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Volatility and Skewness Spillover Effects: Multiresolution Analysis
Frýd, Lukáš ; Vácha, Lukáš (advisor) ; Baruník, Jozef (referee)
The thesis investigates volatility and skewness spillover effects among seven world stock indices and WTI oil under the assumption of the presence of heterogeneous investors. The data sample covers the period from January 1990 to July 2016. The questions addressed in the thesis are twofold: firstly, the dependency of the spillover effect for both the moments-volatility and skewness-on different investments horizons is tested. Further, it is mea- sured whether the inclusion of skewness into has an impact on the volatility spillovers. The decomposition to the different investment horizons is per- formed by the wavelet transformation. Conditional volatility and skewness were estimated by GAS model, which is capable to dynamize static parame- ters from Skewed t distribution. Empirical results suggest significant spillover effects from both volatil- ity and skewness. Another important result is that skewness has a non- significant impact on the volatility spillover effects. Further, it has been found that spillover effects for both the moments are time-scale dependent: the higher investment horizons are associated with higher spillover effects. Additionally, our results support the evidence of the significant impact of the financial crisis in 2008 on the structure of markets. From 2008, there are stronger volatility...
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Modeling insurance claims of vehicles with extended warranty
Škorňa, Šimon ; Zouhar, Jan (advisor) ; Frýd, Lukáš (referee)
The aim of this bachelor thesis is to introduce reader to possibilities of empirical analysis of insurance claims. Benefit of this thesis is description of effects that certain variables have on occurrence of insurance claims, while using wide range of suitable modelling techniques. Before the techniques are presented, reader is briefly introduced to issues of car insurance company. Insurance claims are modelled by most common techniques such as models with binary response variable and count models as well as survival analysis, which uses variable capturing number of days until claim occur. Results of above mentioned models are discussed and subsequently compared, which allows to demonstrate robustness of these results.
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The dynamics of the energy sector beta coefficient
Šimečková, Martina ; Frýd, Lukáš (advisor) ; Jindra, Marek (referee)
This bachelor thesis investigates the presence of asymmetric reactions in systemic risk and its development over time. The estimation is done utilising three DCC family models and the OLS model. The asymmetric reactions were found to be significant in both, the volatility of energy companies based portfolio returns and the correlation between this portfolio and a market portfolio. Due to the statistical significance of all resulting parameters of each model, we have also succeeded in confirming that energy sector's beta is time varying. By testing the estimation of each beta coefficient alone, we have come to the conclusion that a statistically significant difference arises only when utilising an asymmetric volatility model.
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Analysis of dynamics of beta coefficient in the CAPM model using models of asymmetric volatility and correlation
Staňková, Tereza ; Frýd, Lukáš (advisor) ; Jiránek, Petr (referee)
The aim of this thesis is to estimate the dynamic development of the beta coefficient for the pharmaceutical industry and agriculture to test the influence of asymmetry in volatility and correlation on the estimation of this coefficient. OLS rolling window, Dynamic Conditional Correlation by Engle (2002) and its asymmetric version by Cappiello, Engle and Sheppard (2006) were used to demonstrate the dynamic development of the beta coefficient. In the case of agriculture, the asymmetry in scattering and correlation had a statistically significant impact on the beta coefficient estimate. In the case of the pharmaceutical industry, the beta coefficients of these models differed only in shorter periods of high volatility. In addition, the ability to predict beta during crisis was better for these models than for the beta published by Damodaran.
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Modely dynamické podmíněné korelace a jejich aplikace při mitigaci rizika portfolia
Ševčík, Martin ; Frýd, Lukáš (advisor) ; Nevrla, Matěj (referee)
This bachelor thesis investigates asymmetry in returns of corn, gold and crude oil (both spot and futures) and hedging effectiveness of these commodities when employing DCC family models for hedge ratio estimation. The asymmetry in conditional variances was found to be significant only in case of crude oil spot and futures returns and asymmetry in conditional correlation of spot and futures returns was not shown to be significant in neither of the investigated commodities. With respect to the hedging performance, we conclude that differences in hedging performance measured by hedging effectiveness index are negligible and thus do not support superiority of DCC family models over OLS, which served as a benchmark. Historical Value at Risk, on the contrary, identified the DCC with asymmetry in conditional variance (despite asymmetry not being significant) to be appropriate for corn hedging, however not for the other two commodities, where the OLS based hedge ratio performed similarly or even better than the DCC family models. The main contribution of the thesis thus lays in empirical investigation of asymmetry in returns of selected commodities and testing hedging potential of DCC family based hedge ratio.
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Ekonometric analysis of housing units prices in Prague
Garančovský, René ; Formánek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Frýd, Lukáš (referee)
The aim of this thesis is to find indicators that have a significant impact on the price of housing units in Prague. It will also be a comparison with analyses already done. My analysis is based on a sample of housing units and their data from real estate market. It is based on econometric analysis. The work is divided into four chapters, of which the first and second are theoretical and third and fourth carries a practical point. The first chapter is devoted to the basic description of the characteristics of housing units and territorial connection. In the second chapter we describe used econometric techniques. Into third chapter we enter outputs, made by us in eviews. In the fourth and final chapter we describe, disassemble, compare and analyse individual results of the preceding chapter.
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