National Repository of Grey Literature 126 records found  1 - 10nextend  jump to record: Search took 0.00 seconds. 
Essays in Empirical Financial Economics
Žigraiová, Diana ; Jakubík, Petr (advisor) ; Witzany, Jiří (referee) ; Teplý, Petr (referee) ; Gächter, Martin (referee)
This dissertation is composed of four essays that empirically investigate three topics in financial economics; financial stress and its leading indicators, the relationship between bank competition and financial stability, and the link between management board composition and bank risk. In the first essay we examine which variables have predictive power for financial stress in 25 OECD countries, using a recently constructed financial stress index. We find that panel models can hardly explain FSI dynamics. Although better results are achieved in country models, our findings suggest that financial stress is hard to predict out-of- sample despite the reasonably good in-sample performance of the models. The second essay develops an early warning framework for assessing systemic risks and predicting systemic events over two horizons of different length on a panel of 14 countries. We build a financial stress index to identify the starting dates of systemic financial crises and select crisis-leading indicators in a two-step approach; we find relevant prediction horizons for each indicator and employ Bayesian model averaging to identify the most useful predictors. We find superior performance of the long-horizon model for the Czech Republic. The theoretical literature gives conflicting predictions on how bank...
Essays in Empirical Financial Economics
Žigraiová, Diana ; Jakubík, Petr (advisor) ; Witzany, Jiří (referee) ; Teplý, Petr (referee) ; Gächter, Martin (referee)
This dissertation is composed of four essays that empirically investigate three topics in financial economics; financial stress and its leading indicators, the relationship between bank competition and financial stability, and the link between management board composition and bank risk. In the first essay we examine which variables have predictive power for financial stress in 25 OECD countries, using a recently constructed financial stress index. We find that panel models can hardly explain FSI dynamics. Although better results are achieved in country models, our findings suggest that financial stress is hard to predict out-of- sample despite the reasonably good in-sample performance of the models. The second essay develops an early warning framework for assessing systemic risks and predicting systemic events over two horizons of different length on a panel of 14 countries. We build a financial stress index to identify the starting dates of systemic financial crises and select crisis-leading indicators in a two-step approach; we find relevant prediction horizons for each indicator and employ Bayesian model averaging to identify the most useful predictors. We find superior performance of the long-horizon model for the Czech Republic. The theoretical literature gives conflicting predictions on how bank...
Credit Derivatives Market during Recent Financial Crisis
Buzková, Petra ; Teplý, Petr (advisor) ; Tripe, David (referee) ; Witzany, Jiří (referee) ; Dědek, Oldřich (referee)
The dissertation is composed of three empirical research papers analyzing the development on credit derivatives markets in recent years characterized by the global financial crisis in 2007- 2009 and subsequent European sovereign debt crisis. The basic motivation of the thesis is to contribute to the clarification of the turbulent development on credit derivatives markets. The first paper addresses main flaws of a collateralized debt obligation (CDO) market during the global financial crisis. The second paper examines the impact of the Greek debt crisis on sovereign credit default swap (CDS) reliability. The third paper analyzes whether a resulting change in CDS terms restored confidence in CDS contracts. An introductory chapter presents a common framework for the three papers. In the first paper, we examine valuation of a Collateralized Debt Obligation (CDO) in 2007- 2009. One Factor Gaussian Copula Model is presented and five hypotheses regarding CDO sensitivity to entry parameters are analyzed. Four main deficiencies of the CDO market are then articulated: i) an insufficient analysis of underlying assets by both investors and rating agencies; ii) investment decisions arising from the valuation model based on expected cash-flows and neglecting other factors such as mark-to-market losses; iii)...
Ensemble learning methods for scoring models development
Nožička, Michal ; Witzany, Jiří (advisor) ; Cipra, Tomáš (referee)
Credit scoring is very important process in banking industry during which each potential or current client is assigned credit score that in certain way expresses client's probability of default, i.e. failing to meet his or her obligations on time or in full amount. This is a cornerstone of credit risk management in banking industry. Traditionally, statistical models (such as logistic regression model) are used for credit scoring in practice. Despite many advantages of such approach, recent research shows many alternatives that are in some ways superior to those traditional models. This master thesis is focused on introducing ensemble learning models (in particular constructed by using bagging, boosting and stacking algorithms) with various base models (in particular logistic regression, random forest, support vector machines and artificial neural network) as possible alternatives and challengers to traditional statistical models used for credit scoring and compares their advantages and disadvantages. Accuracy and predictive power of those scoring models is examined using standard measures of accuracy and predictive power in credit scoring field (in particular GINI coefficient and LIFT coefficient) on a real world dataset and obtained results are presented. The main result of this comparative study is that...
