National Repository of Grey Literature 40 records found  beginprevious20 - 29nextend  jump to record: Search took 0.00 seconds. 
Electricity market model of the Czech Republic
Kubát, Jan ; Pelikán, Jan (advisor) ; Kodera, Jan (referee) ; Marvan, Miroslav (referee)
A competitive electricity market has been established in many European countries including the Czech Republic. The electricity market includes a limited number of significant producers and traders, which can be described by oligopoly model. Since the electricity transmission and distribution are regulated, I consider two types of players performing in the electricity market: producers of electricity and traders, who buy electricity from producers and sell it to final customers. I derive oligopoly model with producers and traders "a la Cournot" and calculate a formula of equilibrium strategies. I use these theoretical findings to build a dynamic oligopoly model Ele. Ele is formulated as a mixed complementary problem and calibrated on data for the Czech Republic and neighbor states for several scenarios. The model was specified and calculated in GAMS software by the PATH solver. The results represent a Nash equilibrium. That means for individual producers: electricity generation, investment in new power plants construction and emission permits purchases. For traders the results are: equilibrium purchases, sales and cross-border transfers of electricity in each particular time period. Ele derives also equilibrium regional wholesale and retail electricity prices, emission permit prices and prices of cross-border auctions. Ele results point to an economic profitability of new nuclear power plants constructions. Further, I formulate a game in short-term electricity market, where I advise to Czech market participants, subjects of settlement, how much and in which circumstances to buy or sell electricity. Equilibrium results obtained through simulations based on the principle of a fictive game show that the current payment system of imbalance in the Czech Republic does not increase the risk of instability of electricity networks.
Valuation of PX Index Options with NGARCH Volatility and Time Dependent Expected Risk Free Rate
Štěrba, Filip ; Málek, Jiří (advisor) ; Kodera, Jan (referee) ; Hnilica, Jiří (referee)
The main purpose of this thesis is to propose the valuation method of PX index options. PX index consists of blue chip stocks traded on Prague Stock Exchange. There are traded a few futures contracts on PX index on Prague Stock Exchange. However, the options on PX index are traded neither on Prague Stock Exchange nor on the OTC market. It is reasonable to think that it is only question of time when the trading of these options will emerge and thus, it is highly relevant subject of research to propose the method for valuation of these options. The traditional Merton's approach for valuation of equity index options assumes constant volatility and constant risk free rate. This results in serious mispricing which can be easily seen when we compare market prices and Merton formula derived prices. Instead, this thesis releases the assumptions of constant risk free rate and constant volatility. Firstly, it is assumed that that the risk free rate is time dependent function based on current market expectations and secondly it is assumed that the volatility of underlying asset follows NGARCH-mean process. For the purpose of former, the validity of pure expectation theory assumption is made. This enables to employ the instantaneous forward rate curve estimation procedure. For the purpose of the latter, the locally risk-neutral valuation relationship is applied. The assumption of NGARCH-mean process is essential in an effort to capture usually observed patterns of volatility (volatility skews) whereas the assumption of time dependent risk free rate still moves the valuation option model closer to the reality. The author derives the expected path of risk free rate and estimates the parameters of NGARCH process. Subsequently, the empirical martingale Monte Carlo simulation is used to price the PX options with different moneyness and with different times to maturity. It is shown that this proposed model results in volatility pattern which is usually observed on developed markets and the author's results are in line with similar empirical studies testing the GARCH Option Pricing Theory. The author concludes that proposed valuation method superiors original Merton's model and thus is more appropriate for primary valuation of PX options.
