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Forecasting Capability of the GDP Components: Granger Causality Approach
Michalec, Jan ; Cahlík, Tomáš (advisor) ; Vozková, Karolína (referee)
This work aims to provide with the procedure of bivariate causality testing based on Granger (1969). We focused on exploration of forecasting capability of GDP components on output itself. We examine, which of five components defined in accordance with the expenditure approach can be useful in forecasting economic growth. Overall, the causal relationship is examined on national accounts data from three member states of the European Union: Austria, France and Germany. For the sake of general inference, the Granger causality tests are executed on panel data, too. We concluded, that consumption and investment possess ability to forecast economic growth. In contrast, GDP was found to be useful in forecasting government expenditures.
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Mapping Institutional Development: An Analysis of Deposit Insurance in Argentina
Lane, Dustin ; Cahlík, Tomáš (advisor) ; Benáček, Vladimír (referee)
72 Abstract This work analyzes the institutional evolution of Argentinian deposit insurance and how this evolution could be explained using the theoretical frameworks proposed by works both Acemoglu and Robinson and the works of Levitsky and Murillo. The study highlights how institutions develop over time within frameworks of political changes. In addition, the work highlights the theoretical gap in new institutional economics in relation to analyzing the development and evolution of institutions through time. In response to this theoretical gap this work proposes the use of new model to conceptualize how institutions interact at multiple levels of the institutional hierarchy and how independent institutional developments can be mapped within the institutional hierarchy as they develop through time. In the end it is the hope that the conceptualized model presented is the first step in developing a more practical and useful model for new institutional economics as it relates to economic development and the construction and implementation of development policies.
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CEE & SEE Markets Macro-Fundamental Analysis
Poštulková, Jitka ; Polyák, Oliver (advisor) ; Cahlík, Tomáš (referee)
The aim of this thesis is to verify and analyse presumed relations between selected macro-fundamentals, namely USD exchange rate, production index, interbank offered rate, inflation, money supply and two exogenous indices ( Standard & Poor's 500 and EURO STOXX 50), and CEE (Austria, Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary) or SEE (Bulgaria, Croatia, Slovenia, Romania) financial markets over the period from December 1995 to December 2015. In order to test the long-run cointegration relationships between studied markets and the set of macroeconomic variables, the Engle-Granger and Johansen tests are applied. The vector error correction model is used to confirm the long-run equilibrium interlinkages and the results show similar trend tendencies between stock indices and some of the macro-fundamentals in Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Romania. To verify the short-run causal linkages, the Granger causality test is employed. Based on retrieved findings, the efficiency of studied markets with respect to Efficient Market Theory is reviewed. Our findings reveal several pairwise short-run causal impacts between studied macroeconomic indicators and stock indices. The only indicator which does not impact any stock market is the interbank offered rate. Moreover, according to our results, all CEE&SEE stock...
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Panel Data Research on Corruption. Russia's perspective
Pogodina, Ksenia ; Cahlík, Tomáš (advisor) ; Bobková, Božena (referee)
Abstract(( The thesis assesses causes and consequences of public sector corruption, using panel data specification. The model presented in this work extends and updates the existing model, where new studies are incorporated and new methods for empirical evidence are used. Moreover, the analysis is expected to be more accurate and comprehensive than the existing one, since cross-sectional analysis is substituted by panel data analysis, which captures unobserved heterogeneity and country specific effects. The main correlations I am interested in are between the level of public corruption in a country and three other important variables: level of market competitiveness within economy, level of education in a country and the extent of democracy there. Hence, the topic is covered from both points of view: theoretical and empirical. Additionally, the model is applied for different samples of countries (developing and developed) in order to investigate if global tendencies hold for specific groups of countries or not. Furthermore, the work includes an example of Russian economy, where it is studied from theoretical and graphical perspective and only after that the proper inference is made, applying my general model for sample of developing countries. Empirical research shows that corruption and competition are...
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Demand and investment for jewellery at the time of economic crisis
Efimenko, Valeria ; Cahlík, Tomáš (advisor) ; Brechler, Josef (referee)
The consumer demand defines strategy and tactics of the organization of jewelry manufacture. The demand and its forecasting for short-term and long-term prospect is one of the major problems of marketing for the various organizations and firms. The demand size is influenced by price and non price factors which should be traced accurately on a constant basis by special departments of firms. My research question is how the demand for jewelry changes at the time of economic crisis. In this work a number of the major factors are identified which influence almost all buyers to get the jewelry. The concept of elasticity of demand has a direct bearing on the pricing policy of the companies. Therefore, considerable attention in this work is given to this economic category. In real life it is very difficult to obtain reliable and stable data on factors of cross elasticity to use it for pricing. The analysis carried out shows that price elasticity of jewels in most cases is low. Demand for luxury goods linearly depends on the personal income. The demand research accepts a special urgency in the conditions of the economic crises aggravating the competitive struggle between suppliers of jewelry. The world economic crisis has brought a rise in prices for gold and falling incomes of the population. It has led...
