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Volatilita akciového trhu v ČR:Vzestupy a pády
Princ, Michael ; Netuka, Martin (advisor) ; Seidler, Jakub (referee)
A stock market came through a significant development in the Czech Republic; from its artificial beginning, through a fierce decline in listed companies, to a gradual rise in the market capitalization, which was suddenly turned off by a global financial crisis in 2008. The diploma thesis concentrate on a volatility analysis of a stock market in the Czech Republic in years 1994- 2009 including a comparison with a data available from world developed stock markets - namely European region, USA and Japan. The most important and influential events concerning world markets and also a development of Prague Stock Exchange are included in the analysis. Econometric tools includes GARCH model and its most popular derivatives and generalisations i.e. IGARCH, EGARCH and APARCH processes. The thesis is split into two main parts. The first part is devoted to a PSE volatility analysis based only on domestic data series involving GARCH class models estimations, a forecasting abilities comparison and also a structural-break analysis based on the ICSS algorithm including the Inclan-Tiao test and its successors. Next part involves a dynamic analysis based on the DCC MVGARCH model, which describes a change in a volatility spillover effect during the time. It is furthermore supported by the Granger causality...
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Bankruptcy prediction models in the Czech economy: New specification using Bayesian model averaging and logistic regression on the latest data
Kolísko, Jiří ; Princ, Michael (advisor) ; Červinka, Michal (referee)
The main objective of our research was to develop a new bankruptcy prediction model for the Czech economy. For that purpose we used the logistic regression and 150,000 financial statements collected for the 2002-2016 period. We defined 41 explanatory variables (25 financial ratios and 16 dummy variables) and used Bayesian model averaging to select the best set of explanatory variables. The resulting model has been estimated for three prediction horizons: one, two, and three years before bankruptcy, so that we could assess the changes in the importance of explanatory variables and models' prediction accuracy. To deal with high skew in our dataset due to small number of bankrupt firms, we applied over- and under- sampling methods on the train sample (80% of data). These methods proved to enhance our classifier's accuracy for all specifications and periods. The accuracy of our models has been evaluated by Receiver operating characteristics curves, Sensitivity-Specificity curves, and Precision-Recall curves. In comparison with models examined on similar data, our model performed very well. In addition, we have selected the most powerful predictors for short- and long-term horizons, which is potentially of high relevance for practice. JEL Classification C11, C51, C53, G33, M21 Keywords Bankruptcy...
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Risk factor modeling of Hedge Funds' strategies
Radosavčević, Aleksa ; Princ, Michael (advisor) ; Šopov, Boril (referee)
This thesis aims to identify main driving market risk factors of different strategies implemented by hedge funds by looking at correlation coefficients, implementing Principal Component Analysis and analyzing "loadings" for first three principal components, which explain the largest portion of the variation of hedge funds' returns. In the next step, a stepwise regression through iteration process includes and excludes market risk factors for each strategy, searching for the combination of risk factors which will offer a model with the best "fit", based on The Akaike Information Criterion - AIC and Bayesian Information Criterion - BIC. Lastly, to avoid counterfeit results and overcome model uncertainty issues a Bayesian Model Average - BMA approach was taken. Key words: Hedge Funds, hedge funds' strategies, market risk, principal component analysis, stepwise regression, Akaike Information Criterion, Bayesian Information Criterion, Bayesian Model Averaging Author's e-mail: aleksaradosavcevic@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail: mp.princ@seznam.cz
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Network Readiness and Internet Usage in the European Union
Nikodym, Jakub ; Serdarevič, Goran (advisor) ; Princ, Michael (referee)
This thesis focuses on the analysis of key drivers of broadband internet take-up and usage in the European Union. In particular, we explore the coverage effect on fixed-to-mobile broadband substitution and the consequent impact of computer skills and education parameters on e- services usage. These fields have undergone rapid transformation within the EU digital economy in recent years, especially due to the introduction of faster 'next generation' broadband networks and development of web applications. The research question investigates decisions of households with regards to broadband adoption as well as the impact of education and digital skills on the use of e-services. Our qualitative analysis examines differences in performance across EU member states considering key indicators set by the Digital Agenda for Europe 2020 policy objectives. We then apply empirical methods using panel data to test our two research questions. Our findings suggest that there is a significant effect of network coverage on the fixed-to-mobile broadband substitution and we confirm the relevance of computer skills on the increased usage of e-services in the EU.
