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Weather influence on speculation on stock markets
Horáček, Jan ; Pánková, Václava (advisor) ; Křepelová, Marika (referee)
Topic of this master thesis is to examine whether weather related mood changes are in correlation with price of stocks. Thesis focuses on middle Europe stock market indexes PX, SAX, ATX and DAX. Research is based on relationship between daily cloud cover and development of the indexes form 1995 to 2012. It also focuses on comparison of several different models, especially models of seemingly unrelated regressions. It shows that indexes PX and ATX are significantly negatively correlated with local cloud cover. Use of seemingly unrelated regressions offers slightly better results. The relation between cloud cover and stock indexes is not strong enough to be used for weather based speculations
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Mundell-Fleming model. Application to the Czech economy.
Bouda, Milan ; Pánková, Václava (advisor) ; Křepelová, Marika (referee)
Interpretation of Mundell-Fleming (M-F) model is very similar to IS -- LM model. The main difference is that M-F model is based on an assumption of small open economy. This openness is making this model more realistic then IS -- LM model. These assumptions are suitable for Czech economy. In this thesis, model is estimated and interpreted. The most important is an application to Czech economy concerning the period 2002 - 2010. There are ex post and ex ante predictions based on the estimated reduced form of the model. The ex post forecast is used for the purpose of evaluating whether the model is suitable for the prediction. After finding relevant suitability, prediction of endogenous variables is performed in the following four seasons.
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Analysis of the effectiveness of the EU economies
Charvátová, Petra ; Pánková, Václava (advisor) ; Křepelová, Marika (referee)
Analysis of technical efficiency can be carried out by several possible approaches, such as a deterministic parametric approach, deterministic non-parametric approach (data envelopment analysis) and stochastic parametric approach. The content of this work is an analysis using stochastic parametric approach and deals with the efficiency computed by the help of production functions. The best known and most commonly used aggregate production function is a Cobb-Douglas production function, which is a modification of the static formulation of a relationship between variables and factors of production. The analysis of efficiency can be explained by using of different factors. In this work, the effectiveness is analyzed by the export value of controlled entities and dependent on GDP and public investment. Technical efficiency is studied comparing twenty-seven European Union economies. The analysis is applied to the universal values of the variables and the values per capita.
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Demand functions as an econometric model
Horáček, Jan ; Pánková, Václava (advisor) ; Křepelová, Marika (referee)
Topic of this bachelor thesis explores influence of monetary policy and GDP on aggregate demand and differences between USA, Germany and Czech Republic. It uses annual and quarterly data since 1995 and for USA since 1985. The work proves influence of inflation and interest rates on this demand. There is significantly lower influence on Germany and Czech Republic then on USA because these European central banks have more strict monetary policy then FED. Second explored aspect is influence of GDP. It was proved that GDP influences aggregate demand in each country differently. It is partly due to transformation of Czech Republic and East Germany from socialistic system to free market economy and partly due to size and international economic integration.
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An Interrelationship Between Stock Indices
Křepelová, Marika ; Pánková, Václava (advisor) ; Ráčková, Adéla (referee)
This work analyzes an interrelationship between stock indices S&P 500, FTSE 100, DAX, HSI, Nikkei, BSI and PX in a time period from September 2004 till March 2010. Such an interrelationship has already been examined and a dominating position of American indices has been found. This influence was stronger during a financial crisis. Because the examined time period covers both financial crisis and the period before, the work studies their interrelationship in the whole period and at the end in the time period before financial crisis. The influence of one stock index on the other can be cause by several factors: (i) dominance of influencing stock index, (ii) efficient market and (iii) financial crisis. As the reaction of stock index is evoked from new information, the intention of this work is to take into account nonsychronous trading of stocks exchanges. Therefore I explored those exchange stocks closing earlier than the others start in two ways by respecting the time lag and by non-respecting the time lag. The interrelationship between the indices was modeled with help of VAR models and proved by Granger causality test.
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