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Models of Analysis and Forecasting of the insolvency of Czech companies
Kuchina, Elena ; Hušek, Roman (advisor) ; Řičař, Michal (referee)
Different scenarios of the financial situation can take place before the company's bankruptcy. There may be long-term trends in the deteriorating financial situation that indicate the impending corporate bankruptcy, or the bankruptcy may occur unexpectedly, even though the company was ranked among prosperous business units. If the economic situation of the company followed the second scenario, when insolvency was quite predictable, static model, i.e. the model which does not take into account the dynamics of changes in the financial indicators, is a good option to capture the probability of bankruptcy. However, the situation becomes different when the financial indicators fail to show a positive trend throughout some years before the insolvency. In this case, the predictive accuracy of the static model could be increased by a dynamic model by taking into account the fact that the development of the financial indicators in the past periods may affect the company's financial health for the period under consideration.
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Vývoj poptávky po vybraných komoditách na základě sekundárních dat
Řičař, Michal ; Soukup, Jindřich (advisor) ; Nováček, Jan (referee)
Poptávka, jakožto determinující faktor vyráběných statků z dlouhodobého hlediska, je natolik důležitý činitel dění v ekonomickém světě, že je potřebné důkladné zkoumání všech příčin a souvislostí, které ji mohou ovlivňovat. Pokud se podaří eliminovat jednotlivé, dříve zvažované, prvky, pak lze postupně získat takové ukazatele, které jednoznačně na poptávku působí. Sekundární data poslouží k náležitému rozlišení a následné dedukce pomohou k osvětlení nejužších souvislostí. Je zřejmé, že k takovýmto závěrům je třeba relevantních softwarových nástrojů, bez kterých by v dnešní době nebylo možno dostatečně adekvátně reagovat na turbulentní prostředí.
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Econometric Analysis of Monetary and Fiscally Policy of the Czech Republic with Impacts to Business Area
Řičař, Michal ; Hušek, Roman (advisor) ; Kislingerová, Eva (referee)
Monetary and fiscally policy together form the main pillar of state policy, which allows responsible institutions to stimulate or damp the development of national economy. Crucial role of these operations should be research of impacts on the sectors of industry, the business entities, respectively. We can expect that stimulation, e.g. in the form of increased government spending or lower interest rate of the central bank, will have different responses across a range of branches. If mathematical model of alternative historical development of the economy is composed with simulations for selected industries, we can analyze how each branch is affected. If significant differences in response of macroeconomic stimulations are found, it is necessary to proceed to an analytical examination of the causal factors that could stand in the background probably. It appears appropriate to apply financial analysis and on its basis it is possible to evaluate the structure of assets, financing, attainment of profits and other factors, whose characteristics is a strong explanatory power of the composition and function of the analyzed branch in the economy as a whole.
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