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Household Debt in the Czech Republic: Focus on Mortgage Amount Determinants
Mittigová, Patricie ; Cahlík, Tomáš (advisor) ; Princ, Michael (referee)
The growth of household indebtedness in the last decade led to more attention paid to this issue since it could threaten the stability of financial system in the future. In the Czech Republic, this rise is mainly caused by the increased number of mortgage loans, which are usually the largest financial burden that debtors have to repay. For that reason, I focus on mortgages since their growth has been the most significant in comparison with other loan types. The aim of this thesis is to analyse how personal characteristics affect one's decision on the amount they choose to borrow in order to finance their housing needs. For this purpose, I performed a multiple regression analysis applying several estimation methods. By examining a random sample of ČSOB clients who have taken out a mortgage, I discovered that person's income, age, marital status, education and region a person lives in are significant factors affecting debtor's choice about how much they borrow. Conversely, the number of children affects the amount borrowed only at higher quantiles of the distribution, whereas it is not a significant factor at lower quantiles. This thesis complements rather a limited number of studies about the Czech household debt as it provides new findings about a borrower's decision. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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European Stock Markets Integration
Vildová, Tereza ; Princ, Michael (advisor) ; Křehlík, Tomáš (referee)
This thesis examines the integration of European stock markets, focusing on the affect of the EU and Eurozone. Moreover, the thesis analyses whether increasing integration is a local trend possibly caused by the EU and Eurozone, or whether either the Japanese or American stock market gets more integrated with the European ones as well. We study the integration using weekly data of eighteen European stock markets and stock markets of Japan and the US over the horizon of twenty years. The method used is an extension by Klöessner and Wagner (2012) of a method originally introduced by Diebold and Yilmaz (2009). We find a positive effect of the EU on the integration of the stock markets. Also, the integration is rather local as the American and Japanese stock markets are proved to not have a higher increase in integration with the European stock markets that they have with each other. Finally, we find the Eurozone does not have an immediate positive effect on the integration of the stock markets. Keywords Stock markets integration, Spillovers, EU, Eurozone, Diebold and Yilmaz Author's e-mail vildova.t@email.cz Supervisor's e-mail mp.princ@seznam.cz
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The Impact of Short-term Interest Rate on Stock Prices in the Czech Republic
Michlian, Štefan ; Princ, Michael (advisor) ; Brechler, Josef (referee)
This thesis focuses on the relationship between short-term interest rate and stock prices. The main idea is that if interest-rate increases, it makes holding stocks less attractive relative to fixed income securities. Therefore, investors change the structure of their portfolios and switch capital from stocks to banks, which results in stock prices decrease. In our thesis, we apply GJR-GARCH-t-M model to study the impact of Czech interest rate (14-day PRIBOR) on the Prague Stock Exchange (the PX index). In contrast to the majority of research on this topic, we have found no impact of the PRIBOR rate on the PX index- neither on its mean nor on its volatility. We attribute the absence of a significant relationship to exceptional composition of the PX index. Furthermore, we have found that the recent crisis has significantly changed the behavior of the Czech stock market.
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Cross-Border Contagion in the Banking Sector: The Case of Nordic Countries
Baronaite, Lina ; Babin, Adrian (advisor) ; Princ, Michael (referee)
"Cross-Border Contagion in the Banking Sector: The Case of Nordic Countries" by Lina Baronaite Abstract: The objective of the thesis is to estimate the degree of cross-border contagion among the Nordic banking sectors. It analyzes a sample of sixteen largest listed Nordic banks from January 2004 to January 2014. Using a multinomial logit model we test whether there is any degree of contagion among the four banking sectors, whether it is more pro- nounced for larger banks and whether the recent financial crisis has exacerbated it. Our results are in line with similar studies conducted for other countries. In particular, we find that a shock in one bank- ing sector is positively associated with an increase in shocks in another banking sector. Second, these shocks are larger and more significant for larger and more active international banks. Finally, the effect of the recent financial crisis has ambiguous effects on the cross-sectoral banking contagion. It appears that contagious links between some sec- tors weakened (Sweden and Denmark, Sweden and Finland). Other economies (Sweden and Norway) on the contrary became more depen- dent on each other. The results are robust to a wide variety of changes in specifications.
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Effects of the Financial Crisis on Stock Market of the Czech Republic and Spain
Titizov, Toško ; Avdulaj, Krenar (advisor) ; Princ, Michael (referee)
The paper analyzes effects of the financial crisis on stock market of the Czech Republic and Spain. We employ BEKK-GARCH model in order to study volatility spillovers and transmissions from the US stock market to stock markets of the Czech Republic and Spain. The multivariate GARCH models results show statistically significant, but relatively small, almost irrelevant volatility spillovers from the US stock market to stock markets of the Czech Republic and Spain. The Czech stock market exhibits higher conditional correlation coefficient than the Spanish stock market.
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Comovement of Stock Markets and Commodities: A Wavelet Analysis
Vavřina, Marek ; Vácha, Lukáš (advisor) ; Princ, Michael (referee)
The thesis applies the wavelet analysis to four developed stock market indices (USA, UK, Germany and Japan), four developing stock market indices (Brazil, China, India, Russia) and four commodities (Gold, Crude oil, Heating oil and Natural gas) and it aims to reveal how they comoved in the period of the Global financial crisis, which began in the USA as the Subprime mortgage crisis. Also the potential presence of contagion caused by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers bank is investigated. In addition the Granger causality test is applied to give a different perspective and to extend the analysis. Empirical results revealed that the wavelet correlation of stock markets and commodities differ significantly when talking about the short-term and the long-term horizon. This information can be utilized in the portfolio analysis. The wavelet analysis revealed contagion coming from the USA to the German and Brazil stock market, Crude oil and Heating oil market after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. The Granger causality test indicates that there is a very strong causal relationship between stock markets and commodities and it differs at different scales.
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