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Macroeconometric Model of Monetary Policy
Čížek, Ondřej ; Pánková, Václava (advisor) ; Kodera, Jan (referee) ; Lukáš, Ladislav (referee)
First of all, general principals of contemporary macroeconometric models are described in this dissertation together with a brief sketch of alternative approaches. Consequently, the macroeconomic model of a monetary policy is formulated in order to describe fundamental relationships between real and nominal economy. The model originated from a linear one by making some of the parameters endogenous. Despite this nonlinearity, I expressed my model in a state space form with time-varying coefficients, which can be solved by a standard Kalman filter. Using outcomes of this algorithm, likelihood function was then calculated and maximized in order to obtain estimates of the parameters. The theory of identifiability of a parametric structure is also described. Finally, the presented theory is applied on the formulated model of the euro area. In this model, the European Central Bank was assumed to behave according to the Taylor rule. The econometric estimation, however, showed that this common assumption in macroeconomic modeling is not adequate in this case. The results from econometric estimation and analysis of identifiability also indicated that the interest rate policy of the European Central Bank has only a very limited effect on real economic activity of the European Union. Both results are influential, as monetary policy in the last two decades has been modeled as interest rate policy with the Taylor rule in most macroeconometric models.
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VÝKONNOST DOWNSIDE RISK MODELŮ POST-MODERNÍ TEORIE PORTFOLIA
Jablonský, Petr ; Málek, Jiří (advisor) ; Kodera, Jan (referee) ; Lukáš, Ladislav (referee)
The thesis provides a comparison of different portfolio models and tests their performance on the financial markets. Our analysis particularly focuses on comparison of the classical Markowitz modern portfolio theory and the downside risk models of the post-modern portfolio theory. In addition, we consider some alternative portfolio models ending with total eleven models that we test. If the performance of different portfolio models should be evaluated and compared correctly, we must use a measure that is unbiased to any portfolio theory. We suggest solving this issue via a new approach based on the utility theory and utility functions. We introduce the unbiased method for evaluation of the portfolio model performance using the expected utility efficient frontier. We use the asymmetric behavioural utility function to capture the behaviour of the real market investors. The Markowitz model is the leading market practice. We investigate whether there are any circumstances in which some other models might provide better performance than the Markowitz model. Our research is for three reasons unique. First, it provides a comprehensive comparison of broad classes of different portfolio models. Second, we focus on the developed markets in United States and Germany but also on the local emerging markets in Czech Republic and Poland. These local markets have never been tested in such extent before. Third, the empirical testing is based on the broad data set from 2003 to 2012 which enable us to test how different portfolio model perform in different macroeconomic conditions.
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Term Structure of Interest Rates: Macro-Finance Approach
Štork, Zbyněk ; Mandel, Martin (advisor) ; Kodera, Jan (referee) ; Vejmělek, Jan (referee)
Thesis focus on derivation of macro-finance model for analysis of yield curve and its dynamics using macroeconomic factors. Underlying model is based on basic Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium DSGE approach that stems from Real Business Cycle theory and New Keynesian Macroeconomics. The model includes four main building blocks: households, firms, government and central bank. Log-linearized solution of the model serves as an input for derivation of yield curve and its main determinants -- pricing kernel, price of risk and affine term structure of interest rates -- based on no-arbitrage assumption. The Thesis shows a possible way of consistent derivation of structural macro-finance model, with reasonable computational burden that allows for time varying term premia. A simple VAR model, widely used in macro-finance literature, serves as a benchmark. The paper also presents a brief comparison and shows an ability of both models to fit an average yield curve observed from the data. Lastly, the importance of term structure analysis is demonstrated using case of Central Bank deciding about policy rate and Government conducting debt management.
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Česká swapová křivka, ekonomické fundamenty a finanční trhy
Pohl, Martin ; Málek, Jiří (advisor) ; Kodera, Jan (referee) ; Lukáš, Ladislav (referee)
We focus on Czech swap market in a broader context of economic and financial development and we provide extensive empirical evidence that swaps have many features of a "risk-free" asset. They are traded with sufficient liquidity and low transaction costs that make them attractive for investors. Swap curve dynamics may be decomposed into level, slope and curvature parameters known from bond markets.Level and slope parameter may be interpreted by Taylor rule like functions in terms of output gap and inflation. Level reflects mainly inflation expectations and its sensitivity to output gap is small. Slope parameter is highly sensitive to business cycle fluctuations and inflation deviation from CNB's target. Domestic monetary policy remains an important determinant of swap curve parameters with gradual market reaction. Czech swap rates are closely connected to Euro swap rates. We found level factors to be cointegrated and also slope and curvature exhibit strong sensitivity to Euro rates. Financial variables don't seem to have large impact on swap rates with the exemption of global equity markets, where we found positive correlation between level and SP500 returns. In contrast, Czech government bonds have many features historically connected to corporate bonds such as positive correlation with risky assets and business cycle fluctuations. Government bonds also showed large volatility and rising risk premia in the 2008/2009 financial crisis. Finally, we estimated forward premium and we found large and rising premium and limited support for expectation theory.
