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Interaction between Macroprudential and Monetary Policies, and Bank Runs
Kolomazníková, Barbora ; Hlaváček, Michal (advisor) ; Geršl, Adam (referee)
The thesis focuses on the interaction between macroprudential and monetary policies in the presence of bank runs. In particular, it is examined whether the two policies should be conducted separately or jointly, and whether the occurence of a bank run affects the result. Furthermore, it is studied how a bank run impacts the efficiency of the two policies. \\ The baseline results suggest that cooperation between the two policies is less efficient than when they are determined separately. The reason might be a coordination issue that arises because the same objective is being assigned to both policies in the cooperative case. On the other hand, when facing a bank run the cooperative regime achieves a higher degree of financial stability by reducing the probability of a next run. This is caused by the fact that cooperating authorities choose more aggresive macroprudential policy when a bank run occurs. A bank run itself does not change the ranking of the two policy regimes. However, an occurence of a bank run induces higher efficiency of both policies, irrespective of the regime in place. In addition, the policies are more effective when they face financial shocks, as opposed to a productivity shock.
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Analysis of contagion between energy and CEE financial markets
Kosar, Mariia ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Geršl, Adam (referee)
This work analyzes the contagion effects between energy and CEE financial markets during the two crisis periods (global financial crisis 2008-2009 and energy market crisis 2014), using a sample of daily data from 2004 till 2015. We detect contagion by observing the degree and structure of two dummy variables for specified crisis periods included into the quantile regression models on the basis of a dependence measure called "coexceedances". Our results show that there are significant contagion effects present between the gasoil and CEE stock markets during the 2008-2009 period and mixed evidence of contagion between crude oil market and CEE stock markets. CEE stock markets do not appear to exhibit significant contagion effects with energy markets during the recent energy market crisis. These results substantially differ from those found in the developed European markets. In particular, our results indicate that energy markets and stock markets in developed Europe seem to display significant contagion effects during the 2014-2015 period. Keywords: Central and Eastern Europe, contagion, energy market, quantile regression
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Impact of sovereign debt crisis in Greece on its neighboring countries
Papoušek, Radan ; Geršl, Adam (advisor) ; Kuc, Matěj (referee)
In this thesis, I analyze contagious effects stemming from Greece to Bulgaria, Cyprus, Italy, and Turkey during the Greek sovereign debt crisis. Using the VAR framework, I estimate adjusted cross-market correlation coefficients, and then test them on con- tagion. My research is based on examination of 10-year sovereign bonds and stock market indices in time period spanning from December 2004 to August 2012. The thesis finds that contagious impacts arising from the Greek crisis were present in all the examined countries. I also find significant interdependence among some of the examined countries. The existence of transmission channels suggests that the crisis could spread easily from Greece.
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The Evolution of Optimum Currency Area Index: Post-crisis Perspective
Kadlecová, Pavlína ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Geršl, Adam (referee)
This paper estimates the determinants of exchange rate variability for 21 developed economies in 1980-1998. The results show that traditional criteria implied by the optimum currency area (OCA) theory, such as business cycle synchronisation, trade linkages and economy size, determine to a large extent bilateral exchange rate variability. Using the ordinary least squares estimation, we compute OCA indices for European economies vis-à-vis Germany and identify countries showing consistently large or little signs of convergence. We find that since 1998, most European developed economies have converged to Germany whether or not they are using the euro, suggesting that structural similarity is not driven solely by monetary integration. Our results from the model estimated by the generalized method of moments suggest that two additional criteria reflecting labour market flexibility and private credit growth are significant in explaining the exchange rate variability and lead to a ranking of countries different from the traditional approach. We find a positive relationship between the OCA indices and GDP decline during the economic crisis of 2008-09, which further supports the view that the OCA index is a useful indicator of the candidates' readiness to join the Euro Area. We apply the results to the...
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The Determinants of Inflation Differentials across Central and Eastern European Countries
Gurbulea, Mihaela ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Geršl, Adam (referee)
The thesis aims at identifying the reasons behind the heterogeneous inflation performance of countries across Central and Eastern Europe. The impact of a large number of variables is being assessed in a dynamic panel data model covering 20 countries over the period 2003-2013. The empirical results suggest that cross-country differences in inflation are attributed to the structure of the economy, to the capital deepening effects and openness. Along with the structural factors, cyclical positions also prove to be of particular importance in explaining inflation across the region, since during the last decade most of the Central and Eastern European countries have experienced fast GDP growth, a credit boom and increased domestic demand that in turn fueled inflation.
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Cross-border effects of sovereign rating changes on bond yields before and during the Eurozone crisis
Zachar, Martin ; Schneider, Ondřej (advisor) ; Geršl, Adam (referee)
This paper looks into the contagion dynamics of sovereign credit rating changes with regards to bond yields in the period before and during the sovereign debt crisis in Europe. Our sample included European Union member countries, as well as a Eurozone subsample and a subsample excluding highly indebted countries. Events and outlooks from all three major rating agencies were considered. Our findings for the pre-crisis period are consistent with existing research, indicating an increase in borrowing costs by approximately five basis points in the case of a one-notch negative event, and insignificant effects in the case of positive events. During the crisis period, we observed a reversal of this effect, associating negative ratings with lower spreads on the entire sample. However, the effect was no longer significant when highly indebted countries were excluded from the sample, indicating that this effect may be tied to overly negative expectations. Lastly, we investigated the persistence of results, with only full-sample crisis period data displaying persistent effects. JEL Classification F01, F34, F42 Keywords credit rating, sovereign debt, default, debt crisis, European debt, sustainability Author's e-mail martin1703@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail schneider.ondrej@gmail.com
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Linkage between Exchange Rate and Foreign Direct Investments: Empirical evidence from Developing Countries
Hnath, Martin ; Geršl, Adam (advisor) ; Benáček, Vladimír (referee)
In this thesis we provide an updated empirical evidence on the linkage between an exchange rate and foreign direct investments (FDI). On the sample of 40 developing countries receiving FDI flows from five developed OECD econo- mies, we analyse how the strength of exchange rates, exchange rate volatility and currency regime affect FDI. Applying the Hausman-Taylor instrumental variable approach over the analysed period from 1991 to 2010, we have not found unanimous support on the role of exchange rates in influencing FDI. In the thesis, we document that over the last two decades, bilateral exchange rate volatility decreased and this can be assigned to its less-likely influence on FDI. In addition, based on the results of the analysis, we cannot confirm the wealth effect hypothesis that supposes an increase of FDI after real depreciation of developing country's currency. We ascribe this outcome to the development of average real exchange rates of developing countries that exhibited considerable strenghtening during the analysed period. We also find that de facto bilateral fixing of the currencies might be beneficial for FDI flows. The reasoning might lie in the reduction of transaction costs that is linked to credible exchange rates.
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Foreign Direct Investment in Emerging Markets: The Case of Turkey
Huseynli, Orkhan ; Geršl, Adam (advisor) ; Zeynalov, Ayaz (referee)
This paper studies determinants of FDI in Turkey using panel data analyses. The results of the study show that political stability, education level, rule of law, and trade cost have significant impact on FDI inflow in Turkey while similarity in economy size of home and host country (Turkey) has not. The effect of the trade cost and rule of law was surprising but it gave a clue to new research area. It was concluded that next studies of FDI determinants in Turkey must be conducted at firms' level to better understand the behaviour of foreign direct investments in the country.
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