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The Evolution of Optimum Currency Area Index: Post-crisis Perspective
Kadlecová, Pavlína ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Geršl, Adam (referee)
This paper estimates the determinants of exchange rate variability for 21 developed economies in 1980-1998. The results show that traditional criteria implied by the optimum currency area (OCA) theory, such as business cycle synchronisation, trade linkages and economy size, determine to a large extent bilateral exchange rate variability. Using the ordinary least squares estimation, we compute OCA indices for European economies vis-à-vis Germany and identify countries showing consistently large or little signs of convergence. We find that since 1998, most European developed economies have converged to Germany whether or not they are using the euro, suggesting that structural similarity is not driven solely by monetary integration. Our results from the model estimated by the generalized method of moments suggest that two additional criteria reflecting labour market flexibility and private credit growth are significant in explaining the exchange rate variability and lead to a ranking of countries different from the traditional approach. We find a positive relationship between the OCA indices and GDP decline during the economic crisis of 2008-09, which further supports the view that the OCA index is a useful indicator of the candidates' readiness to join the Euro Area. We apply the results to the...
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The Determinants of Inflation Differentials across Central and Eastern European Countries
Gurbulea, Mihaela ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Geršl, Adam (referee)
The thesis aims at identifying the reasons behind the heterogeneous inflation performance of countries across Central and Eastern Europe. The impact of a large number of variables is being assessed in a dynamic panel data model covering 20 countries over the period 2003-2013. The empirical results suggest that cross-country differences in inflation are attributed to the structure of the economy, to the capital deepening effects and openness. Along with the structural factors, cyclical positions also prove to be of particular importance in explaining inflation across the region, since during the last decade most of the Central and Eastern European countries have experienced fast GDP growth, a credit boom and increased domestic demand that in turn fueled inflation.
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Cross-border effects of sovereign rating changes on bond yields before and during the Eurozone crisis
Zachar, Martin ; Schneider, Ondřej (advisor) ; Geršl, Adam (referee)
This paper looks into the contagion dynamics of sovereign credit rating changes with regards to bond yields in the period before and during the sovereign debt crisis in Europe. Our sample included European Union member countries, as well as a Eurozone subsample and a subsample excluding highly indebted countries. Events and outlooks from all three major rating agencies were considered. Our findings for the pre-crisis period are consistent with existing research, indicating an increase in borrowing costs by approximately five basis points in the case of a one-notch negative event, and insignificant effects in the case of positive events. During the crisis period, we observed a reversal of this effect, associating negative ratings with lower spreads on the entire sample. However, the effect was no longer significant when highly indebted countries were excluded from the sample, indicating that this effect may be tied to overly negative expectations. Lastly, we investigated the persistence of results, with only full-sample crisis period data displaying persistent effects. JEL Classification F01, F34, F42 Keywords credit rating, sovereign debt, default, debt crisis, European debt, sustainability Author's e-mail martin1703@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail schneider.ondrej@gmail.com
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Linkage between Exchange Rate and Foreign Direct Investments: Empirical evidence from Developing Countries
Hnath, Martin ; Geršl, Adam (advisor) ; Benáček, Vladimír (referee)
In this thesis we provide an updated empirical evidence on the linkage between an exchange rate and foreign direct investments (FDI). On the sample of 40 developing countries receiving FDI flows from five developed OECD econo- mies, we analyse how the strength of exchange rates, exchange rate volatility and currency regime affect FDI. Applying the Hausman-Taylor instrumental variable approach over the analysed period from 1991 to 2010, we have not found unanimous support on the role of exchange rates in influencing FDI. In the thesis, we document that over the last two decades, bilateral exchange rate volatility decreased and this can be assigned to its less-likely influence on FDI. In addition, based on the results of the analysis, we cannot confirm the wealth effect hypothesis that supposes an increase of FDI after real depreciation of developing country's currency. We ascribe this outcome to the development of average real exchange rates of developing countries that exhibited considerable strenghtening during the analysed period. We also find that de facto bilateral fixing of the currencies might be beneficial for FDI flows. The reasoning might lie in the reduction of transaction costs that is linked to credible exchange rates.
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Foreign Direct Investment in Emerging Markets: The Case of Turkey
Huseynli, Orkhan ; Geršl, Adam (advisor) ; Zeynalov, Ayaz (referee)
This paper studies determinants of FDI in Turkey using panel data analyses. The results of the study show that political stability, education level, rule of law, and trade cost have significant impact on FDI inflow in Turkey while similarity in economy size of home and host country (Turkey) has not. The effect of the trade cost and rule of law was surprising but it gave a clue to new research area. It was concluded that next studies of FDI determinants in Turkey must be conducted at firms' level to better understand the behaviour of foreign direct investments in the country.
