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Use of the Agrorisk.cz portal – an early warning system against the negative effects of weather on agriculture
Žalud, Zdeněk ; Svobodová, Eva ; Klem, Karel ; Hlavinka, Petr ; Semerádová, Daniela ; Zahradníček, Pavel ; Štěpánek, Petr ; Bláhová, Monika ; Kudláčková, Lucie ; Balek, Jan
The early warning system against negative weather effects offers a daily updated description of abiotic and selected biotic risks threatening field production at the cadastral level. It includes their 9-day forecast. The methodology is primarily intended for agronomists,plant doctors and agricultural managers, as well as scientists, agricultural consultants and representatives of public administration.
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Risk assessment and prediction of natural fires in the immediate vicinity\nsurface sources of drinking water.
Trnka, Miroslav ; Kudláčková, Lucie ; Čermák, P. ; Balek, Jan ; Novotný, Jan ; Homolová, Lucie ; Semerádová, Daniela ; Brovkina, Olga ; Štěpánek, Petr ; Zahradníček, Pavel ; Skalák, Petr ; Bláhová, Monika ; Benáček, Patrik ; Fischer, Milan ; Sedlák, Pavel ; Janouš, Dalibor ; Žalud, Zdeněk ; Marek, Michal V. ; Možný, M. ; Hájková, L. ; Chuchma, F. ; Knozová, G. ; Beranová, J. ; Zatloukal, V. ; Albert, J. ; Mašková, R. ; Cienciala, E. ; Vizina, A. ; Nesládková, M. ; Melišová, E. ; Hanel, M.
The methodology formulates a procedure for assessing the risks of the occurrence and spread of natural fires in the immediate vicinity of surface sources of drinking water. The methodology\nproposes methods for estimating the consequences of natural fires on surface water quality, forecasting the change in the risk of fires due to climate change and the procedure for determining the risk of secondary pollution of reservoirs due to changes in run off after a natural fire. On this basis, the methodology proposes and diversifies preventíve and operational measures.The measures were designed in connection to modeling results for the Hadce pilot síte near the Švihov reservoir and the experience with the adverse effects of extensive deforestation on the water quality in the Vranov and Vír reservoirs.
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System of natural fire risk indicators (verification of various risk assessment procedures occurrence of natural fires) including instructions for the use of the integrated forecast system
Trnka, Miroslav ; Čermák, Petr ; Kudláčková, Lucie ; Balek, Jan ; Semerádová, Daniela ; Brovkina, Olga ; Zemek, František ; Štěpánek, Petr ; Zahradníček, Pavel ; Skalák, Petr ; Bláhová, Monika ; Jurečka, František ; Janouš, Dalibor ; Žalud, Zdeněk ; Marek, Michal V. ; Cienciala, Emil ; Beranová, J. ; Zatloukal, V. ; Albert, J. ; Tumajer, J. ; Možný, M. ; Hájková, L. ; Chuchma, F.
The presented methodology represents an improvement of the currently used system of wildfire monitoring and forecast. Based on extensive testing, it defines two fire weather indices. The method shows how the combination of both indices can lead to robust fire risk estimates. Both indices were uset to generate a forecast of fire weather, but also to quantify th erelationship between the frequency of favorable conditions for the occurrence of natural fires and their observed numbers, in several time steps (from 1 day to the entire season) The methodology has been implemented within the www. firerisk.cz portal, where it serves as a tool for operational fire risk forecasting. The text of the methodology therefore contains instructions for using the menthodology therefore contains instructions for using the firerick.cz portal. Great attention is paid in the methodology to the aspect of climate change and estimating the impact of this phenomenon on the frequency of wildfires in the Czech republic.
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Recommended adaptation and mitigation measures in risk areas of natural occurrence fires in the light of the changing climate
Trnka, Miroslav ; Čermák, Petr ; Kudláčková, Lucie ; Balek, Jan ; Semerádová, Daniela ; Brovkina, Olga ; Zemek, František ; Štěpánek, Petr ; Zahradníček, Pavel ; Bláhová, Monika ; Cienciala, Emil ; Beranová, J. ; Zatloukal, V. ; Albert, J. ; Tumajer, J. ; Možný, M. ; Hájková, L. ; Chuchma, F.
The methodology formulates graded adaptation and mitigation measures to mitigate fire risk and spread fire in the countryside (forest and agricultural land). To this end, a variant assessment procedure is presented fire risk according to the user's data capabilities. The algorithmization of fire risk in forests is based on forest typology to assess habitats, and adds forest vegetation characteristics. On agricultural Soil agronomic factors include crop type, cover cover, habitat and water characteristics regime. For both territorial categories, the expected impacts of climate change on fire risk are given habitat in the medium term (by 2050). Methodology in conclusion on a case study demonstrates the possibilities of using the model tool FlamMap for the analysis of fire characteristics.
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Regional yield forecasting for improved decision making in the plant production
Trnka, Miroslav ; Hlavinka, Petr ; Kudláčková, Lucie ; Balek, Jan ; Meitner, Jan ; Možný, Martin ; Štěpánek, Petr ; Bartošová, Lenka ; Semerádová, Daniela ; Bláhová, Monika ; Lukas, Vojtěch ; Žalud, Zdeněk
The methodology describes how to predict yields of key crops, and at the same time addresses reliability of the predictions and how these can be used. The ability to predict yield levels more than 2 months prior the harvest on the level of regions (NUTS3¨) and districts (LAU1) brings also new opportunities to mitigate impacts of adverse conditions. The methodology shows that the yield forecasts and yield anomalies in particular are consistent and usable in practices. In this methodology, the results of 2018 yield forecasts are presented as an example. The yield forecasting system for the Czech Republic is fully functional and is and will be available through www.vynosy-plodin.cz.
