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Contemporary measures of financial risk
Leder, Ondřej ; Hurt, Jan (advisor) ; Zichová, Jitka (referee)
The main goal of this work is to talk about some financial risks and to introduce some methods of measuring them. The most important part of this work is the value at risk, its extension in form of conditional value at risk and introduction of some of its possible alternatives, which are expectile and spectral risk measures. For this it is needed to give a theoretical framework from the theory of probability. Its goal is to show the similarity of expectile and quantile, because value at risk is practicaly a quantile. Another goal of this fork is to show some weak properties of VaR and to practically illustrate the possibility of using expectile as an alternative to VaR. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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Basic Multivariate Distributions
Sýkorová, Sabina ; Kulich, Michal (advisor) ; Hurt, Jan (referee)
The thesis deals with the basic discrete and continuous multivariate distributions, which play an important role in statistical analyses of models in applied fields. It focuses mainly on the derivation of these distributions using various techniques by which univariate distributions are generalized to higher dimensions. At the beginning of the thesis the multivariate normal distribution is defined, than it deals with distributions that are derived by direct generalization of univariate distributions. These are multivariate log-normal, multivariate Student's, multivariate Pareto, Dirichlet, and multinomial distributions. Furthermore it describes a common components method by which a multivariate Poisson distribution and a multivariate gamma distribution are derived. In the last chapter we introduce a multivariate exponential distribution derived by a stochastic generalization technique.
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Estimation of the survival function in the reliability analysis
Vojtěch, Jonáš ; Novák, Petr (advisor) ; Hurt, Jan (referee)
Present Bachelor thesis deals with the basic concepts and methods used in the survival analysis. Both nonparametric and parametric approaches to the estimation of the survival function are described. Nonparametric Kaplan Meier method is presented in order to estimate the survival function and consequently derive its basic properties. From the point of the probability distributions used in the analysis of reliability, exponential, Weibull's and logarithmic-normal distri- butions are applied. Parameters in the parametric approach to the estimation of the survival function are determined by the modification of maximum likelihood method for censored data. From the tests that are proper for the comparison of distribution of the duration of survival of more groups, nonparametric logrank test and parametric likelihood ratio test are mentioned. In the last section of the Bachelor thesis the theoretical findings are illustrated on simulated as well as actual data using Mathematica 9. Keywords: survival function, Kaplan-Meier estimator, logrank test, maximum likelihood method, likelihood-ratio test 1 Literatura 2 Seznam obrázků 3 Seznam tabulek 4
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Barrier options pricing
Macháček, Adam ; Witzany, Jiří (advisor) ; Hurt, Jan (referee)
In the presented thesis we study three methods of pricing European currency barrier options. With help of these methods we value selected barrier options with underlying asset EUR/CZK. In the first chapter we introduce the basic definitions from the world of financial derivatives and we describe our data. In the second chapter we deal with the classical model based on geometric Brownian motion of underlying asset and we prove a theorem of valuating Up-In-barrier option in this model. In the third chapter we introduce a model with stochastic volatility, the Heston model. We calibrate this model to market data and we use it to value our barrier options. In the last chapter we describe a jump diffusion model. Again we calibrate this jump diffusion model to market data and price our barrier options. The aim of this thesis is to decribe and to compare different methods of valuating barrier options. 1
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Portfolios behaviour on efficient and inefficient markets
Kováčová, Iveta ; Hurt, Jan (advisor) ; Zichová, Jitka (referee)
Title: Portfolios behaviour on efficient and inefficient markets Author: Iveta Kováčová Department: Department of Probability and Mathematical Statistics Supervisor: Doc. RNDr. Jan Hurt, CSc., KPMS MFF UK Abstract: In this thesis we summarize the results concerning the construction of optimal portfolios. We introduce the geometric representation of the portfolios in the case that the assumptions about an efficient market are violated. We perform a technical analysis of the portfolio on the given data by using the program Mathematica 8.0. and compare an efficient set of the portfolio at different investment strategies.
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Modelling of yield curves
Šmejkal, Jan ; Hurt, Jan (advisor) ; Zichová, Jitka (referee)
In practice, yield curves, i.e. plots of relation between yields and times to maturity for a group of comparable securities, are an important tool for assets and liabilities pricing as well as for financial decision making. The theoretical risk-free yield curve represents the term structure of interest rates that are used e.g. in insurance industry for pricing the liabilities, for which reserves are created, or also as a benchmark for pricing other assets in the market. When constructing the yield curve, it is not possible to observe yields of a group of assets for all maturities. That is why we use various mathematical methods which enable us to construct the yield curve also for unobserved maturities. In this thesis, some of these methods are introduced. The Svensson's method is one of the most important and frequently used ones. We use this method to derive the coupon curve from Czech government bonds aiming to construct the risk-free zero coupon yield curve. Later on, we use different weights for particular bonds trying to improve pricing of all the bonds based on the derived curve. Then, we also look for the curve that minimizes the mean squared error of estimated (compared to observed) prices. Because problems with liquidity can appear especially for long maturities, we apply all of the procedures to a...
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Markowitz model with constraints
Němec, Jan ; Lachout, Petr (advisor) ; Hurt, Jan (referee)
Title: Markowitz model with constrains Author: Jan Němec Department: Department of Probability and Mathematical Statistics Supervisor: doc. RNDr. Petr Lachout, CSc. Abstract: Composition of an optimal portfolio from available tradable comodities is very frequntly a discussed issue. One model, which considers not only the yield of the portfolio, but also its risk, is Markowitz model. Bachelor thesis will consider this ap- proach in cases when the searched portfolio is bounded with additional restrictions. This thesis will primarily address the constraints that are determined by legislation to conduct various banking entities investing in the stock market. Keywords: Markowitz model, portfolio constraints, banking regulation 1
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Credit Default Swap
Kratochvíl, Matěj ; Chudoba, Martin (advisor) ; Hurt, Jan (referee)
of the Bachelor Thesis Title: Credit Default Swap Author: Matěj Kratochvíl Department: Department of Probability and Mathematical Statistics Supervisor: Mgr. et Mgr. Martin Chudoba Abstract: The thesis deals with basic credit derivative - credit default swap. The aim of the first part is to explain its mechanism, contract elements, settlement, and to show practical examples of investment. The second part attempts to clarify how the arbitrage possibilities between bond market and credit derivatives market drive credit default swap prices to a certain range. Further there is presented a simple pricing model and possibilities of its exploitation. Examples are provided for better understanding. The third part focuses on counterparty default risk in credit default swap. Keywords: CDS, default intensity, credit risk
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One factor models of interest rates
Jambor, Matúš ; Myška, Petr (advisor) ; Hurt, Jan (referee)
Title: One factor interest rate models Author: Matúš Jambor Department: Department of Probability and Mathematical Statistics Supervisor: RNDr. Petr Myška Abstract: In this thesis we looked closely at the models of interest rates that are applied in the area of financial mathematics and actuarial sciences. There are several models that try to describe the behavior of yield curve plausibly. In most of the cases the models stem from probability theory and coincidence. These models are also means for assessment of financial derivates whose price de- pends on the interest rates movements. The work deals with three one-factor models which are analyzed into more details in the second chapter. The last chapter is about real-data calibration. Keywords: one factor models, interest rates, maximum likelihood method 1
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