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Inflation: Predictive Power of Google Trends Data
Suchánek, Jan ; Stráský, Josef (advisor) ; Holub, Tomáš (referee)
This thesis explores the utility of Google Trends data in enhancing predictive power accuracy of ARIMA models for forecasting inflation in the Czech republic. The research was structured to address two core hypotheses: the rationality of inflation expectations as reflected in Google Trends search queries and the ability of the data to augment the predictive power of traditional inflation forecasting models. Our findings indicate that Google Trends data, when incorporated as an ex- ternal regressor in ARIMA models, significantly improve the model's predictive accuracy, especially in periods characterized by high inflation rates and eco- nomic turbulence. This provides evidence for the claim that Google Trends is able to effectively capture shifts in consumer sentiment and expectations. However, the study acknowledges limitations, including the specificity of the time domains analyzed and the exclusive focus on the Czech Republic. These factors may limit the generalizability of the results. In summary, this thesis contributes to the evolving field of economic fore- casting by demonstrating the value of integrating unconventional digital data sources like Google Trends into traditional econometric models. It opens av- enues for future research to explore the broader applicability of such data in...
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Poverty, Inequality and Economic Growth: the Case of Post-Soviet Countries
Ren, Jiayi ; Holub, Tomáš (advisor) ; Li, Yating (referee) ; Svoboda, Karel (referee)
This paper empirically examines the triangular relationship between poverty, growth, and income inequality in 13 post-Soviet countries between 1998 and 2020. Regression results reveal that economic growth has a significant negative impact on poverty while income inequality has a significant positive impact on poverty. Initial conditions (both initial economic growth and initial income inequality) matter in explaining the change of poverty. Poverty tends to be more responsive to the change of income inequality. Growth effect and inequality effect varied across different subgroups. Moreover, mutual causality has been found between poverty and income inequality while the unidirectional impact of income inequality on growth is inverted- U shaped. Finally, a significant moderation effect of economic growth on the linkage between poverty and income inequality has been found.
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The impact of Monetary Policy on the Economic Growth of the Czech Republic
Khalilova, Solmaz ; Holub, Tomáš (advisor) ; Horváth, Roman (referee)
This study deals with the impact of monetary policy on the economic growth of the Czech Republic. The subject of this thesis is the examination of monetary policy of the Czech Republic in the period 2001-2022. The main focus of the thesis is based on investigating the potential impact of monetary policy on the economic growth in this country. Quarterly data for the Czech Republic economy for the 2001Q1-2022Q3 period was used in the study. Whether the monetary policy is effective in the Czech Republic has been examined using VAR analysis. According to the results obtained, the effectiveness of monetary policy instruments in the Czech Republic varies periodically. According to the findings, an increase in real GDP was observed after COVID-19. This indicates that monetary policy instruments generally have a positive effect on the economic growth of the country. JEL Classification: Keywords: Title : E31, E42, E50, E52, E58 Monetary Policy, Economic Growth, Czech Republic The Impact of Monetary Policy on The Economic Growth of the Czech Republic
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Assessing the determinants of inflation rate in European countries
Wu, Wanru ; Holub, Tomáš (advisor) ; Dědek, Oldřich (referee)
This thesis assesses the determinants of inflation rate in European countries, including data from 2010 to 2022. The existing research didn't include data during the pandemic and war between Russia and Ukraine, two crises causing unexpected rises in the inflation rate. Using panel data in R studio, the results suggest that GDP per capita influences inflation the most, oil price also plays an important role, and the base interest rate and unemployment rate also influence the inflation rate. In addition, GDP per capita is a negatively related variable. The unemployment rate negatively affects the inflation rate. The change in oil price is positively related to the inflation rate, and it is the only positive variable.
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Monetary policy of oil-exporting countries with informality: a DSGE analysis of Iraq
Safar, Nour ; Holub, Tomáš (advisor) ; Dědek, Oldřich (referee)
The thesis investigates the efficiency of monetary policy using the New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (NKDSGE) model in an economy reliant on oil exports and a large informal sector. The model is calibrated for the Iraq case to capture macroeconomic variables' responses to oil price shocks. The study aims to explore the impact of the shock on macroeconomic variables in the presence of the informal sector and how responses might change assuming a small informal sector. The model shows that the informal economy increases home prices and inflation, but the model does not reveal a Dutch disease. The study concludes that monetary policy, represented by the Taylor rule, is an inefficient tool for affecting macroeconomic variables.