Comparation of Alterantive Policy Rules in a Structural Model of the Czech Republic
Hledík, Tibor ; Tomšík, Vladimír (advisor) ; Kodera, Jan (referee) ; Komárek, Luboš (referee)
The main goal of this thesis has been a study of alternative policy rules in a small structural model calibrated to capture the Czech economy. After the overview of the historic development of economic theory and structural modeling we have specified a small open economy model that has served as a main technical tool for the analysis. The model represents a framework, where forward-looking model-consistent expectations are formed with respect to the development of the exchange rate and interest rates. Inflation expectations are forward looking too with some nominal rigidities in inflation dynamics. The model's structure is relatively simple. The IS curve captures the dynamics of real GDP, that exhibits real rigidity, motivated by habit formation or investment adjustment costs. In our specification the real GDP is a function of (the deviation of) real XR, real IR and foreign demand (from corresponding equilibrium levels). The Phillips-curve is based on the F-M type wage setting behavior, therefore it enables to consider domestic prices, that are modeled as mark-ups over wages. CPI inflation then consists of domestic, imported and administered inflation, including the effect of any indirect taxes changes. The exchange rate is modeled by the UIP arbitrage condition. Exchange rate expectations are forward-looking, but with some inertia in expectation formation. Interest rates with one year maturity are also modeled as an arbitrage condition on the money market, they are fully model-consistently forward looking. The model is closed by a Taylor-type forward-looking policy rule. The interest rate exhibits some inertia and feeds back from deviation of inflation from target and output from its equilibrium. The specification (parameterization) of the rule is general enough to examine CPI and domestic inflation targeting. The model specification has been followed by empirical work leading towards the implementation of the previously specified model on Czech data. Based on the sources of the Czech Statistical Office, Czech National Bank, Consensus Economics Inc., we first processed the data by executing seasonal adjustment and other transformations necessary for being consistent with the definition of model variables. The database has been created by an automatic MATLAB based routine, therefore the calculations were relatively easy to update. The database being completed, we have set up a Kalman-filter for determining equilibrium values for the real interest rate, exchange rate and output. At the same time through Kalman filtering we identified all model residuals. We paid special attention to the decomposition of the output gap and discussing In order to assess the overall dynamic properties of the model and judge how well the model fits the data, we conducted several exercises. First we decomposed some of the important endogenous variables of the model to shocks to see, whether the identified shocks are in line with our intuition and episodes of the recent Czech economic history. We found, that the shocks are not in contrast with some of the clearly distinguishable episodes. After the shock decomposition we run in-sample simulations to see, how well the model is able to fit the reality two years ahead. We found the overall results quite encouraging. We were able to fit quite well the output gap as well as MP inflation. Domestic inflation has been slightly more inertial in model simulations than in reality, but even in this case the results were acceptable. The model was not able to fit the 2001-2 appreciation of the nominal XR footnote{Understandably it neither forecasted well the fast fall in inflation after the appreciation period.}, which is not a big surprise. The model calibration part of the thesis concludes, that the model fits the data and economic story reasonably well.
Macro-finance modeling of yield curve - Czech analysis
Škop, Jiří ; Mandel, Martin (advisor) ; Kodera, Jan (referee) ; Komárek, Luboš (referee)
This doctoral thesis devotes itself to macro-finance models of the Czech yield curve that enable the modeling of the yield curve as a whole and belong to the group of multi-factors models. These factors are unobservable or latent variables, and are intuitively called level, slope and curvature. Macro-finance models not only fit the yield curve through the use of latent factors, but they also try to provide a macroeconomic interpretation. The macro part of the model uses a type of VAR model, where the macroeconomic variables are endogenous or exogenous, or some macroeconomic model based on e.g. a New Keynesian economy. Such a type of models can answer (1) how the macroeconomic variables affect the yield curve, and, on the other hand, (2) how these macroeconomic variables are affected by the yield curve. The EUR/CZK exchange rate and the external environment play an important role in the Czech small open economy (in particular, developments in the eurozone and the impact of global investors' sentiment toward risky assets). Thus, we should take this into consideration when applying to Czech data. It has been shown that temporary macroeconomic and financial shocks (to inflation, output gap, EUR/CZK exchange rate, external demand, etc.) strongly affect the short end of the yield curve; however, longer spot rates react only marginally. The longer end of the curve may move more significantly in the case of a longer duration of the above-mentioned shocks (thus affecting inflationary expectations) or in the case of shocks to the inflation target and real equilibrium interest rates.
