terms of volatility, while the SEE equity markets are a diversified group in terms of volatility with low synchronization and correlation with the...
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Econometric test of euro adoption impact on German and Czech exports: the costs and benefits of Eurozone membership in the trade sector
Hyžíková, Mirka ; Benáček, Vladimír (advisor) ; Princ, Michael (referee)
The purpose of this study is to find the influence of common currency on the international trade development. The study deals with the Rose effect, which says, that the currency unions increase trade by more than 200%. This thesis designes an extended gravity model of international trade where the economic characteristics of countries are combined with institutional and policy factors of trade, such as the EU common policies, impacts of the Euro or trade agreements and other factors, which lowers the transaction costs of trade, such as the quality of infrastructure. The thesis also deals with the data structure influence on the results of the estimation of gravity models and shows the problem which is not in common literature noted. Compared to the common research, this thesis focus in detail only on Czech and German exports.
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Analysis of Interdependencies among Central European Stock Markets
Mašková, Jana ; Baruník, Jozef (advisor) ; Princ, Michael (referee)
The objective of the thesis is to examine interdependencies among the stock markets of the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Germany in the period 2008-2010. Two main methods are applied in the analysis. The first method is based on the use of high-frequency data and consists in the computation of realized correlations, which are then modeled using the heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model. In addition, we employ realized bipower correlations, which should be robust to the presence of jumps in prices. The second method involves modeling of correlations by means of the Dynamic Conditional Correlation GARCH (DCC-GARCH) model, which is applied to daily data. The results indicate that when high-frequency data are used, the correlations are biased towards zero (the so-called "Epps effect"). We also find quite significant differences between the dynamics of the correlations from the DCC-GARCH models and those of the realized correlations. Finally, we show that accuracy of the forecasts of correlations can be improved by combining results obtained from different models (HAR models for realized correlations, HAR models for realized bipower correlations, DCC-GARCH models).
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