National Repository of Grey Literature 55 records found  1 - 10nextend  jump to record: Search took 0.00 seconds. 
Machine learning-based approaches to forecasting international trade
Kovařík, Tomáš ; Semerák, Vilém (advisor) ; Macháček, Vít (referee)
In this thesis I focus on comparison of gravity model estimated with ordinary least squares and Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood with regression techniques based on machine learning, namely support vector machines, random forests, and arti_cial neural networks. I discuss the advantages and disadvantages of these approaches and compare their forecasting accuracy on exports data. I demonstrate that random forest models and arti_cial neural networks provide superior forecasting accuracy.
Withholding Tax Rate Elasticities of Foreign Direct Investment Outflows and Tax Revenue Consequences of Double Tax Treaties
Láznička, Jan ; Janský, Petr (advisor) ; Semerák, Vilém (referee)
This thesis provides a cross-country analysis of potential tax revenue losses due to the ways different countries tax over-border dividend and interest incomes of multinational enterprise. Withholding taxation of outgoing dividends and interest payments is regulated by domestic tax rules as well as bilateral double tax treaties. The signing of such a treaty might substantially reduce the tax rate levied by the source country on the outgoing passive income and thus decrease its tax revenue. We create a large panel dataset and estimate withholding tax rate elasticities of dividend and interest outflows for a large set of countries around the world. Subsequently, we use these elasticities to estimate potential tax revenue losses due to outgoing dividend and interest payments for the source countries in our dataset. The results show highly elastic dividend outflows, 2.3% - 2.58% decrease related to 1% increase in the applicable withholding tax. We also find substantial tax revenue losses due to dividend outflows for a number of source countries, the largest for Canada (1.35 - 3.19 billion USD) and the United States (2.27 - 2.94 billion USD). The investor country behind the largest part of potential losses shows up to be the Netherlands. JEL Classification F21, F23, H25, H26 Keywords double tax treaty;...
Potential for Agricultural Trade between China and Central and Eastern Europe within the 16+1 Framework
Rasenko, Elena ; Semerák, Vilém (advisor) ; Benáček, Vladimír (referee)
The goal of the following paper is to analyse the trade potential for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and China in the trade of food products. Even though the trade in food products is comparably low, there are several reasons why it is worth a deeper analysis. Food security is having an important role in the Chinese domestic politics. Due to environmental, socio- economic and demographic changes, China cannot be self-sufficient and is therefore dependent on food imports. Since the introduction of the One Belt One Road Initiative and the 16+1 framework, China aims to improve the cooperation and trade in food commodities with participating countries. CEE can be a reliable partner because it produces high quality products with comparative advantages. With the help of the Gravity Model, the effects of the 16+1 framework was estimated, as well as the trade potential. Following the results, the introduction of the 16+1 framework has a positive and significant effect on agricultural trade between CEE and China. However, only five countries have potential to increase their food exports to China, while the remaining eleven already exceed their food exports. China on the other hand, is exporting below its potential in most of the cases.
More than Roads? A Gravity Model Analysis of the Institutional effects of Trade in the Belt and Road
Baraniecki, Cezary ; Semerák, Vilém (advisor) ; Paulus, Michal (referee)
Export data from 2007 - 2016 with 175 exporters and 195 importers is combined with institutional data from World Governance Indicators in order to ascertain the institutional effects on trade. This effect is measured by three different metrics using a gravity model: the effects on trade due to institutional quality of exporters and importers, the effects of particularly good and bad institutions and the effects of institutional similarity. These results are then used in order to analyze China's Belt and Road Initiative and its possible goals. China was found to export more to nations with good institutions and far less to nations with poor institutions, even when only looking at trade flows between China and B&R nations. Existing funding information and agreements listed in the last B&R Forum did not follow China's trend of exporting more to nations with good governmental institutions. Instead, a negative correlation exists between B&R funding and agreements and the institutional quality leading to the conclusion that China is not just strengthening existing trading relationships with the B&R Initiative but rather is pursuing other goals, such as trade diversification.
The Differential Impact of Minimum Wage on Employment across the EU Regions
Sklenářová, Tereza ; Janský, Petr (advisor) ; Semerák, Vilém (referee)
Several studies have shown that prices differ across regions and affect standards of living substantially. This thesis investigates whether they cause the differential impact of minimum wage on employment and hours of work across the European Union NUTS 2 regions. Based on the existing regional price estimates of 7 European Union countries and publicly available aggregate regional data, estimates of regional price levels for another 11 European Union countries with minimum wage are obtained. The method that was used for this purpose (multiple imputation) enables to use the resulting estimates as an explanatory variable in another regression as it takes into consideration using imputed instead of observed values by correcting the variances of parameter coefficients. The impacts of minimum wage are investigated for 3 groups of people who are at risk of being affected by its increase - young adults (15-19 years), low-educated individuals and low-skilled individuals. The results indicate that the minimum wage has a negative impact on employment that is higher in regions with higher price levels. The negative effect of minimum wage on hours of work was not confirmed.