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Comparison of criminal behaviour development in the CR with trends in rich countries
Pokorný, Petr ; Cahlík, Tomáš (advisor) ; Polák, Petr (referee)
This bachelor thesis explores crime development in rich countries and compares it with crime development in the Czech Republic. The aim of this bachelor thesis is to statistically verify thoughts discussed in The Economist magazine about the downward trend in crime development in rich countries. In the first part of the thesis, terms related to crime are defined. Subsequently, rich countries are deter- mined. In the second part, the crime development in the rich countries is explored through a fixed effect model estimation of panel data. In the third part, crime de- velopment in the Czech Republic is analyzed by using a simple regression model and an autoregressive model. In the final part of the bachelor thesis, an econometric model analyzes factors that generally affect crime, especially wealth of countries. The arguments about the downward trend in crime development in rich countries are supported by statistical examination. 1
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The Effect of Globalization on the Income Inequality
Stárek, Martin ; Cahlík, Tomáš (advisor) ; Zeynalov, Ayaz (referee)
In this thesis, we explore the effect of globalization on the income inequality. We examine some features of methodology used in the majority of research on this topic that can have significant impact on results but they are not addressed in the publicly available research. Firstly, we proposed a new method of normalization that creates more stable data and created a new simple index of globalization using this method. This index then yielded more consistent results than the standard globalization indices. Secondly, we found out the most significant variable in a composite index can have no economic or logical interpretation. This was the case with the effect of mobile cellular subscriptions per 100 people on the income inequality. This means results of composite indeces should be interpreted carefully and a better analysis is probably estimating effects of all underlying variables individually. Moreover, we found that underlying variables in a composite globalization index can have opposite effects on the income inequality. The effects than cancel out, at least partly, and this can lead to smaller, statistically less significant results. Nevertheless, the overall effect of globalization on the income inequality, though statistically not significant, appeared to be negative. This is the case...
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Czech System of Compulsory Education - PISA data analysis
Žďárská, Barbora ; Cahlík, Tomáš (advisor) ; Votápková, Jana (referee)
This thesis is aimed at the effect of the educational reform, carried out in 2004, on the performance of Czech students. Moreover, the thesis analyses the impact of factors such as for instance sex, economic and social status, nationality, age on the results of Czech schoolchildren. The thesis deals with the importance of education as an indicator of level of development of a state. For the purposes of the research about educational system the thesis uses data from a survey PISA (Programme for International Student Assessment). The PISA is the best-known international comparative survey for the evaluation of the standard of an educational system of a country. The theoretical part of the thesis gives information about the methodology used during the data collection. The thesis also describes a critical perspective on the assessment, which is considered a controversial topic nowadays. In order to measure the impact of the reform the empirical research works with a pooled cross section containing data from 2003, 2006, 2009 and 2012. According to the thesis inquiry performances of pupils are influenced by sex as well as by social and economic status. However, due to a lack of time periods, the analysis fails to measure the effectiveness of the educational reform. The thesis is concerned with themes such as an...
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Czech educational system in the international context
Kučera, Milan ; Cahlík, Tomáš (advisor) ; Břízová, Pavla (referee)
This bachelor thesis analyses the impact of chosen variables on results from PISA. The thesis describes the short existence of PISA, summarizes the results from PISA with aiming on aggregatable variables and also deals with critique of PISA. The thesis provides the insertion of the czech system of compulsory education in the international context of results and findings of PISA. Econometrics analysis based on panel data of 44 countries participating in PISA from years 2006, 2009 a 2012 were confirmed international autocorrelation in results of PISA, significantly positive impact of economic, social and cultural background and negative impact of the inequality in the distribution of wealth in society. For this purpose was used spatial autoregressive model using maximum likelihood estimation method. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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Impact of Population Policies on Economic Development
Kaneko, Shinya ; Cahlík, Tomáš (advisor) ; Hejlová, Hana (referee)
Within the presented thesis, the issue on the impact of population policy types and economic development is investigated using econometric regression analysis on an unbalanced data panel of 188 countries during the period of 2000 to 2014. The key development of the existing econometric model is the adoption of population policy indicator variables according to the type of population policy (pronatal, antinatal, maintain and no intervention). The aim of this thesis is to show the significance and positive or negative correlation of population policy dummy variables with the use of representative datasets, which were selected according to empirical research. Additionally, the same model is also conducted for different groups of countries, (more developed, less developed and least developed) so as to examine the outcome according to the level of development. Consequently, short term negative effect of pronatalistic and maintaining population policy on GDP per capita is demonstrated. On contrary, regressions on different groups of countries validates no significant evidence on policy dummy variables.
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