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Political Cycles and Their Impact on Macroeconomic Indicators in the Central Europe
Botka, Jan ; Hlaváček, Michal (advisor) ; Buliskeria, Nino (referee)
This study examines the impact of the political cycle on macroeconomic indica- tors in Central Europe, with a special focus on the Czech Republic. Thirty-nine Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models were constructed using data from 1998 to 2022 aiming to apply the Political Business Cycle (PBC) theory. It is the frst time the VAR model has been used in this context for most of the selected countries. As the main variables in the model, subject to potential infuence by political cycles, were chosen real GDP, infation and unemployment. The results showed that no consistent signifcant relationship exists across all coun- tries, with each nation displaying varying connections and occasional contra- dictions to the presupposed theory. Nevertheless, certain associations between the political cycle and macroeconomic indicators were observed in individual countries, supporting the presence of the PBC to some extent in the Czech Re- public, Hungary, and Austria. Conversely, no evidence or even contradictory results were found for the PBC in Slovakia, Poland, and Germany. Addition- ally, the presence of the "partisan" political cycle was identifed in Hungary but not in the Czech Republic, Germany, or Austria. Poland's signifcant results exhibited signs opposite to those expected. This research opens new...
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Determinants of the Residential Real Estate Prices in Selected EU Countries
Rákosníková, Andrea ; Hlaváček, Michal (advisor) ; Schwarz, Jiří (referee)
This thesis aims to identify the determinants of real housing prices in the 13 newest EU member states. Determinants were identified using individual time series and aggregate panel analyses to ensure the best results. Cointegrating relationships were confirmed through testing and factored into the choice of estimation methods. The time series regression was done using the VECM, and the same method was used to test the theory that the capitals are the price leaders in housing markets. Results revealed that this effect is limited to only some markets, particularly affecting Czechia and Slovakia. Panel analyses, done using the PDOLS and ECM, were used to examine determinants and the speed of convergence of variables to equilibrium. The results of the aggregate panel regression showed that numerous determinants, namely the construction prices, GDP, number of housing permits, rents, and population, affect housing prices significantly. However, area-specific panels and time series models highlighted significant variations in results across countries. For example, GDP is not a significant determinant in V4 countries, while its effect is vital for the Balkans. The most surprising results were observed for Cyprus and Malta, where the relationships between the prices and determinants seem to be distorted by...
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Fiscal policy and inflation: The case of the Czech Republic
Slaba, Martin ; Kočenda, Evžen (advisor) ; Hlaváček, Michal (referee)
This thesis investigates the relationship between government spending and inflation in the Czech Republic. We estimate a block-restriction VAR model in several specifications. The model confirmed the prediction of the Fiscal Theory of Price Level, that a shock to government spending will produce an inflationary response. However, the impulse responses are in all specifications insignificant or borderline significant. Second part of the thesis utilizes a non- econometric analysis to examine the post-covid inflationary period. The conclusion of this analysis is that the expansionary government spending combined with a tax cut provided the population with significant disposable income at a time when the economic output was compressed and consumption was severely restricted due to the lockdowns. The forcibly delayed consumption lead to an unprecedented increase in savings of both household and firms. The drawdown of these savings once the restrictions were lifted created demand-side inflationary pressures. The supply-side shock that came with the the war in Ukraine only enhanced the already heightened inflation.
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Link between inflation and stock prices in selected countries
Gregor, Jiří ; Kočenda, Evžen (advisor) ; Hlaváček, Michal (referee)
In macroeconomics, inflation is a significant factor that refers to the overall increase in the prices of goods and services in an economy. The relationship between inflation and stock prices has been the subject of several studies, but there is still no clear consensus on whether the link is positive or negative. This thesis aims to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the relationship between inflation and stock returns in three specific countries - Japan, Turkey, and Argentina. These countries have experienced abnormal inflationary situations throughout history, making them interesting case studies for understanding the underlying relationship between stock prices and inflation. JEL Classification E31, E37, G12, G17 Keywords inflation, returns, linear regression, link between in- flation and stock prices Title Link between inflation and stock prices in selected countries
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Real Estate as a Hedge against Inflation
Pivoňková, Alexandra ; Streblov, Pavel (advisor) ; Hlaváček, Michal (referee)
In recent years, real estate has gained vast popularity as an investment tool, as it has exhibited attractive returns both in its direct, and indirect form. Investments are generally sought after for their potential for profit generation as well as protection from the loss of purchasing power of one's capital. The extent to which individual assets hedge investors from inflation has become a widely discussed topic with conclusions varying across different studies. This thesis endeavors to update the research by observing asset returns and inflation in 4 countries, the Czech Republic, Switzerland, the USA, and China, and analyzing the performance of individual assets in terms of inflation hedging by employing the latest data in a regression model. The studied period covers Q1 2009 - Q3 2022, where all data are in the form of annual returns, benched by individual quarters. With the main focus on real estate, comparison with the performance of other assets is included, namely bonds issued by governments of the observed countries, REITs performance, represented by the FTSE EPRA Developed Index, and stock returns, in the form of the S&P 500 index. The study then categorizes each investment tool based on its inflation-hedging properties. JEL Classification: G11, E31, R30, HR39 Keywords: inflation, hedge,...
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Uncertainty and House Prices: Empirical Evidence
Kos, Jiří ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Hlaváček, Michal (referee)
This thesis studies the relationship between house prices, economic fundamen- tals and uncertainty using panel data from 10 OECD member countries and time series data from the United States. Traditional techniques, such as coin- tegration testing, are used to find a possible long-run link between house prices and their determinants. Employing both single-equation ARDL and multi- equation VEC models, we find evidence of a possible long-run relationship between house prices and fundamentals in the panel data. The results from the time series analysis are inconclusive, mostly leaning towards no presence of cointegration. A measure of interest rate is a vital determinant in most mod- els., while income does not exhibit a long-run connection with house prices. Moreover, results indicate the importance of uncertainty in determining house price dynamics, exhibiting both negative and positive effects. JEL Classification C22, D80, R20, R21, R28, R30, Keywords house prices, uncertainty, cointegration, eco- nomic fundamentals, interest rate Title Uncertainty and House Prices: Empirical Evi- dence
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