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Monetary policy of the Federal Reserve System during financial and economic crisis
Babušák, Martin ; Mandel, Martin (advisor) ; Kodera, Jan (referee)
The aim of the thesis is to evaluate the effectiveness of measures taken by the Federal Reserve System in response to the 2007 financial crisis that was later joined by economic crisis. It analyzes effects caused by modification of existing programs, creation of new credit programs, support of systemically important institutions by the Fed and programs of outright purchase of selected assets on the open market. The thesis also examines the behavior of the Fed in setting of a target interest rate in longer term, from 2000 to 2011. The thesis verifies the validity of the Taylor rule of monetary policy by using regression analysis. Appendix at the end of the thesis emphasizes the importance of the U.S. dollar in the current international monetary system and the associated implications for the external stability of the U.S. economy.
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Analysis of Financial Data Applying Methods of Econophysics
Šubrt, Jiří ; Kodera, Jan (advisor) ; Málek, Jiří (referee)
For financial forcasting of crisis new concepts from disciplines dissimilar to economics are looked for by financial experts. The branch of econophysics using theories of natural sciences is significant. The meaning of this work is to point out one of many methods applied to financial data with help of the theory of turbulence of fluids and deterministic chaos. We provide a parallel analysis of high frequency financial time series of a stock index and velocities of a turbulent fluid. This work concerns the use of concepts from statistical mathematics, probability theory and scaling. We find differences of both studied systems but the methodologies of natural diciplines can be also applied to financial data.
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Ocenění a zajíštění měnových bariérových opcí
Mertlík, Jakub ; Radová, Jarmila (advisor) ; Kodera, Jan (referee) ; Scevenels, Dirk (referee)
The main aim of this thesis is in analyzing and empirically testing the various valuation models and hedging schemes of foreign exchange barrier options and their robustness with respect to changing of market conditions. The purpose of the main empirical section is to get a detailed understanding of the static and dynamic performance of the analyzed models for the barrier options payoff mainly in the extreme market conditions, where we performed a benchmarking of the various hedging schemes. As a by-product, we analyzed the accomplishment of some of the model assumptions in real world setting, and the model dependency of the barrier options.
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Výnosová křivka neumožňující arbitráž
Dobiáš, Vladimír ; Kodera, Jan (advisor) ; Pelikán, Jan (referee) ; O Sullivan, Conall (referee)
We address the issue of market incompleteness in the time dimension. Specifically, we focus on interest rate markets and the yield curve extraction. The lack of information about interest rates manifest itself in a non-invertible linear system. The usual approach to circumvent this problem is by applying various curve fitting methods - both parametric and non-parametric. We argue in favor of a novel method relying on information theory, which reformulates the ill-posed linear algebra problem into a well-posed optimization problem, where the linear pricing equations are used as constraints. Local cross entropy is used to determine the optimal solution among the admissible solutions, while all the input prices reflected in constraints are perfectly matched. Large-scale optimization package called AMPL is used extensively throughout this work to obtain the optimal solution as well as to demonstrate the implementation details.
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The impact of demographic changes on the real interest rate and international capital flows.
Dybczak, Kamil ; Kodera, Jan (advisor) ; Izák, Vratislav (referee) ; Šmídková, Kateřina (referee)
The demographic structure seems to change dramatically over the next 50 years in the Czech Republic. The aim of this study is to assess the impact of expected demographic changes on the future development of a real interest rate and international capital flows. In order to simulate the impact of the expected demographic changes upon the mentioned variables we apply a computable overlapping generations model. The real interest rate development is simulated under a closed economy assumption. As a result of the future expected demographic changes labour-capital ratio tends to fall, i.e. the real interest rate diminishes. The range of a change is significantly affected by a public budget closure rule. In case of an endogenous income tax rate, the real interest rate falls down by 0.5 percentage point. On the contrary, the real interest rate decreases by almost 1 percentage point in case when public transfers adjusted. Assuming an open economy, we simulate the impact of the expected demographic changes on the international capital flows between the domestic economy and the rest of the world. In case of increasing ratio of older agents, the aggregate domestic wealth surpasses the demand for capital by domestic firms. As a result a part of domestic capital is exported abroad. Increasing level of net foreign assets contributes to positive change in ratio of the balance of payment to the domestic production in a range from 2 to 5 percentage points over next 40 years if income taxes or public transfers change respectively.
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Electricity market model of the Czech Republic
Kubát, Jan ; Pelikán, Jan (advisor) ; Kodera, Jan (referee) ; Marvan, Miroslav (referee)
A competitive electricity market has been established in many European countries including the Czech Republic. The electricity market includes a limited number of significant producers and traders, which can be described by oligopoly model. Since the electricity transmission and distribution are regulated, I consider two types of players performing in the electricity market: producers of electricity and traders, who buy electricity from producers and sell it to final customers. I derive oligopoly model with producers and traders "a la Cournot" and calculate a formula of equilibrium strategies. I use these theoretical findings to build a dynamic oligopoly model Ele. Ele is formulated as a mixed complementary problem and calibrated on data for the Czech Republic and neighbor states for several scenarios. The model was specified and calculated in GAMS software by the PATH solver. The results represent a Nash equilibrium. That means for individual producers: electricity generation, investment in new power plants construction and emission permits purchases. For traders the results are: equilibrium purchases, sales and cross-border transfers of electricity in each particular time period. Ele derives also equilibrium regional wholesale and retail electricity prices, emission permit prices and prices of cross-border auctions. Ele results point to an economic profitability of new nuclear power plants constructions. Further, I formulate a game in short-term electricity market, where I advise to Czech market participants, subjects of settlement, how much and in which circumstances to buy or sell electricity. Equilibrium results obtained through simulations based on the principle of a fictive game show that the current payment system of imbalance in the Czech Republic does not increase the risk of instability of electricity networks.
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