Portfolio Optimization in the German Stock Market
Bastin, Jan ; Musílek, Petr (advisor) ; Witzany, Jiří (referee) ; Budinský, Petr (referee)
The thesis focuses on the equity portfolio management with quantitative methods. We present 3 types of optimization objectives: One tries to find minimum variance portfolios, tangency portfolios and portfolios with maximized expected returns in the German stock market. It is possible to compare those investment opportunities with a market-cap weighted benchmark and an equal weighted portfolio. Expected returns of stocks are estimated with fundamental factor models. Risks of portfolios are estimated with 5 types of covariance matrices: the matrix calculated with historical returns, estimations with the single index model, Fama-French three factors model, fundamental factor model and the shrinkage method. Our results are doubled because of the demonstration of the impact of turnover constraint on portfolio performance measures (transaction costs are included in our calculations). One can see that optimized portfolios had attractive risk-return measures in the period 2005 - 2015. Benchmark and equal weighted portfolios were dominated and we consider them to be inefficient investments in our test.
Impacts of new regulatory requirements for market risk
Vojkůvka, Adam ; Witzany, Jiří (advisor) ; Brodani, Jana (referee)
The aim of this master thesis is analyze the impact of new regulatory requirements for market risk in terms of internal approach of the selected portfolio. The first part deals with the definition and calculation methods of risk measures Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall. Furthermore, this part is dedicated to model backtesting and determination of the stress period. The second part describes the development of Basel I-III regulatory requirements for market risk with a focus on internal approaches. The third part focuses on the calculation and subsequent analysis of current and new regulatory reguirements for market risk using the historical simulation method, variance and covariance method and Monte Carlo simulation.
Machine Learning Methods for Credit Risk Modelling
Drábek, Matěj ; Witzany, Jiří (advisor) ; Málek, Jiří (referee)
This master's thesis is divided into three parts. In the first part I described P2P lending, its characteristics, basic concepts and practical implications. I also compared P2P market in the Czech Republic, UK and USA. The second part consists of theoretical basics for chosen methods of machine learning, which are naive bayes classifier, classification tree, random forest and logistic regression. I also described methods to evaluate the quality of classification models listed above. The third part is a practical one and shows the complete workflow of creating classification model, from data preparation to evaluation of model.
Asset Pricing in Emerging Markets
Ajrapetova, Tamara ; Witzany, Jiří (advisor) ; Fičura, Milan (referee)
General content: Current methods of estimation of cost of capital in the emerging markets are often neglecting various contradictions with the essentials of the model structure and assumptions. As the result of such imprecisions, the cost of equity is often understated (overstated). This thesis will attempt to assess current level of emerging market integration, liquidity and concentration. This will be followed by evaluation of traditional and alternative models for estimation of cost of equity. The author will address several currently available models such as Credit Rating Model, D-CAPM model, various versions of traditional CAPM models. Furthermore, she will compare and contrast their limitations taking into account the context of emerging markets. The testing of the models will be performed on country basis through the means of index data. In the last chapter, discussion of the results and possible improvements of the valuation approaches will take place.
Analysis of the Impact of Media Important Events on Financial Markets
Siuda, Vojtěch ; Witzany, Jiří (advisor) ; Fičura, Milan (referee)
This thesis analyses the impact of announcements of macroeconomic indicators in United States on price development of the VIX Futures, S&P500 Futures and EUR/USD FX rate. Theoretical part contains construction and description of individual markets. Empirical part investigates the reaction of market prices after 1, 10 and 30 minutes after announcement of an individual indicator value on a market surprise demonstrated as a difference between reported value and analysts' expectations. We tried to find a systematic reaction of market participants and the pace of absorption of new information into the market price. There have been found minimum of situations, where we explained the market move as a linear combination of market surprise. However, there was a several cases, where the market did not adjust to announced information quickly and was inefficient in a short period. In the second part of empirical research we tested all significant models on an out-sample data. The goal was to determine whether the market inefficiencies persisted and stable profit could be achieved. We analysed the brutto performance, then netto performance including all transaction costs. Finally, we defined a simple trading rules with a purpose of profit stabilization and lowering the riskiness of trades. For VIX Futures and EUR/USD markets we achieved a low loss, respectively negligible profit. For S&P 500 Futures we obtained a profit strategies for all selected indicators, total profit was high with a very low volatility of invested capital.
Calibration of interest rate trees and valuation of interest rate options
Veska, Tobiáš ; Witzany, Jiří (advisor) ; Hurt, Jan (referee)
Tato akalářská prá e se za ývá i o i ký i a tri o i ký i stro y pro o eňová í úrokový h op í. Nejdříve uvede e fi a č í deriváty a jeji h základ í vlast osti. Ve druhé části se za ěří e a základ í pri ipy a pod í ky, které jsou ez yt é pro o eňová í op í. Třetí část akalářské prá e je za ěře a a i o i ký odel, jeho odvoze í, kali ra i para etrů, uvede í Tri o i ký odel je odvoze z i o i kého odelu, ude e kali rovat para etry a diskutovat jeho výhody. Na ko i této části o e í e ěkolik op í za použití i o i kého tri o i kého stro u. V posled í části uvede e odely pro o eňová í op í a úrokové deriváty a zvýše ou pozor ost ude e vě ovat Lee odelu, po o í kterého o e í e úrokovou op i.

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1 WITZANY, Jiří
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