Does donating to political parties pay off? Evidence from the Czech Republic
Navrátilová, Alice ; Palanský, Miroslav (advisor) ; Semerák, Vilém (referee)
According to the existing literature, political connections can lead to favouritism towards the connected companies. This thesis approximates connections through donations to political parties and analyses their effect on the value of public procurement administered by Czech Ministries between 2007 and 2017. Donations from legal entities are used along with contributions from natural persons who are matched with companies' officials to account for the possibility of masking the real identity of donors. We analyse the impact of donations on procurement from three perspectives. Firstly, we focus on donations made to parties with the largest representation in government, but do not find that firms connected to these parties win more favourable procurement contracts. We then extend the analysis to include other political parties present in the Chamber of Deputies during the examined period and each election term is assessed separately. The results suggest that donating firms received contracts of higher value than non-donating firms during two of the three election periods. Finally, we develop a novel panel-based approach with the aim to determine whether there exists a causal relationship between political connections and public procurement. The results show that connections to political parties...
Analysis of Chinese foreign direct investment to Europe
Bystřický, Lukáš ; Semerák, Vilém (advisor) ; Paulus, Michal (referee)
Foreign direct investment (FDI) from China has been growing rapidly in the last decade and it has become a hotly debated topic. Some countries are actively trying to attract more, while others warn of dangers to local economy and even national security. Both, media and researchers have studied the problem extensively and the outcomes are not uniform. This thesis summarizes all available information and debunks common public misconceptions about Chinese FDI. It studies particular cases to provide a closer look into the innerworkings of investment decision-making. It studies the microeconomic factors and politics that influence the investors. Furthermore, it uses the gravity model to explore the macroeconomic determinants of Chinese FDI flows using the most recent data on 174 countries over 9 years. The results of this empirical part are similar to previous findings and contribute to the existing pool of literature. In addition, they confirm the notion from previous chapters which reappears throughout the thesis. In contrast with media and politicians' statements, Europe is not the primary target for Chinese FDI. Keywords PRC, China, FDI, investment, Europe, gravity model Author's email: Supervisor's email:
Demand for Turkey as Tourist Destination
Fidanboy, Kemal Berk ; Cahlík, Tomáš (advisor) ; Semerák, Vilém (referee)
This master's thesis focuses on main determinants of tourism demand of Turkey. Analysis is made for 95 countries between 2007 and 2016 using panel data gravity model. Variables which are used in the analysis are economic variables (GDP per capita and relative prices), weighted distance, population and political variables which are terror and democracy index differences between tourist origin country and Turkey, internal political problem, which is coup d'état attempt in 2016 and foreign policy problems which are Gaza crisis with Israel and plane crisis with Russia. Key contribution of this thesis is to include political variables in the model, extend the data set and observe the time period which Turkey has the highest number of tourists and experienced sharp decrease afterwards. As for the estimation, three different models which are pooled Ordinary Least Squares, Fixed Effects and Random Effects are used. These models are compared with each other by performing different tests and it is founded out that Fixed Effects model is the most efficient one. For the results, it is founded out that except the political variables; other variables have expected significance and contribution, both positive and negative, to tourism demand of Turkey. Even though the internal and foreign political problems have...
Analysis of the possible effects of TTIP on Czech automotive sector
Janičata, Jiří ; Semerák, Vilém (advisor) ; Rusnák, Marek (referee)
This thesis analyzes possible effects of TTIP treaty on Czech automotive sector. First part of thesis describes history of trade liberalization between EU and USA and actual state of TTIP. Second part describes current tariff and non-tariff barriers in automotive sector, which can be removed or reduced after ratification of TTIP. Third part shows results of selected impact assessments of TTIP and explains CGE model, which will be used in final part. In the final part, an estimate of the impact of the TTIP contract on the Czech automotive industry is made on the basis of selected scenarios. The CGE-GTAP model using the data from the GTAP 9 database was selected for the impact assessment. The scenarios simulate the economic shock that would occur after the tariff cuts or non-tariff barriers between EU countries and the US using the shock of selected exogenous variables in RunGTAP program. The results of the models show a significant increase in exports from the Czech Republic to the USA in the simulation of tariff and non-tariff barriers, but also a slight decrease in exports to other regions. New findings are summarized in the summary, complemented by the author's commentary.
Repealing NAFTA: The impact on international trade with focus on Mexico
Kolář, Daniel ; Semerák, Vilém (advisor) ; Cazachevici, Alina (referee)
The North American Free Trade Agreement came into force in 1994 after long and emotive discussions. When Donald Trump became the US president in 2016, its future became uncertain, which motivates this paper to attempt to quantify the impact of its repeal. To do that, it uses a standard GTAP general equilibrium model and models an increase of intra-NAFTA tariffs to the derived MFN rates. It finds that NAFTA repeal would notably reduce intra-NAFTA trade and have a modest but negative impact on countries' welfare. NAFTA repeal is estimated to decrease Canadian GDP by 0.48%, US GDP by 0.39% and Mexican GDP by 0.06%. It would severely damage US-Mexico value chains and increase income inequality in Mexico by hurting unskilled workers more. Additional simulations are performed to control for variation in sectoral MFN rates and to observe the sensitivity of results to the choice of closure. The only positive of NAFTA repeal is that it might mitigate regional economic disparities in Mexico by damaging sectors concentrating their production near the US-Mexico border. 1

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2 Semerák, Vojtěch
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