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Evaluating drought risk for permanent grasslands under present and future climate conditions
Trnka, Miroslav ; Schaumberger, A. ; Formayer, H. ; Eitzinger, Josef ; Hlavinka, Petr ; Semerádová, Daniela ; Dubrovský, Martin ; Možný, M. ; Thaler, S. ; Žalud, Zdeněk
Over the past years, the changing climate has affected parts of Czech Republic and Austria by drought spells of the intensity and extend that was unprecedented in previous decades. These events had a significant impact on agricultural areas, especially on the grasslands. The idea behind the GIS monitoring relies on hypothesis that the effect of weather and climate conditions on the grassland production can be estimated by models that describe certain natural processes in a simplified manner and in spatialized form.
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System for monitoring and forecast of impacts of agricultural drought
Trnka, Miroslav ; Štěpánek, Petr ; Chuchma, F. ; Možný, M. ; Bartošová, Lenka ; Hlavinka, Petr ; Balek, Jan ; Zahradníček, Pavel ; Skalák, Petr ; Farda, Aleš ; Semerádová, Daniela ; Meitner, Jan ; Bláhová, M. ; Fiala, R. ; Žalud, Zdeněk
The methodology describes how to predict soil moisture and drought intensity, and at the same time addresses reliability of the predictions and how these can be used. The ability to predict soil moisture values over a period of up to 9 days is presented through using ensemble of models for numerical weather forecasts. This method brings also new opportunities to mitigate impacts during drought events by farmers using such forecasting tools. With regard to the relatively high predictability of soil moisture and drought intensity, the methodology introduces the basic procedures and provides necessary information for the users. In this methodology, the results of 2017 drought event are presented as an example. The drought forecasting system for the Czech Republic is fully functional and is and will be available through www.intersucho.cz.
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Application of multispectral remote sensing indices for sensing indices for estimating crop yields at field level
Jurečka, František ; Lukas, Vojtěch ; Hlavinka, Petr ; Semerádová, Daniela ; Fischer, Milan ; Žalud, Zdeněk ; Trnka, Miroslav
Remote sensing can be used for yield estimation prior to harvest and can replace or complement classical\nways of estimating crop yields. This study was undertaken in Polkovice, located in the Czech Republic’s\nHaná region. For 2015 and 2016, two data sets of satellite imagery were used: the Moderate Resolution\nImaging Spectroradiometer and the Landsat 8. Vegetation indices from satellites were compared with crop\nyields at the level of land blocks. Winter wheat and spring barley yield data, representing crops planted\nover the analysed period, were used for the comparison. The results of the index–yield comparison showed\nthat vegetation indices from remote sensing data provide reliable information for yield estimation prior to\nharvest. Indices are also able to evaluate the spatial variability of a crop within the field. The results showed\nthat remote sensing data need to have detailed spatial resolution in order to provide reasonable information\nabout yield at such a detailed level.
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Monitoring of water use, druought and yield impacts of winter wheat using imaginery from satellites
Jurečka, František ; Anderson, M. ; Hlavinka, Petr ; Semerádová, Daniela ; Trnka, Miroslav ; Hain, C. ; Gao, F. ; Yang, Y. ; Žalud, Zdeněk
Remote sensing can be very useful tool for drought monitoring, providing valuable information about yield-limiting moisture conditions and crop response under current climate conditions. In this study the Atmosphere-land Exchange Inverse (ALEXI) model was used. The ALEXI model uses the morning surface temperature (LST) rise and provides information on the surface moisture status. In this paper correlations between yields and satellite indicators of crop water use or evapotranspiration (ET) were studied for the period 2002-2014. Correlations were studied for winter wheat at district scale in Vysocina, Jihomoravsky and Olomoucky regions since winter wheat is one of the traditional and most important crops grown in these regions. The Evaporative Stress Index (ESI) was used for these correlations as an ET-based index. Time series of Pearson correlation coefficient (r) computed between ESI and winter wheat yields at district scale were analysed. Strongest correlations are associated with districts within the Southern Moravian lowlands in Jihomoravsky and Olomoucky region, where frequency of occurrence of severe drought was highest over the period of record. Severe drought resulted in significant yield impacts, particularly in years 2003 and 2012. Correlations tend to be lower over the highlands districts of Vysocina and surroundings. In these districts, yields are more temperature than moisture limited and were more stable over the period of record.
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Agroclimatic analysis of perspective changes of starting production conditions for agricultural entities and related impacts to land valuation system
Trnka, Miroslav ; Hlavinka, Petr ; Balek, Jan ; Semerádová, Daniela ; Dubrovský, Martin ; Štěpánek, Petr ; Žalud, Zdeněk
The aim of this report is to evaluate the analyses prepared within the contractual research collaboration implemented within the project number of the EEA-CZ02 1-039-2015-OV-called "Complex planning, monitoring, information and educational tools to adapt the territory to the impacts of climate change with major focus on agricultural and forest landscape management" funded by the EEA Fund 2009 - 2014 program CZ02 - Biodiversity and ecosystem services /. The study focuses on the South Moravian Region (SMR) and follows a report assessing the impact of expected climatic conditions prepared for the above-mentioned project in October 2016. Like the previous study, this part is processed based on the 5 selected global circulation models (GCMs) and for two emission scenarios and the period 2021-2040. Since a detailed description of the scenarios includes a previous report confines itself in this text only on the most important outputs relevant to SMR.
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