National Repository of Grey Literature 141 records found  1 - 10nextend  jump to record: Search took 0.00 seconds. 
Central Bank Communication and Correlation between Financial Markets: Evidence from the Euro Area
Kučera, Milan ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (referee)
The aim of this thesis is to assess the effect of ECB's communication on financial market co- movements between Italy, Spain, Germany and France using MGARCH family of models. Author addresses partially the potential problem of endogeneity of central bank communication by using Composite indicator of systemic stress and excess liquidity. The author estimates the impact of ECB's communication on correlations of government bond yield changes using daily data from 2008 to 2014. For this purpose author employs bivariate diagonal BEKK(1,1) and bivariate scalar BEKK(1,1) with surprises of macroeconomic announcements under control. The results are consistent and robust for all models, the results suggest that communication does not have statistically significant effect on financial market correlations in the Euro area. Furthermore, author defines delta functions which describe and quantify the immediate and full effect of explanatory variables on conditional correlations in bivariate diagonal BEKK(1,1) and bivariate scalar BEKK(1,1). To the best of author's knowledge this thesis is the only one in the literature which examines this effect of ECB's communication by MGARCH models. Keywords: Financial markets, central bank communication, correlation, MGARCH, BEKK Author's e-mail: milankucera1@seznam.cz...
Central Bank Communication and Systemic Stress
Pokorná, Anna ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Jakubík, Petr (referee)
This thesis aims to examine the effect of European Central Bank's (ECB) oral communication on the financial systemic stress in the euro area. It considers ad-hoc speeches and interviews by the members of the ECB Governing Coun- cil as well as official press conferences between July 2008 and January 2014. The empirical analysis tests the effects of communication intensity and senti- ment and whether they differ in different stress regimes. Regression results of ARIMA based models and Threshold auto-regressive model suggest that oc- currence of official press conference increases the systemic stress, sentiment of communication matters only in the case of the ad-hoc speeches and interviews, but mainly that both the official and unofficial oral communication have a con- siderably stronger effect in periods of heightened systemic stress. Although the estimated effects are rather small, this thesis provides support for the hypoth- esis that ECB communication can affect the systemic stress. i
Google Econometrics: Predicting Bond Prices
Krečmer, Marek ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Kočenda, Evžen (referee)
1 Abstract The thesis analysed whether it is possible to improve on time-series forecasting models used to predict prices and volatility of government bonds by adding online search data. Previous research showed that Google trends data are an useful source of an additional information which could improve various fore- casting or nowcasting models. Our research expanded the area into government bonds and tested if the Google trends data could be of any use on this kind of data as well. We have analysed most of the government bond tenors of all the main English speaking countries and the Czech Republic and focused on one-day- ahead forecasting of yields and weighted volatility. To forecast the next day values, we have set up ARIMA-GARCH, GARCH(1,1), AR(1), mean, median and lagged values and compared their performance with the realized values. In addition, we have set-up augmented versions of ARIMA-GARCH, GARCH(1,1) and AR(1) that included online search data. The subsequent findings can be sometimes inconclusive but we have observed quite significant improvements for some of the models and tenors of United States, United Kingdom and Australian government bonds. We have arrived at the conclusion that Google trends data could be used to improve some of the models. It is also possible that the usability depends...