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Macroeconomic consequences of Covid-19 and the role of stabilisation policies
Karhánek, Tomáš ; Holub, Tomáš (advisor) ; Baxa, Jaromír (referee)
The thesis applies panel data analyses supported by vast stream of empirical literature with aim to capture and quantify effects of the monetary and fiscal stabilization policies on the macroeconomic indicators during COVID-19 pandemic, while also comparing effects of UMP and CMP monetary regimes. The results show that both the monetary and fiscal stabilization policies had positive and statistically significant impact on the real GDP growth. On the other hand, the effect of the stabilization policies did not have significant effect on the inflation during 2020-2021. The thesis also presents a small subsample of forecasting utilizing properties of VECM and comparing recovery paths of 3 European countries with different monetary regimes. We also conclude that there is no significant difference between monetary regimes utilizing UMP or CMP in terms of effectivity of the GDP growth stimulus and recovery paths of the macroeconomic indicators. Furthermore, we have concluded that the GDP sectoral composition played an important role in the economic impact on the country as countries with larger share of services suffered larger decrease of the real GDP and countries with large industrial sector faced higher inflation due to supply chain disturbtion. JEL Classification E52, E31, E470, H51, H68, H61...
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Prospects of Monetary Integration in the ASEAN
Juhás, Šimon ; Holub, Tomáš (advisor) ; Ehrenbergerová, Dominika (referee)
The thesis examines the suitability of the ASEAN region for a currency union. The evaluation is conducted primarily through a model developed by Bayoumi and Eichengreen (1996b), used by them originally to assess the prospects of European currency integration. The equation of this model is first estimated anew using a sample focused on Asia containing data from the last decade. The resulting equation, despite problems linked with certain coefficients, is used to construct the OCA indexes, which in turn serve as the basis for assessing the preparedness of the ASEAN for a single currency. The discussion of the results concludes overall rather against the idea of a monetary union in Southeast Asia. Malaysia and Singapore are identified as having notably better chances of forming a successful currency union according to the value of the corresponding index. Besides this analysis, commentaries on several factors crucially linked with the issue of monetary integration are provided. This includes an overview of Southeast Asia's developments concerning the factors, which are used for evaluating adherence to the Maastricht criteria in Europe. Throughout the thesis, numerous indicators are found, which suggest that a monetary union in the ASEAN might currently not be considered a desirable option.
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Two Essays on Inflation Targeting
Matějů, Jakub ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Holub, Tomáš (referee)
Title: Two Essays on Inflation Targeting Author: Mgr. Jakub Matějů Department: Institute of Economic Studies Supervisor: Roman Horváth, PhD. Abstract: The thesis consists of two essays on inflation targeting. The first essay examines how do monetary authorities set their inflation targets. Survey of central banks' communication regarding the target is presented, theoretical model is developed and finally empirical analysis is conducted on a panel of inflation targeting countries. This pioneering analysis of the topic leads us to conclusion that inflation targets are influenced by more variables than central banks admit. In addition to past and foreign inflation, inflation variability and GDP growth we find significant impact of central bank credibility and other institutional factors. The short second essay surveys literature assessing performance of inflation targeting and outlines perspectives of inflation targeting as a monetary policy framework. The conclusion is that if inflation targeting central banks stick to their best practice in transparency and communication and remain open to innovations, inflation targeting will have a good chance to score well even in the periods of turmoil.
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Life time of climbing ropes for climbing a rappeling on the artificial wall
Kužel, Martin ; Vomáčko, Ladislav (advisor) ; Holub, Tomáš (referee)
Title: Utilization of Modern Methods of Immobilization (casts), at Individuals with an Injury of Locomotive System, in The Czech Republic Objectives: The main objective of this thesis is to bring an actual information about proportion of using casts, in comparison with other methods of conservative immobilization, at individuals with an injury of locomotive system, in The Czech Republic. Moreover, the work aims to identify 3 most frequent reasons for using cast and 3 reasons for not using it. Methods: There is a sample of respondents, selected from professionals dealing with a treatment of locomotive system (n = 204). The sample consists of medical doctors working in hospitals (n = 67) as well as doctors working in out-patient ambulatory care segment (n = 137). With respect to doctors specialization, the sample consits of surgeons (n = 141) and orthopaedists (n = 63). Selection of the sample of respondents was randomized. Data were gathered by telephonic questioning (interview). Based on quantitative analysis of the data, both - relative usage of casts and three reasons supporting or limiting its utilization - were identified. The questionnaire was finalized, with respect to outcomes of an initial pilot study (n = 4). Respondents for the pilot study were chosen by quote selection. Results: Plaster...
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