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National Repository of Grey Literature 2 records found  Search took 0.01 seconds. 
Analysis of a Behavioral New Keynesian Model
 Křížková, Šárka ; Kukačka, Jiří (advisor) ; Hlaváček, Michal (referee)
The thesis focuses on the analysis of a Behavioral New Keynesian DSGE model. In particular, various specifications of the model are collected from the existing literature and their combinations are simulated. The specifications include heuristics for forecasting output gap, sets of estimated or calibrated parameters and model structures. The resulting simulated output and inflation gap series are compared with the macroeconomic stylized facts and real world data from the US and Euro area based on their distributional characteristics and autocorrelation structures. In addition, a comparison of various simulated model specifications is performed based on the level of correlation between fractions of agents following a specific heuristic and the resulting output and inflation gap values. The distributional characteristics of the US output gap seem to be matched the best by the specifications with unbiased and extrapolative output gap heuristics generating series with higher levels of variance and kurtosis. Contrarily, the Euro output gap is best matched by specifications with optimistic, pessimistic and unbi- ased heuristics producing series with lower levels of variance and kurtosis. Second, the autocorrelation structure of the simulated series tends to mirror the stylized facts as opposed to the...
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Behavioral finance explaining excessive volatility of returns on financial instruments
 Křížková, Šárka ; Kameníček, Jiří (advisor) ; Hayat, Arshad (referee)
The main focus of this thesis is to comprehensively describe the area of research called Behavioral finance and to point out a theory which has existed over 30 years but it is still not further developed: the Prospect theory. It has an application in many areas including finance - the major of this work. The thesis analyses the volatility of returns on futures contracts on cotton, crude oil and S&P 500 index using ARCH type models. The analysis confirms an asymmetric leverage effect of returns on volatility of all of the three contracts which corroborates a loss aversion in the decision making of investors, one of the main features of Prospect theory. On the other hand a measure of investor sentiment defined using open interest information incorporated in the model to directly capture investors reactions proved to be a weak tool. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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