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Credit risk monitoring in the Czech banking sector : Early warning model
Mužíček, Pavel ; Dědek, Oldřich (advisor) ; Rippel, Milan (referee)
The aim of my thesis is in the first place to show how to deal with a credit risk, and which tools the Czech banking sector uses to minimize it (based on the adequate literature and own experience). In the second place, the aim is to find out the reliable logit model estimating the probability of default during the short period based on available data (in the time of economic crisis in the Czech environment). In the first part of this thesis I am describing the development of Non-performing loans before and during the current financial crisis together with the results of the CNB's stress tests. Next chapter describes the credit risk with the emphasis on the credit monitoring, including the most frequently used monitoring tools. Practical part turns us to the most important EWM model. The strictly confidential banking data (credit account turnovers, credit contract), together with data from the financial statements and CRU registry are the inputs to the Model. The Model should work as an early warning signal detection thanks to the estimate of probability of default (more specifically the watch loan classification or worse) during the next three months.
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Pricing Options Using Monte Carlo Simulation
Dutton, Ryan ; Dědek, Oldřich (advisor) ; Červinka, Michal (referee)
Monte Carlo simulation is a valuable tool in computational finance. It is widely used to evaluate portfolio management rules, to price derivatives, to simulate hedging strategies, and to estimate Value at Risk. The purpose of this thesis is to develop the mathematical foundation and an algorithmic structure to carry out Monte Carlo simulation to price a European call option, investigate Black-Scholes model to look into the parallel between Monte Carlo simulation and Black-Scholes model, provide a solution for Black-Scholes model using Lognormal distribution of a stock price rather than solving Black-Scholes original partial differential equation, and finally compare the results of Monte Carlo simulation with Black- Scholes closed-form formula. Author's contribution can be best described as developing the mathematical foundation and the algorithm for Monte Carlo simulation, comparing the simulation results with the Black-Scholes model, and investigating how path-dependent options can be implemented using simulation when closed-form formulas may not be available. JEL Classification C02, C6, G12, G17 Keywords Monte Carlo simulation, Option pricing, Black-Scholes model Author's e-mail ryandutton4@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail oldrich.dedek@fsv.cuni.cz
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SME Access to Finance and Monetary Policy of the ECB
Brázdová, Martina ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Dědek, Oldřich (referee)
The objective of this thesis is to provide new insights into determinants of firm access to finance, and the role of the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy. Not only do we describe and analyze the determinants of access to finance, but we focus on the theory of financial intermediation, as well. The key part analyses European Commission (EC)/ECB survey data for 16 euro area economies from 11 survey waves in the period from 2009 to 2014. We build our model using traditional firm-level variables such as firm size and age as well as a novel measure of the ECB's monetary policy stance - the shadow rate. We hypothesize that smaller and younger firms with decreased profitability over the past 6 months and increased leverage over the same period are more likely to report problems with access to finance. Our results are intuitively consistent with theoretical expectations and also show that the looser the monetary policy of the ECB is, the lower the composite financing gap indicator. Interestingly, we do not confirm the existence of risk taking channel of the monetary policy. Overall, we make use of the most recent survey data, extend the dataset, and use modified methodology for our estimation.
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Evaluation of effectiveness of the EU's regional policy
Luhan, Jiří ; Schneider, Ondřej (advisor) ; Dědek, Oldřich (referee)
Regional Policy of the European Union should lead to decrease deepening of regional disparities, which is present due to ongoing integration and enlargement of the EU. A lot of regional disparities is caused by so called agglomeration forces, which lead to concentration of economic activity in strong centers (agglomeration poles), and which are described by New Economic Geography. This thesis deals with the question if today's Regional Policy of the EU leads to reduce regional disparities. By analyzing regional data and existing empirical studies I point out some failures of this policy and recommend practical steps for the future. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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An analysis on US subprime mortgage crisis : expansion and the burst of bubble
Yazicioglu, Gorkem ; Dědek, Oldřich (advisor) ; Cahlík, Tomáš (referee)
This thesis provides an analysis on the expansion and the burst phases of the 2007 subprime mortgage bubble, in two interrelated sections. The first part - called "Expansion of the bubble"-, analyzes the speculative investor behaviour of the US Real Estate Crisis and exhibits that before the crisis the asset prices such as Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities and Standard and Poor's 500 indexes showed statistical features which are not common among financial time series. Common stylized facts such volatility clustering and autocorrelation of absolute returns were tested for the years 1997-2010, using daily data on the index values. The results indicate that during bubble periods several of the stylized facts disappeared since investors did not respond as normal to the volatility events and price changes. Hence, I have suggested that irrational exuberance of investors during 2007 subprime mortgage crisis and other bubble periods can be detected by testing these stylized facts. In the second part,- called "The burst of Bubble" -, I showed that common macroeconomic risk factors can explain, to a very large extent, all types of mortgage's credit risk and I concluded that individual mortgages are possessing significant default correlation, especially subprime mortgage classes. Finally this thesis ends with...
