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Fixed-odds betting and real odds
Vojtík, Jakub ; Lachout, Petr (advisor) ; Večeř, Jan (referee)
The fixed-odds betting is currently very popular. Bookmakers set the odds on sport events, which represent an amount possible to win per each unit bet. The aim of this thesis is to study whether the odds can reflect the probabilities of the outcomes of sport matches, based on which then try to tell if the same can go for the bettors and their bets. First, there are derived several models for setting the odds. Then there is constructed a hypothesis test to test a validity of one of these models. This cannot be rejected, thanks to which there is estimated the dependence of the real probabilities on the odds. It turns out that with the exception of probabilities close to 0 and 1 the estimation might work. The conclusion of the thesis is the statement that odds could a be a good indicator of the probabilities and in such case also the bets of the bettors would correspond to them. 1

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