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Evaluation of China's FOREX policy: equilibrium exchange rate perspective
Qiriga, - ; Semerák, Vilém (advisor) ; Baxa, Jaromír (referee)
Master Thesis: Evaluation of China's FOREX Policy: Equilibrium Exchange Rate Perspective. Author: - Qiriga Supervisor: Ing. Vilém Semerák M.A., PhD. Academic Year: 2018/2019 Abstract This thesis investigated China's foreign exchange policy from the equilibrium exchange rate perspective, using the Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate model with multiregional dimension. The core question is whether Renminbi is misaligned (over- or undervalued) from 2001 to 2017. The result indicated that the bilateral nominal exchange rate of Renminbi against the US dollar was undervalued from 2002 to 2013, reaching a peak of 34.2% in 2007. In the rest of the years, it was overvalued slightly against the US dollar. As to the real effective exchange rate (REER) of Renminbi, it was overvalued in the first three years of the 2000s, then went through the period of undervaluation of 9 years, with a smaller degree compared with the bilateral exchange rate. It is shown that from 2013 the REER of Renminbi had been overvalued for several years until it was undervalued again in 2017 by 2%. Keywords FEER, Renminbi, exchange rate misalignment, multinational model, real effective exchange rate
Costs of Conflict: Empirical Analysis of the Economic Situation in Palestine and Israel
Pankina, Anastasia ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor) ; Semerák, Vilém (referee)
This thesis analyzes the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Deeply rooted in history, and dominated by mutual violence, the conflict has been causing considerable damage to society, politics and economics for several decades. The latest attempts for the peace negotiations process failed, leading to an escalation of tensions and the Second Intifada in 2000. The Israeli West Bank Barrier has been constructed with an aim to reduce the number of terrorist attacks and to stabilize the situation of the region. By using the synthetic control method, we evaluate the impact of the Second Intifada and the Barrier on GDP per capita. The results indicate that Israel benefits from the West Bank Barrier, in 10 years the country managed to completely recover from the substantial negative effect of the Second Intifada. On the other hand, the West Bank experienced a decline in GDP per capita at the beginning of construction since the Barrier damaged properties located close to the construction and restricted movement of goods and people. A couple of years later the situation stabilized, however, the West Bank was unable to achieve full recovery from the armed uprising of 2000, and the GDP per capita growth remained limited. The estimations for the whole of Palestine reveal a negative impact, that is also attributed to...
Innovation Indicator Analysis in the European Union: A Machine Learning Approach
Malecha, Jan ; Pleticha, Petr (advisor) ; Semerák, Vilém (referee)
The European Commission annually publishes a European Innovation Scoreboard (EIS) as a tool to measure the innovation performance of the EU Member States. This thesis extends the analysis published in the EIS 2018 in two different manners. The first part, a clustering analysis, examines the partition of the EU Member States to innovation performance groups. The thesis comes with a unique scheme of partition created by using hierarchical clustering. A comparison with the existing scheme shows that the general trends are similar in both schemes. The only main exception is the differentiation of the British Isles and Luxembourg apart from the other high performing countries. The proposed scheme provides insight about the within-cluster similarities, such as the similarity of Finland, Sweden and Denmark and their relative distinction from France, although they belong to one cluster. The second part, a regression analysis, attempts to examine the impact of innovations on real labour productivity. Contrary to existing literature, we do not find a statistically significant relationship between productivity and the components of the EIS. Additionally, the analysis is extended by the lasso estimation that provides a variable selection. The latter approach improves our findings and identifies four EIS...
Border Effect and Openness of Chinese Economy
Zacharuk, Pavel ; Semerák, Vilém (advisor) ; Cazachevici, Alina (referee)
The ratio of China's aggregate exports and aggregate imports to GDP has been decreasing in recent years, which seems to contradict many claims about China striving for increased openness about their economy. Our hypothesis is that the decrease might be connected with the development of GVCs and asymmetric improvement of transportation in China, driven by evolution of infrastructure. We have used simplified regionalization methods and regional input-output analysis in order to identify trend of interregional trade. The results show increase in interregional trade which does not refute this hypothesis.
Machine learning-based approaches to forecasting international trade
Kovařík, Tomáš ; Semerák, Vilém (advisor) ; Macháček, Vít (referee)
In this thesis I focus on comparison of gravity model estimated with ordinary least squares and Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood with regression techniques based on machine learning, namely support vector machines, random forests, and arti_cial neural networks. I discuss the advantages and disadvantages of these approaches and compare their forecasting accuracy on exports data. I demonstrate that random forest models and arti_cial neural networks provide superior forecasting accuracy.
