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Can We Consider Inflation as a Suitable Indicator of Inflation?
Kloudová, Dana ; Hudík, Marek (advisor) ; Mičúch, Marek (referee)
Output gap belongs to standard indicators of inflationary pressures used in central banks. The aim of this paper is to find the answer to the question, whether we can consider output gap as a suitable indicator of inflation for the Czech economy. First hypothesis, which we analysed is that we can estimate output gap only with uncertainty. For confirmation or refutation of this hypothesis we used ten models of estimation of output gap. The second hypothesis is that output gap can be used as suitable indicator of inflation. For testing of this hypothesis we chose gap model from Coe, McDetmott (1997) -- with the level of output gap and the change (difference) of output gap. All tests confirmed, that central bank can use inflation as a useful indicator of inflation.
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Application of Problems of Macroeconomic Disequilibrium: Outline of Run of Business Cycle in the Economy of Germany in the Years 1990 - 2006
Kloudová, Dana ; Janíčko, Martin (advisor) ; Hudík, Marek (referee)
This bachelor thesis deals with the business cycle phenoma. First part is theoretical and is focused on characteristics of business cycles, especially on investigating causes of economic fluctuations (demand and supply shocks), types, phases, and history of business cycles. Then, monitoring and analysis of business cycle follow, when the indicators of internal and external disequilibrium is to analysed. From indicators of the internal disequilibrium a very special focus is put on inflation rate, difference between real output and potential output (output gap), and unemployment rate. External disequilibrium is analysed through the current account balance as a percentage of GDP. Next chapter of the theoretical part is dedicated to aggregate demand and its components, aggregate supply and macroeconomic (dis)equilibrium. In this work the attention is paid to both fiscal and monetary policy, which can substantially influence length and behaviour of a business cycle. Second part is analytical and addresses business cycle in the economy of Germany since its reunification (1990) to 2006. This time period is separated into several parts. Every part is specific and will be analysed separately. Selected macroeconomic indicators are also to analysed by econometric models, and then their influence on the behaviour of the business cycle is evaluated. In conclusion, a broad prospect of the future business cycle development is outlined.
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