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Log-optimal investment
Král, Stanislav ; Dostál, Petr (advisor) ; Večeř, Jan (referee)
1. Abstrakt Suppose we have a capital, which we will redistribute into investment op- portunities. The financial valuation of these investments will be a sequence of independent, identically distributed random vectors that acquire finite amount of values. We will have full knowledge of the entire history of these valuations before each investment. It turns out that if our strategy is to always maximizes the mean value of the logarithm of the investment value, denoted by Λ∗ , then this strategy is asymptotically the best one possible. If strategy Λ is not asymptotically close to Λ∗ and if x goes to infinity, then the mean of the time we earn atleast x using Λ∗ is infinitely smaller than the time if we used Λ. We also earn infinitely times more money using the strategy Λ∗ . 1
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Order book dynamics
Peržina, Vít ; Swart, Jan (advisor) ; Večeř, Jan (referee)
Main goal of this thesis is improvement of an order book model so that it behaved more realistically, based on a model developed by J. Plačková in her diploma thesis in 2011. We consider this simple model for evolution of order book in which limit orders of unit size arrive according to independent Poisson processes. Frequency of buy limit orders below resp. sell limit orders above a given price level is described by demand and supply functions. Buy (resp. sell) limit orders that arrive with price above (resp. below) the current ask (resp. bid) price are converted into market orders and cancellation of orders is not allowed. We extend this model by introducing market makers who place at the same time one buy and one sell limit order with current bid and ask prices. We show how introducing market makers reduces the spread that in the original model was unrealistically large and also show a method of calculating the precise rate of market makers needed to reduce the spread to zero. 1
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Calculation of capital requirements of market risk for options on stock's basket
Lendacký, Peter ; Myška, Petr (advisor) ; Večeř, Jan (referee)
The goal of the paper is to compare different approach in calculation of capital requirement of market risk for options on stock's basket and describe their impact on selected instrument. The first part of the paper describes possible approaches for the capital requirement calculation, namely Standardized approach and Internal model approach, and the theoretical base for option pricing. An instrument with the embedded option on equities was chosen to show the impact. Although the instrument is valued using Monte Carlo simulation, one chapter is devoted to Black-Scholes model as the base model for option pricing. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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Stochastic Models in Financial Mathematics
Waczulík, Oliver ; Hurt, Jan (advisor) ; Večeř, Jan (referee)
Title: Stochastic Models in Financial Mathematics Author: Bc. Oliver Waczulík Department: Department of Probability and Mathematical Statistics Supervisor: doc. RNDr. Jan Hurt, CSc., Department of Probability and Mathe- matical Statistics Abstract: This thesis looks into the problems of ordinary stochastic models used in financial mathematics, which are often influenced by unrealistic assumptions of Brownian motion. The thesis deals with and suggests more sophisticated alternatives to Brownian motion models. By applying the fractional Brownian motion we derive a modification of the Black-Scholes pricing formula for a mixed fractional Bro- wnian motion. We use Lévy processes to introduce subordinated stable process of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type serving for modeling interest rates. We present the calibration procedures for these models along with a simulation study for estima- tion of Hurst parameter. To illustrate the practical use of the models introduced in the paper we have used real financial data and custom procedures program- med in the system Wolfram Mathematica. We have achieved almost 90% decline in the value of Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistics by the application of subordinated stable process of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type for the historical values of the monthly PRIBOR (Prague Interbank Offered Rate) rates in...
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Analysis and prediction of league games results
Šimsa, Filip ; Hanzák, Tomáš (advisor) ; Večeř, Jan (referee)
The thesis is devoted to an analysis of ice hockey matches results in the highest Czech league competition in seasons 1999/2000 to 2014/2015 and to prediction of the following matches. We describe and apply Kalman filter theory where forms of teams represent an unobservable state vector and results of matches serve as measurements. Goal differences are identified as a suitable transformation of a match result. They are used as a dependent variable in a linear regression to find significant predictors. For a prediction of a match result we construct an ordinal model with those predictors. By using generalized Gini coefficient, we compare a diversifica- tion power of this model with betting odds, which are offered by betting companies. At the end, we combine knowledge of odds before a match with other predictors to make a prediction model. This model is used to identify profitable bets. 1
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Robust methods in portfolio theory
Petrušová, Lucia ; Branda, Martin (advisor) ; Večeř, Jan (referee)
01 Abstract: This thesis is concerned with the robust methods in portfolio theory. Different risk measures used in portfolio management are introduced and the corresponding robust portfolio optimization problems are formulated. The analytical solutions of the robust portfolio optimization problem with the lower partial moments (LPM), value-at-risk (VaR) or conditional value-at-risk (CVaR), as a risk measure, are presented. The application of the worst-case conditional value-at-risk (WCVaR) to robust portfolio management is proposed. This thesis considers WCVaR in the situation where only partial information on the underlying probability distribution is available. The minimization of WCVaR under mixture distribution uncertainty, box uncertainty, and ellipsoidal uncertainty are investigated. Several numerical examples based on real market data are presented to illustrate the proposed approaches and advantage of the robust formulation over the corresponding nominal approach.
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Investment strategies
Mašát, Filip ; Hurt, Jan (advisor) ; Večeř, Jan (referee)
The goal of the thesis is to explain the portfolio diversification with graph theory. It introduces needed terminology from financial mathematics and from graph theory. The described methods is used on real data and are compared with classic method where risk is measured by the standard deviation and mean absolute deviation and used criteria are based on the Markowitz approach and Sharpe ratio. The software Mathematica is used for computation and graph rendering. 1
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Random walks on networks, hitting times and cover times
Havránek, Jiří ; Prokešová, Michaela (advisor) ; Večeř, Jan (referee)
This thesis studies the cover time of random walks on finite connected graphs. Work contains the derivation of upper and lower estimates of cover time which allows us to focus on hitting time instead of cover time. We show that in some cases the problem of searching for the hitting time can be further simplified with the usage of the electrical networks, which can provide a different model for considered random walks and can help finding the hitting time through the effective resistance between some vertices. This procedure is used to find the upper and lower bounds for specific families of structures, which ilustrates that in some cases the bounds are asymptotically very tight and in other cases they give poor results. 1
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Applications of Bayesian Model Selection
Macek, Tomáš ; Večeř, Jan (advisor) ; Komárek, Arnošt (referee)
The Thesis deals with Bayesian model selection. In the theoretical part, readers will get to know with the priciple of Bayesian approach and the Thesis also states Bayes theorem, which has a key role in the given problematics. Next, it elucidates possibilities of choosing prior distribution and introduces Bayesian regression model, especially Zellner's method, which can be used to choose the most suitable model. In the practical part, this method is then implemented using R on real data from English Premier League football matches. From several statistics considered, the method will select the most suitable model, which means that it will select those statistics which are the most important for the match outcome. 1
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Multivariate random walk model for multiple players games
Pavlech, Ján ; Hlubinka, Daniel (advisor) ; Večeř, Jan (referee)
The goal of this bachelor's thesis is to analyse a game of three players, as a multiva- riate random walk. Specifically, its probability distribution from a purely combinatoric approach, but also through generating functions and the inverse formula. We will exa- mine in detail the basic properties in a few simpler models: regular rotation of players who are equally skilled, regular rotation of players who are not equally skilled, and irregular rotation of players who are not equally skilled. We will also focus on the fairness of the game, return to its origin, and distribution of maximum achieved during the game. In the last chapter, we will inspect more closely some basic simulations of progress of the game. 1
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