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The Gravity Model and Effects of Opening the Northern Sea Route: Industry Level Trade Analysis
Jeong, Juyeong ; Semerák, Vilém (advisor) ; Paulus, Michal (referee)
The future opening of the Northern Sea Route will decrease the maritime distance between Europe and East Asia relative to currently used routes. Due to this reason, the Northern Sea Route has been researched and analyzed by various scholars. However, the development of the passage is rather slow because of the lack of attention from possible future users such as shippers or producers. Their moderate interest might be caused by the uncertainty of possible benefits in their specific industry. To diffuse their concern, this paper measures the possible direct effects on trade in industry level based on the current characteristics of the world trade. For a better estimation, various models are used and tested. This paper finds that the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) outperforms Ordinary Least Squares (OLS); negative elasticity of maritime distance; 'primary sector' and 'sectors produce heavy or dangerous goods' from Northeastern European countries are likely to experience a higher increment in exports by using the Northern Sea Route than other European sectors. According to the findings, the continual or more attention on the Northern Sea Route is advised to lower the transport costs of usage for the maximization of welfare.
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Corruption Distance and Foreign Direct Investment: Evidence from European Transition Economies
Yu, Bin ; Paulus, Michal (advisor) ; Bruno, Randolph Luca (referee) ; Semerák, Vilém (referee)
This dissertation builds on Cezar and Escobar's (2015) study of the relationship between institutional distance and foreign direct investment (FDI), but focuses instead on the nexus between corruption distance and FDI. Along the lines of their study, this dissertation uses a two-stage gravity model derived from the framework of heterogeneous firms to empirically estimate the impact of corruption distance on the inward and outward FDI of European transition economies. This dissertation contributes to the literature in several aspects. First, it proposes a new method for measuring corruption distance, considering the importance of firms' previous experience to the development of necessary skills for navigating a foreign business environment. Second, the empirical study distinguished the impact of corruption distance on the extensive and intensive margin by using a rich dataset with three different corruption indices, which thereby differs from most previous studies on this topic. This is also one of the few papers that specifically study this topic in the context of European transition economies. The results show that both conventional and adjusted corruption distance based on the control-of-corruption index only reduces the extensive margin of transition economies' FDI; and that the magnitude of...
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The Belt and Road Initiative: Effects on eastern Europe and post-soviet republics gravity analysis
Reinštein, Jakub ; Paulus, Michal (advisor) ; Semerák, Vilém (referee)
In this paper I intend to examine the impact of Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), logistical performance and corruption on bilateral trade among countries along its inland corridors. In order to do so I have used micro-founded gravity model of trade. Ordinary Least Square and Pseudo Poisson Maximum Likelihood estimations with importer, exporter and year fixed effects were applied on panel dataset including information about 150 countries between 2007 and 2015. My results indicate, that BRI has positive effect on bilateral trade between involved countries, however it has negative impact on the trade with the rest of the world. I have also found out, that logistics performance is significant factor in facilitating trade in some categories of goods. Interestingly my results have not identified corruption as negative factor in trade and in some cases, it appears that corruption might promote trade, however further research of this topic is needed. Keywords Gravity model, International trade, Belt and Road Initiative, Corruption, Logistics
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Influence of the interest groups on healthcare reimbursement decree in Czech Republic
Bobula, Peter ; Paulus, Michal (advisor) ; Bryndová, Lucie (referee)
Reference (bibliographic reference of this thesis) BOBULA, P. (2019) Influence of the interest groups on healthcare reimbursement decree in Czech Republic. Prague, 2019. Master's thesis (Mgr.). Charles University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Political Studies. Department of Political Science. Supervisor Mgr. Michal Paulus Abstract Reimbursement decree is an important part of the healthcare policy in Czech Republic. It determines how the resources will be allocated in the healthcare system the next year. According to the Czech legislature, Ministry of Health invites the representatives of insurance companies and healthcare providers to discuss and create a balanced form of reimbursement. When they are not able to agree, it's up to Ministry of Health to determine the reimbursement in corresponding segment. We assume that this kind of organization enables the involved representatives to push their interests in order to get more favorable financing for their profession. Different groups have different positions in the bargaining process so we can expect the existence of winners and losers according to the financial arrangements they were able to enforce. Using the content analysis of final protocols from reimbursement decree conciliations, spending of insurance companies in healthcare segments and...
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The Economic Costs of Unfinished Highways in the Czech Republic
Prokop, Pavel ; Havránek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Paulus, Michal (referee)
This thesis attempts to introduce between economists overlooked topic of highway effects to a wider audience in the hope of promoting discussion about the efficiency of infrastructure investment. It is also believed to be the first academic writing to question, verify, update and extend the offi- cial Czech guidelines used for highway cost and benefit analyses through a wide literature review, making it useful to road transport experts. The main focus is on the unit prices and quantities estimation of various costs and benefits, whereas the software calculation is not analyzed in such detail. Literature review, centered around the European recommendations and related academic research, a brief description of the cost and benefit evaluation of road infrastructure in the Czech Republic, and proposed changes in time costs, accidents, air pollution, climate change, landscape, biodiversity and time indexation are presented. Abstrakt Tato práce se snaží širšímu publiku představit ekonomy přehlížené téma efektů dálnic a posílit diskuzi o efektivitě investic do infrastruktury. Velmi pravděpodobně je první akademickou pub- likací, která ověřuje, aktualizuje a rozšiřuje oficiální českou metodiku používanou pro analýzu přínosů a nákladů dálniční infrastruktury, za pomoci širší literatury a může být užitečnou...
