|
|
Assessing the Fiscal Sustainability of the Czech Republic
Ambriško, Róbert ; Dingová, Vilma ; Dvořák, Michal ; Hájková, Dana ; Hromádková, Eva ; Kulhavá, Kamila ; Štiková, Radka
We present a model of public finance for the Czech Republic that addresses the main sources of risks to long-term fiscal sustainability: ageing-related expenditures and revenues, and the corresponding evolution of government debt. The baseline model is based on recent demographic projections issued by the Czech Statistical Office that forecast a shrinking share of the working-age population. Along with regulations and microeconomic incentives embedded in the tax and expenditure systems, demographic developments will affect economic growth and government expenditure and revenues in the long run. Population ageing is found to have a significant impact on future government expenditure via spending on old-age pensions and health care, where the cost profiles are modelled to reflect technological progress in the treatment of ageing-related illnesses. The analysis shows that under the current policy settings, a compound demographic effect will cause the primary government balance to turn negative at the beginning of the 2030s. The growing primary deficits, along with interest payments, which react to debt dynamics, will lead to a rapid escalation of government debt. While the outcome of the model is dependent on the specific settings of macroeconomic trends and policy variables, our wide range of sensitivity analyses show that without a policy response, even the most optimistic population scenario delivers an unsustainable path for public finances.
Fulltext:  PDF
|
|
|
Essays on cost-containment measures in health care
Hromádková, Eva ; Filer, Randall (advisor) ; Deb, Partha (referee) ; Kaestner, Robert (referee)
The topic of this dissertation is cost-containment measures in health care and their effects on various aspects of a patient's behavior. The dissertation consists of three chapters. In the first chapter I assess the ability of gatekeeping restrictions within insurance plans to control the utilization of medical care through their influence on the choice of the initial provider. Empirical results are based on individual-level utilization panel data from the 2001-2006 US Medical Expenditure Panel Survey. I find only small differences between the types of initial provider chosen by individuals enrolled in gatekeeping and non-gatekeeping plans. Further, within gatekeeping plans, 21 percent of patients self-refer to specialists. Taken together, these findings imply that the intended cost-containment of gatekeeping - restriction of the utilization of specialist care - is surprisingly weak. The second and third chapters make use of a unique natural experiment - a policy change that implemented patient cost-sharing in the Czech Republic starting in 2008. In the second chapter, my coauthor and I investigate the effects of the introduction of lump sum copayments on the utilization of prescription drugs by elderly patients. We find that after the introduction of copayments the number of...
|
|
|
Determinants of income inequality in post-communist Central and Eastern European countries: Role of corruption
Samanchuk, Khrystyna ; Hromádková, Eva (advisor) ; Serdarevič, Goran (referee)
The main purpose of this thesis is to investigate the effect of corruption on income inequality (that could serve as indicator of the welfare of whole society). Since post-communist countries of Central and Eastern Europe had issues with providing effective policies for adapting to the market economy, we want to discover main drivers of this situation. We examined previous researches that suggest both positive and negative correlation between corruption level and income inequality. Main obstacle of the research is inherent heterogeneity present across countries. Our analysis was performed on two datasets: 11 post- communist countries CEE and additional 17 European Union countries. We implemented different estimation methods and discovered that panel Vector autoregressive model is the best choice. Within the panel structure we tackled individual heterogeneity by estimating fixed effects and clustering on the country level, implemented dynamic relationship in the dependent variable and solved endogeneity problem by using instrumental variable. We found that corruption has positive relationship with income inequality. Furthermore, other important drivers are: social spending, education level and unemployment. As a result, we suggested the ways to decrease corruption on the appropriate example of...
|
|
| |
guest ::