The Impact of Taxation of Dividends and Capital Gains on Return on Shares and Share Price Behavior in Germany
Kraus, Pavel ; Marek, Petr (advisor) ; Kodera, Jan (referee) ; Hrdý, Milan (referee)
The impact of taxation on total return on shares and share price behavior around ex-dividend day is an ongoing problem in the field of Corporate Finance. Several groups of theoretical approaches have evolved since 1950s. Proponents of tax impact argue that share prices decline around ex-dividend day. The extent of decline is also a subject of academic discussions. Moreover, they also claim that shares with higher dividend yield must amount to higher total return on shares before tax in order to keep the total return on shares after tax equal for all kinds of shares. On the contrary, proponents of signalling effect insist on rising share prices around ex-dividend day. This dissertation is mainly aimed at empirical evaluation of the most significant findings mentioned above; based on tests of statistical hypothesis and regression and correlation analysis. The empirical study uses relevant data of German Stock Exchange in Frankfurt upon Main from 2001 till 2009. Additionally, the changes in taxation of dividends and capital gains in 2001 and 2008 are thoroughly explained and analysed with regard to return on shares and share price behavior. The dissertation is divided into 3 main parts including an analysis of current findings, explanation of main elements of tax reforms in 2001 and 2009 and, finally, an empirical analysis. The analysis of current findings includes a review of significant research on share price behavior around ex-dividend day, signalling effect and relationship between dividend yield and total return on shares before and after tax. Moreover, the verified hypotheses in this dissertation were deduced from revailing conclusions of the review. The explanation of main elements of tax reforms in 2001 and 2008 is focused on description of changes in taxation of dividends and capital gains. In 2001, the full imputation method eliminating double axation of dividends was removed and replaced by half-income method taxing only a half of dividend. In 2008, the half-income method was replaced by withholding tax; under defined circumstances by the 60%-income method taxing 60% of dividends. In an empirical analysis, the hypothesis about decline of share price around ex-dividend day and the hypothesis about decline of share price equal to dividend after tax were tested. Additionally, existence of positive relationship between total return on shares before tax and dividend yield and existence of no significant relationship between total return on shares after tax and dividend yield were verified. The decline of share prices was proved in every year. The existence of positive relationship between total return on shares before tax and dividend yield was confirmed in every year except 2006 and 2008.
Model of EU international trade - assigning countries into subgroups in panel data
Tichý, Filip ; Hušek, Roman (advisor) ; Kodera, Jan (referee) ; Vošvrda, Miloslav (referee)
I model foreign trade among European countries by applying gravity equation model on panel data. The aim is to investigate exchange rate volatility impact on foreign trade and to test for the presence of the so-called Rose effect in relation to the Euro currency area. I develop a novel complex approach to the estimation of the gravity equation when the assumption of homogeneous reaction within the group of studied countries is relaxed. New methodology, tests and implementation is proposed. I develop several heuristic methods that permit effective clustering of countries in a selection of subgroups. The clustering process is iterative: in each step, countries are redistributed in new subgroups and the process is terminated, when no subsequent superior redistribution is possible. Finally, the effective selection of subgroups of countries is chosen to minimize an appropriately defined objective function. Results of the proposed heuristic tests suggest that no dominant method exists. Therefore, an algorithm of chaining of alternative heuristic methods is proposed. After the solution is achieved with one method, an alternative method is imposed and the search for the optimal solution continues, until the objective function reaches its minimum. The proposed methodology is applied to estimate the gravity equation of foreign trade with the extension that permits to assign countries into optimally selected subgroups using the newly introduced algorithms.
Goodwinův predator-prey model s endogenním technologickým procesem
Vošvrda, Miloslav ; Kodera, Jan
Contemporary economics contains mainly two approaches for an explanation of fluctuations of economic activity indicators. A purpose of this paper is to derive from traditional Goodwin's model the predator-prey model with the specific function for technological progress.
Stabilita a Ljapunovovy exponenty v keynesianskych a klasickych makroekonomickych modelech
Kodera, Jan ; Sladký, Karel ; Vošvrda, Miloslav
In this article we compare dynamical properties of Keynesian and Classical macroeconomic models. We start with an extended dynamical IS-LM neoclassical model generating behaviour of the real product, interest rate, expected inflation and the price level over time. Limiting behaviour, stability, existence of limit cycles and other specific features of these models will be compared.
Extended Kalecki-Kaldor model revisited
Kodera, Jan ; Sladký, Karel ; Vošvrda, Miloslav
This contribution is devoted to an extended Kalecki-Kaldor model. Differential equations for the development of the real product (output) and capital stock of the economy are formulated for a given value of the inflation rate. A dynamical model of money market is considered either the LM model or the Fisherian model. Stability and robustness are analysed for the complete model.

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