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Public budgeting : a study case of the Republic of Moldova
Sofianu, Nicoleta ; Dědek, Oldřich (advisor) ; Mejstřík, Michal (referee)
The paper provides a comprehensive and analytical insight of the budgetary process and the existing budget practices from the international experience perspective, including a thorough analysis of the medium-term framework and of the performance budgeting. It offers a detailed review of the budget mechanisms and techniques used in designing the budget system. It then provides an analytical review of the Moldovan current budget planning system. The main findings are: 1) Budgeting is not anymore a mechanical process; it reflects priority and objective policies and obligations a state assumes. 2) Budget procedures and methods used are result-oriented and based on performance indicators. 3) Modern budgetary procedures are used in all developed countries and are being implemented in developing countries. OECD, IMF and the WB recommend the approaches. 4) Moldova makes efforts to harmonize with international standards. While MTEF is already functional, the performance budgeting still does not cover all budget sectors and it is still not entirely used in the decision making process regarding the budget planning. The research is based on a large volume of existing relevant international literature, as well as on Moldovan approved normative and legislative acts, reports and assessments done mostly by international...
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Bank and Insurance Company
Kroutil, Tomáš ; Hrdý, Martin (advisor) ; Dědek, Oldřich (referee)
The aim of this paper is to outline the risks that banks and insurance companies are exposed to, as the institutions that we frequently come to contact, to compare different risk profiles of these two institutions with respect to their dissimilar business nature and unequal regulation. Main attention is given to three fundamental phases of the risk management process: identification, quantification and control of risks. We also focus on the legislative and regulatory framework of banking and insurance on the domestic, European as well as international level including expected future development. This paper pursues to be as up to date as possible, works with current versions of law, ordinances and regulatory concepts such as New Basel Capital Accord or Solvency II. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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Gold in Central Bank Reserves and Price Stability
Melnychuk, Olena ; Havránek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Dědek, Oldřich (referee)
There is a traditional view that central banks should hold enough gold in their reserves to be considered financially secure and keep low inflation. However, after the fall of the Bretton-Woods system, many central banks have been decreasing its gold reserves by converting gold into other assets and still they do not experience high inflation. This thesis aims to answer the question if gold reserves of central banks indeed positively affect price stability. We use the panel data for 110 countries for the period from 2000 to 2016. We find that there is a significant negative effect of central banks' gold reserves on inflation but only if we control the proxy variables for the financial strength of central banks. Furthermore, the significance holds only for the inflation-targeting countries, there are no significant effects for the whole data sample. JEL Classification: E31, E52, E58, F41, G11, G21 Keywords: Gold reserves, Central Banks, Inflation rate, Price Stability Author's e-mail: 73099909@fsv.cuni.cz Supervisor's e-mail: tomas.havranek@fsv.cuni.cz
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Credit derivates and theis utilization in banks in the CR
Kysilko, Michal ; Dědek, Oldřich (advisor) ; Jakubík, Petr (referee)
The emergence of credit derivatives brought a crucial change to hedging and diversifying credit risk. Since then, credit derivatives have become a major investment tool as well. This paper investigates the credit derivatives supply of banks in the Czech republic. Considering the costingness of credit derivative products and its targeting to large institutional investors, it is quite obvious that these products are traded in a small volume in the CR. Only three banks offer credit derivatives here and they just re-sell products from their foreign partners. Generally, these products are stuctured credit products (i.e. CLNs and CDOs) that can be tailored to specific investors' needs. A credit default swap market does not exist in the CR at all. The question of future development here is the introduction of credit derivative products to retail banking which is of a great potential in the CR. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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