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Comprehensive Trade Agreement between Asymmetric Partners
Classen, Lennart Peter ; Paulus, Michal (advisor) ; Semerák, Vilém (referee)
Free Trade Agreements and particularly Asymmetric ones have been discussed controversially for several decades now. The Latin American region has increased their efforts to integrate their economies in the international arena. The Andean Community being a customs union in Latin America signed a Free Trade Agreement with the European Union in 2013. Being an asymmetric trade deal, this thesis examined whether it has resulted in trade creation and trade diversion effects already. Looking at the results, I can clearly reject the notion of negative effects as a consequence of the trade agreement. Considering the entire, but also the agricultural and manufactured economic sectors, I found statistically significant trade creation effects. Concerning trade diversion effects, the results were not statistically significant and additional research in the future seems required. Keywords Gravity Model, Asymmetric Free Trade Agreement, Trade creation, Trade diversion, Andean Community, EU, Panel Econometrics Title Comprehensive Trade Agreement between Asymmetric Partners
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Capital Flight from Ukraine: Measurement and Drivers
Marchenko, Yuliia ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor) ; Paulus, Michal (referee)
This thesis presents estimates of capital flight from Ukraine in the period 1994 to 2017. We use the World Bank Residual method to calculate capital flight as a residual difference between sources and uses of funds in the economy. Our findings show that pre-2014, capital flight amounted to 7.5 billion USD on average. On the contrary, in 2014 our method reports unrecorded capital inflow of 10.7 billion USD, which took place in times of economic recession and military conflict in the east of Ukraine. We analyze the factors that might have caused reverse capital flight, and consider that increase in remittance flows, growth of the black currency market and new niches in the underground economy might have had an effect on unrecorded capital inflows. Finally, we study the components of the World Bank Residual method, and suggest that capital flight might have taken forms that the method doesn't encompass. Therefore, we underline the importance of accounting for gaps in the method by adding trade misinvoicing estimates to capital flight volumes. Keywords Ukraine, Capital Flight, World Bank Residual Method, Balance of Payments, Shadow Economy Range of thesis: 89 886 Characters
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The Geopolitics of Repressions
Kosík, Martin ; Chytilová, Julie (advisor) ; Paulus, Michal (referee)
This thesis studies how geopolitical concerns influence attitudes of a state toward its ethnic minorities. Using data digitized from archival sources on more than 2 million individual arrests by the Soviet secret police, I apply difference-in-differences and synthetic control method to estimate how changing German-Soviet relations influenced repressions of Germans in the Soviet Union. The results of both methods show that there was large and statistically significant increase in arrests of Germans following the German invasion into the Soviet Union in 1941. Furthermore, the impact of war appears to be highly persistent since there is almost no decline in the estimated effect on repressions for nearly 10 years after the end of the war. Keywords repression, geopolitics, Soviet Union, difference-in-differences, synthetic control method, archival data
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China's One Belt and One Road Initiative and its potential for the tourism industries in Africa, Asia and Europe: a gravity model approach
Jannaschk-Schmitz, Patrick ; Paulus, Michal (advisor) ; Benáček, Vladimír (referee)
In 2013, China presented the idea of the infrastructure project One Belt One Road. The thesis aims to analyse the potential effects of the initiative, and how its attempt to improve transport infrastructure will impact EU-tourist flows to participating countries. A closer look to the effects on the tourism industry is justified because of the importance of the touristic sector for the global economy. For instance, the direct contribution of the touristic sector accounted for 2.3 trillion USD worldwide in 2016. A gravity model approach is used in the following paper to examine the significance of road, railway, air service as well as port infrastructure for tourists from the European Union. Afterwards, an OBOR simulation is carried out that forecasts a potential change for EU-tourist inflows. The results go in line with previous gravity model studies regarding the positive relationship of the GDP and the inverse influence of the distance on tourism flows. Furthermore, the findings suggest a significant impact of well-developed road, railway and air service networks. However, the quality of ports did not meet the expectations and is somewhat contra productive for the decision making of EU tourists. The simulation for the improvement of transport infrastructure implies that countries with an under-...
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The impact of CNB's exchange rate commitment on Czech exports
Teichman, Jiří ; Paulus, Michal (advisor) ; Baxa, Jaromír (referee)
The thesis evaluates the effect of Czech National Bank's exchange rate commit- ment on Czech sectoral exports. Thus, we show how unconventional monetary policies could affect the exports. To assess the impact of interventions, we use Synthetic Control Method. The method constructs synthetic Czech exports from data of comparable countries that were not under the policy of inter- est and compares them to observed Czech exports following the interventions. We expect a positive effect of Czech National Bank's commitment on Czech exports, because the interventions resulted in the undervaluation of koruna causing a higher demand for Czech goods abroad. Additionally, the exporters should benefit from reduced uncertainty caused by no exchange rate volatility with the euro area. The results showed a positive impact of interventions only in half of the export sectors. The positive effect of a stable exchange rate is not confirmed, because the effect on the euro area countries in some categories was smaller than for the other countries. The results for total sectoral exports were stable across model specifications and confirmed by analysis of Czech bi- lateral sectoral exports to the largest destinations. The significant contribution of this thesis is application of Synthetic Control Method on total sectoral...
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