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Capital Flows and Credit Development: Empirical Evidence from the CEE Region
Izák, Jan ; Geršl, Adam (advisor) ; Kraicová, Lucie (referee)
The aim of this bachelor thesis is to investigate the relationship between the structure of international capital flows and credit development in Central and Eastern Europe. Over last twenty years, the CEE region has often been a destination for capital flows from developed countries which have significantly influenced domestic economies. With respect to the rapid growth of credit over the same period, it makes sense to deal with this relationship in more detail. The data are analyzed separately for corporations and households as they experienced different credit development. In the analysis, I apply OLS and PCSE model on the quarterly data in the period 1997-2013. The results of the analysis imply the influence of FDI and OI inflows in both sectors but only negligible impact of PI inflows. However, the importance of FDI inflows have decreased over time. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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Determinants of Executive Compensation in Czech Companies
Keše, Tibor ; Geršl, Adam (advisor) ; Klinger, Tomáš (referee)
In this thesis we assess executive compensation in the Czech Republic. Our study adds to scarce literature written on this topic regarding the Czech environment. We analyze a dataset of 100 large Czech companies, we try to find the factors influencing income of Czech managers and we compare our results to existing empirical research. We found that factors such as company's size, performance or concentration and nature of ownership are determinants of the level of executive compensation. Furthermore, we find that annual growth in managerial income is to some extent sensitive to annual performance of the company. We conclude that the environment of executive compensation in the Czech Republic fits predictions of both underlying theories, optimal contracting and rent extraction view, and the compensation culture seems comparable to other countries. JEL Classification J31, M52, L25 Keywords Executive compensation, optimal contracting, rent extraction, performance sensitivity
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The importance of banking fee income in the EU banking industry - does market concentration matter?
Růžičková, Karolína ; Teplý, Petr (advisor) ; Geršl, Adam (referee)
This thesis deals with both theoretical and practical aspects of banking fee and commission income in the European Union. Since fee income represents the largest part of non-interest income earned by banks, it remains a major challenge for bank management to set and maintain an appropriate fee policy. Nevertheless, solving for the optimal fee structure has not yet been accomplished either on a theoretical level, or in actual practice. In the thesis, we analyse fee income in EU banking sectors. Our results show that the Czech banking sector was not abnormally dependent on fee income compared to other EU countries in the period 2007-2012. As a result, we argue that the high profitability of Czech banks cannot be attributed to abnormal banking fee and commission income, but rather other factors should be considered. Moreover, we study the determinants of fee income share in individual banks and discuss the impact of market concentration on the magnitude of banking fees. We conclude that banks facing higher competition tend to expand more aggressively into non-traditional activities and therefore they report higher fee income shares. We also study the relationship between banking fees and banks' performance in terms of profit and risk. The results on profitability are mixed depending on applied...
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Impact of Stress Testing on Bank Risk
Dítě, Martin ; Geršl, Adam (advisor) ; Jakubík, Petr (referee)
This thesis studies the impact of macro stress testing on the riskiness of the participating banks. We use a dataset on 48 banks participating in either or both of the 2010 and 2011 EU exercises performed by the CEBS/EBA and 17 peer banks that did not participate. We find that early announcement of the 2010 stress test led to a temporary capitalization increase for the participating banks. We also find that disclosure of the 2011 exercise results caused a decline in capitalization for the participating banks. The results indicate that the way stress tests are prepared and communicated can strongly influence how banks react in terms of capitalization levels. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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Competition, efficiency and soundness in banking
Jankovská, Alžběta ; Geršl, Adam (advisor) ; Havránková, Zuzana (referee)
There is an ongoing debate whether the impact of competition on bank soundness is positive or negative. Traditionally, it was assumed that there is a trade-off between competition and bank soundness. On the other hand, some recent studies suggest that competition has a positive effect on bank soundness. In this thesis, we will focus on the concept of efficiency as a possible link between competition and bank soundness. Firstly, we will summarize different approaches to measure competition, efficiency and soundness in banking sector. Subsequently, we will focus on hypotheses formulated to describe the link between competition in financial sector and bank soundness, between efficiency and bank soundness and between bank competition and efficiency. The empirical part, we will examine whether there is a link between competition and soundness via efficiency channel. Our analysis is based on dataset contains commercial banks from Visegrad group during period 2008 - 2012. We will exploit the Boone indicator as a measure of competition, the SFA approach to obtain efficiency score and soundness will be derived from z-score. The empirical evidence confirmed the positive link between competition and bank soundness via efficiency channel.
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