Withholding Tax Rate Elasticities of Foreign Direct Investment Outflows and Tax Revenue Consequences of Double Tax Treaties
Láznička, Jan ; Janský, Petr (advisor) ; Semerák, Vilém (referee)
This thesis provides a cross-country analysis of potential tax revenue losses due to the ways different countries tax over-border dividend and interest incomes of multinational enterprise. Withholding taxation of outgoing dividends and interest payments is regulated by domestic tax rules as well as bilateral double tax treaties. The signing of such a treaty might substantially reduce the tax rate levied by the source country on the outgoing passive income and thus decrease its tax revenue. We create a large panel dataset and estimate withholding tax rate elasticities of dividend and interest outflows for a large set of countries around the world. Subsequently, we use these elasticities to estimate potential tax revenue losses due to outgoing dividend and interest payments for the source countries in our dataset. The results show highly elastic dividend outflows, 2.3% - 2.58% decrease related to 1% increase in the applicable withholding tax. We also find substantial tax revenue losses due to dividend outflows for a number of source countries, the largest for Canada (1.35 - 3.19 billion USD) and the United States (2.27 - 2.94 billion USD). The investor country behind the largest part of potential losses shows up to be the Netherlands. JEL Classification F21, F23, H25, H26 Keywords double tax treaty;...
Potential for Agricultural Trade between China and Central and Eastern Europe within the 16+1 Framework
Rasenko, Elena ; Semerák, Vilém (advisor) ; Benáček, Vladimír (referee)
The goal of the following paper is to analyse the trade potential for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and China in the trade of food products. Even though the trade in food products is comparably low, there are several reasons why it is worth a deeper analysis. Food security is having an important role in the Chinese domestic politics. Due to environmental, socio- economic and demographic changes, China cannot be self-sufficient and is therefore dependent on food imports. Since the introduction of the One Belt One Road Initiative and the 16+1 framework, China aims to improve the cooperation and trade in food commodities with participating countries. CEE can be a reliable partner because it produces high quality products with comparative advantages. With the help of the Gravity Model, the effects of the 16+1 framework was estimated, as well as the trade potential. Following the results, the introduction of the 16+1 framework has a positive and significant effect on agricultural trade between CEE and China. However, only five countries have potential to increase their food exports to China, while the remaining eleven already exceed their food exports. China on the other hand, is exporting below its potential in most of the cases.
More than Roads? A Gravity Model Analysis of the Institutional effects of Trade in the Belt and Road
Baraniecki, Cezary ; Semerák, Vilém (advisor) ; Paulus, Michal (referee)
Export data from 2007 - 2016 with 175 exporters and 195 importers is combined with institutional data from World Governance Indicators in order to ascertain the institutional effects on trade. This effect is measured by three different metrics using a gravity model: the effects on trade due to institutional quality of exporters and importers, the effects of particularly good and bad institutions and the effects of institutional similarity. These results are then used in order to analyze China's Belt and Road Initiative and its possible goals. China was found to export more to nations with good institutions and far less to nations with poor institutions, even when only looking at trade flows between China and B&R nations. Existing funding information and agreements listed in the last B&R Forum did not follow China's trend of exporting more to nations with good governmental institutions. Instead, a negative correlation exists between B&R funding and agreements and the institutional quality leading to the conclusion that China is not just strengthening existing trading relationships with the B&R Initiative but rather is pursuing other goals, such as trade diversification.
The Differential Impact of Minimum Wage on Employment across the EU Regions
Sklenářová, Tereza ; Janský, Petr (advisor) ; Semerák, Vilém (referee)
Several studies have shown that prices differ across regions and affect standards of living substantially. This thesis investigates whether they cause the differential impact of minimum wage on employment and hours of work across the European Union NUTS 2 regions. Based on the existing regional price estimates of 7 European Union countries and publicly available aggregate regional data, estimates of regional price levels for another 11 European Union countries with minimum wage are obtained. The method that was used for this purpose (multiple imputation) enables to use the resulting estimates as an explanatory variable in another regression as it takes into consideration using imputed instead of observed values by correcting the variances of parameter coefficients. The impacts of minimum wage are investigated for 3 groups of people who are at risk of being affected by its increase - young adults (15-19 years), low-educated individuals and low-skilled individuals. The results indicate that the minimum wage has a negative impact on employment that is higher in regions with higher price levels. The negative effect of minimum wage on hours of work was not confirmed.
Does donating to political parties pay off? Evidence from the Czech Republic
Navrátilová, Alice ; Palanský, Miroslav (advisor) ; Semerák, Vilém (referee)
According to the existing literature, political connections can lead to favouritism towards the connected companies. This thesis approximates connections through donations to political parties and analyses their effect on the value of public procurement administered by Czech Ministries between 2007 and 2017. Donations from legal entities are used along with contributions from natural persons who are matched with companies' officials to account for the possibility of masking the real identity of donors. We analyse the impact of donations on procurement from three perspectives. Firstly, we focus on donations made to parties with the largest representation in government, but do not find that firms connected to these parties win more favourable procurement contracts. We then extend the analysis to include other political parties present in the Chamber of Deputies during the examined period and each election term is assessed separately. The results suggest that donating firms received contracts of higher value than non-donating firms during two of the three election periods. Finally, we develop a novel panel-based approach with the aim to determine whether there exists a causal relationship between political connections and public procurement. The results show that connections to political parties...

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2 Semerák, Vojtěch
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