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The Main Determinants of European Trade Integration
Spivacenco, Carolina ; Vacek, Pavel (advisor) ; Dingová, Vilma (referee)
The importance of international trade cannot be neglected as it represents an important channel of wealth creation in the actual globalised world. Thus, the present writer aims to identify how the commercial flows have changed after the adoption of Euro and once the financial crisis has burst. Furthermore the main factors that influence trade are researched by using the gravitational econometric model and employing panel data for 14 EU member countries. The results show that the intensity of commercial exchanges are highly influenced by the level of development (GDP) of the country and the amount of FDI that are attracted, while the use of a common currency appears to be not too significant. At the same time, indicators are more sensible during the crisis period than the stable one, hence even small changes in independent variables can lead to higher decrease in trade. Key words: European trade, liberalization, competitiveness, financial crisis, contagion, Euro, gravitational model.
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Assessing the Fiscal Sustainability of the Czech Republic
Ambriško, Róbert ; Dingová, Vilma ; Dvořák, Michal ; Hájková, Dana ; Hromádková, Eva ; Kulhavá, Kamila ; Štiková, Radka
We present a model of public finance for the Czech Republic that addresses the main sources of risks to long-term fiscal sustainability: ageing-related expenditures and revenues, and the corresponding evolution of government debt. The baseline model is based on recent demographic projections issued by the Czech Statistical Office that forecast a shrinking share of the working-age population. Along with regulations and microeconomic incentives embedded in the tax and expenditure systems, demographic developments will affect economic growth and government expenditure and revenues in the long run. Population ageing is found to have a significant impact on future government expenditure via spending on old-age pensions and health care, where the cost profiles are modelled to reflect technological progress in the treatment of ageing-related illnesses. The analysis shows that under the current policy settings, a compound demographic effect will cause the primary government balance to turn negative at the beginning of the 2030s. The growing primary deficits, along with interest payments, which react to debt dynamics, will lead to a rapid escalation of government debt. While the outcome of the model is dependent on the specific settings of macroeconomic trends and policy variables, our wide range of sensitivity analyses show that without a policy response, even the most optimistic population scenario delivers an unsustainable path for public finances.
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Integration of Turkey into the European Union
Švec, Ondřej ; Glazar, Ondřej (advisor) ; Dingová, Vilma (referee)
Integration into the European Union is a chance for candidate countries to catch up with the average income level in the current member states. This study shows economic impact of Turkey's membership on foreign trade between EU countries and Turkey and also shows impact on EU budget. To gauge the effect of Turkey's accession the gravity model of trade was used. It has been estimated that the trade effect of membership implies 60% increase in trade volume. The dynamic model find out that shared EU membership could lead to 5% increase in trade every year for next ten years and it could represent 1% annual growth rate of Turkey's GDP. Economic impact of growth in EU exports to Turkey will be rather small, more important for current EU members are consequences of Turkey's integration on EU budget. The estimated cost of subsidies for Turkey lies between 0.09% and 0.23% of EU's GDP assuming current financial framework. The total subsidies will amount up to 5.5% of Turkish GDP. These results suggest that EU membership, particularly its effect on trade and EU budget, could lead to large economic gains for the new member states with some costs for current EU members.
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The Main Determinants of European Trade Integration
Spivacenco, Carolina ; Vacek, Pavel (advisor) ; Dingová, Vilma (referee)
The importance of international trade cannot be neglected as it represents an important channel of wealth creation in the actual globalised world. Thus, the present writer aims to identify how the commercial flows have changed after the adoption of Euro and once the financial crisis has burst. Furthermore the main factors that influence trade are researched by using the gravitational econometric model and employing panel data for 14 EU member countries. The results show that the intensity of commercial exchanges are highly influenced by the level of development (GDP) of the country and the amount of FDI that are attracted, while the use of a common currency appears to be not too significant. At the same time, indicators are more sensible during the crisis period than the stable one, hence even small changes in independent variables can lead to higher decrease in trade. Key words: European trade, liberalization, competitiveness, financial crisis, contagion, Euro, gravitational model.
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Euro zone and fiscal transfers: does it mean wasting of time or necessity?
Paul, Tomáš ; Dingová, Vilma (advisor) ; Marko, Peter (referee)
The bachelor thesis discusses possible solutions of asymmetric economic shocks in euro-area. The first chapter shows that some of the criteria of the theory of optimum currency area are not fulfilled therefore the euro-area is more vulnerable to the asymmetric shocks. The second chapter introduces six proposals of the fiscal transfer mechanism as they are presented in literature. The third and fourth chapter analyzes and compares the construction of the mechanisms and fulfilling of seven features that the fiscal transfer mechanism should have. In the empirical part are calculated transfers for two mechanisms. The comparison shows considerable differences between them. The conclusion of the thesis is that the construction of the fiscal transfer mechanism is difficult because of the features of the euro-area and faces many problems, therefore the implementation cannot be recommended for the time being.
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