|
|
How Smart will be Europe 2020? A Panel Data Analysis.
Marková, Veronika ; Cahlík, Tomáš (advisor) ; Moravcová, Michala (referee)
This thesis analyses the targets for education under Europe 2020 strategy - early leavers from education and tertiary education attainment. The main objective is to predict the future development for these indicators up to 2020 and answer the question whether these targets will be fulfilled. From the empirical perspective, it applies econometric analysis of panel data based on human capital theory, that relates the education level of an individual with the parental education and the labour market conditions.
|
|
|
Pros and Cons of Minimum Wage
Krupa, Mikuláš ; Cahlík, Tomáš (advisor) ; Svačina, David (referee)
1 Abstract This thesis examines the relationship between the minimum wages and the job market on the case of 17 EU member countries. We found that minimum wages are indeed generally contributing to lower employment rates among young workers. Particularly, it is the teenagers that are being affected most significantly by the increases in the minimum wage. It is in line with the expectations that if minimum wages have impact on the labour market, then this influence is most visible on the groups that are more frequently earning minimum wages. Employment rate is a better indicator of minimum wage effects on the labour market as the effect on the unemployment rate is much less visible due to various mechanisms that people use to adjust to the new situation. Keywords: minimum wage, employment, labour market, jobs automation, income distribution
|
|
|
The Impact of Oil Prices in Norway on Macroeconomic Indicators
Bogren, Peter ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Cahlík, Tomáš (referee)
This thesis analyzes the impact of oil price shocks on the selected macroeconomic variables in Norway for the period of 1990 till 2016. Lag-length test and structural vector autoregressive models are also applied to determine the oil price shocks effect on macroeconomic indicators. We are incorporating 1990 - 2016-time horizon to show the before-crisis, during and after the crisis oil price behavior. We will show that Norwegian oil prices have a strong and significant impact on exchange rate and export per capita. In the context of significant impact, we mean the oil prices will be dependent on these macroeconomic variables. We assume to have the correlation strong. We will show that oil price increase has opposite effect on export per capita and negative impact (decrease) on industrial production index. Last hypothesis states that oil price increase cause interest rate to rise and exchange rate to appreciate.
|
|
| |
|
| |
|
|
Analýza indexů akciových trhů a režimů na komoditních trzích
Kuchina, Elena ; Cahlík, Tomáš (advisor) ; Máša, Petr (referee) ; Lukáčik, Martin (referee)
The thesis focuses on the identification of the typical scenarios of the mutual relations among the stock markets considering different regimes on the commodity markets. For the identified scenarios the investment recommendations have been suggested. Considering different regimes the commodity markets go through and the mutual linkage among the stock markets during different situations on the commodity markets, six scenarios of the stock markets' mutual relations have been analyzed. It was shown that during most unstable period, when highly volatile regime prevails simultaneously on the energy, precious metals and non-energy commodity markets, the whole economy becomes to be more tied: the stock market indices demonstrate stronger interdependence, and as a consequence the benefits of diversification begin to fail. During the simultaneous presence of low volatility on all three analyzed commodity markets the agreement between occurrences of highly volatile state of most stock markets, besides the indices within the European region (DAX, CAC 40, IBEX 35), is rather weak. Similarly the correlation within regions and with other regions is weaker comparing with other situations on the commodity markets, so the standard investment strategy can be kept. It was also shown that the interdependence among the stock markets during the period of high volatility on the energy market differs depending on the source underlying the oil price shocks causing higher volatility. The regimes prevailing on the commodity and stock markets during different time periods have been detected by applying Hidden Markov Model methodology. To examine the similarity between the stock market indices in terms of highly volatile regimes' occurrences, Jaccard's similarity coefficient is employed. The correlation among the stock markets was computed by Spearman correlation coefficient. The final part of research is devoted to the model-based approach used to analyze the dependence of the movement direction of SSEC index on other stock market indices between two trading days during different situations on the commodity markets. The dependency analysis was performed by applying Stochastic Gradient Boosting methodology.
|
|
|
The Role of Income Tax Progressivity in GDP Smoothening: Empirical Analysis
Žofák, Pavel ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor) ; Cahlík, Tomáš (referee)
This thesis studies the relationship of income tax progressivity and output volatility. Using our dataset of 31 OECD countries and Bayesian model averaging (BMA) approach to address the model uncertainty issue, we find positive evidence that higher income tax progressivity leads to lower output volatility. This effect is robust to different prior specifications in BMA and to different tax progressivity measures, including our newly constructed measure which is based on the slope of the average tax curve. We also find a strong effect of tax progressivity on the consumption volatility and the volatility of hours worked which we see as the main channels for the reducing effect of tax progressivity on output volatility.
|
|
|
Selected Aspects of Negative Interest Rates
Repko, Šimon ; Cahlík, Tomáš (advisor) ; Mareš, Jan (referee)
Developed economies have been severely hurt over the last decade. Low inflation and unbalanced growth forced authorities to implement unconventional measures like negative interest rates. The unbalanced environment in financial markets is also visible on the commodity market. The prices of commodities have already experienced second contraction over the last decade. However, according to Frankel (2012) the changes in prices of commodities are heavily determined by real interest rates. This thesis summarizes implications resulting from negative nominal interest rates and then takes a closer look on the connections between changes in interest rates and the movements in commodity market. We use vector error correction model to investigate impact of nominal macroeconomic factors on the set of 16 commodities of different types (metal, energy and industrial commodities). As expected, our findings confirmed that the price changes in the commodity market are in the long run significantly linked with inflation as well as with nominal interest rates. The analysis also supports the claims of considerable correlation among prices themselves but provides no evidence of negative interest rate policy impact on the commodity market.
|
|
|
The economic development and international trade of North Korea using the factor analysis method
Kim, Ha Eun ; Chytilová, Julie (advisor) ; Cahlík, Tomáš (referee)
In this paper, after reviewing the characteristics of North Korean statistics, I examined how North Korea's trade affects its growth using empirical analyses. There have been many studies that have shown trade has affected economic growth, but there have been few empirical studies on North Korea's case. Cointegration test, regression analysis, and factor analysis were used. The empirical results suggest that even considering economic fluctuations, North Korea's trade has not shown a significant impact on growth. Keywords North Korea, Growth, Trade, Cointegration test, Factor analysis
|
|
|
Analysis of the impact of possible changes in the parameters of the Czech pension system on its balance
Maivald, Matěj ; Cahlík, Tomáš (advisor) ; Ryska, Pavel (referee)
Pension system in the Czech Republic still heavily relies on a model based on current disbursement method (PAYG), which is largely based on intergenerati- onal solidarity. With expected demographic changes, however, the amount of those who contribute will decrease and the oncoming retirement of populous generations of 70s together with prolonging life expectancy on the other hand will cause expenditure to increase. This thesis takes advantage of two different demographic projections and incorporates the latest macroeconomic data and legislative changes to capture the possible future scenarios. The results of this part suggest that the current system is not sustainable without intense external financing. Further it explores the impact of potential changes in various parameters of the pension system on the final account balance of pension insurance and tries to find their ideal setting that would allow for a balanced budget. Changes that would be required to implement in order to attain this objective are not insignificant and could be negatively reflected in the overall development of the Czech economy. It is therefore inevitable to start a discussion about more comprehensive possible reforms of the Czech pension system. JEL Classification E17, J11, H55 Keywords pension system, pay as you go system,...
|
guest ::
RSS feed.