Base erosion and profit shifting by multinational firms: re-estimation of firm-level evidence
Petrouš, Michal ; Janský, Petr (advisor) ; Horváth, Roman (referee)
iv Abstract The thesis focuses on base erosion and profit shifting (BEPS) and resulting corporate income tax gains or losses. I first estimated profit shifting semi-elasticity using database of firm-level financial data. Subsequently I used these estimates to calculate corporate income tax gains or losses for individual countries. I estimate several models to see how much the semi-elasticity depends on specification and what affects it. The evidence suggests that companies do shift profits to countries with lower tax rate. The estimated overall profit shifting semi-elasticity ranges from 1.524 to 3.695 for different specifications of the benchmark model. Semi-elasticity of individual countries increases with financial secrecy score. Using statutory tax rate yields stronger results than using country-level effective tax rates calculated from the financial data. The estimated effect on government revenue ranges from 12% loss to 23% gain of corporate income tax revenues. In the sample of 53 countries with sufficient number of observations this translates to overall loss 48 billion US dollars. JEL Classification F23, F68, G38, H25, H26, H87 Keywords base erosion, profit shifting, corporate income tax, financial secrecy Author's e-mail michal.petrous@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail jansky@fsv.cuni.cz
Assessing Economic Linkages between the EU and the Eastern Europe Neighbours
Moisei, Daniela ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Komárek, Luboš (referee)
Charles University Faculty of Social Sciences Institute of Economic Studies MASTER'S THESIS Assessing Economic Linkages between the EU and the Eastern Europe Neighbours Author: Bc. DanielaMoisei Supervisor: Prof. Roman Horváth, Ph.D. Academic Year: 2017/2018 Abstract The proposed study analyses the economic linkages between five Central and Eastern European countries (Czech Republic, Romania, Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine) and the euro area, in the period 2006-2017, applying the block-restriction vector autoregression model. It allows evaluating the amplitude and persistence of the domestic vs. euro area shocks on four macroeconomic indicators: real GDP, short-term interest rate, CPI, and FX rate. The main findings emphasize that EU members are more economically synchronized with the euro area, responding to external factors in less than 10 months. Nevertheless, the Central Banks of the East European countries react extensively to the ECB monetary policy shocks, following broadly its short-term interest rate. Eastern Neighbourhood countries and Central EU members demonstrated tight connections with the euro area, in terms of international transmission of price shocks and economic activity synchronization. Thus, Czech Republic and Romania could be relevant models for the Eastern European countries, reaching...
The Effect of Unconventional Monetary Policy of ECB on Housing Prices
Górecki, Vojtěch ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Kučera, Adam (referee)
Thethesisexaminestherelationshipbetweentheunconventional monetary policyofECBandhousing markets. Weconducttheempiricalanalysison quarterlypaneldataconsistingofvariablesfromselectedeuroareacountries overtheperiod2007Q4-2017Q4. Theunconventional monetarypolicyis measuredwiththe Wu-XiaShadowrate. Thepanel VAR modelestimation providesonlyweakevidenceonthepositiveeffectoftheunconventionalmon- etarypolicyonhousingprices. Theevidenceonthe mortgageratesis more convincinginestimatingsignificantresponsethatspansovertwoyearswith peakatoneyearmark.Theresultsoftheindividualcountryanalysisindicate theheterogeneityofresponses,whiletheeffectislesssignificantincountries thatweremoreaffectedbythefinancialandsovereigndebtcrisis. JEL Classification C30,E00,R30, Keywords panel vector autoregression, unconventional monetarypolicy, ECB,housing market,euro area,shadowrate Author'se-mail vojtech.gorecki@gmail.com Supervisor'se-mail roman.horvath@fsv.cuni.cz
Coexceedance in financial markets of countries trying to join the European Union
Baranová, Zuzana ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Dědek, Oldřich (referee)
This thesis analyses financial contagion between a reference EU market - Germany and markets of five countries which are actively seeking to become a part of European Union - Montenegro, Serbia, Turkey, Bosnia and Macedonia in the period of March 2006 to March 2018. We apply quantile regression framework to analyse contagion which we base on the occurrence and degree of coexceedances between the reference and analysed market. The results indicate that contagion between stock markets exists, however in different degree for each of the analysed markets. In addition we apply the regression framework specifically for period of financial crisis of 2008 to demonstrate that contagion is stronger during turbulent market periods. JEL Classification G01, G14, G15 Keywords coexceedance, quantile regression, contagion, stock markets Author's e-mail 80605682@fsv.cuni.cz Supervisor's e-mail roman.horvath@fsv.cuni.cz
Brexit and Stock Market Comovements of UK and Europe
Bedrichová, Táňa ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Komárek, Luboš (referee)
The referendum organised in United Kingdom on June 23rd , 2016 led to an unexpected decision to leave the European Union. Since Brexit announcement, uncertainty about the economic prospects of the United Kingdom and of the EU has increased, and multiple research has been conducted to estimate the economic implication of Brexit for the UK as well as for the rest of Europe. The thesis addresses this topic from the point of view of financial markets correlation, and assesses how did the Brexit announcement and the outcome of the 2016 referendum influenced the cointegration of the UK stock market with those of continental Europe. Using a multivariate DCC-GARCH model, and European stock markets data, the thesis concludes that correlation of UK and European stock markets decreased since the referendum announcement, and further decrease has been observed after the vote took place. JEL Classification: C01, C39, D89, F15, F30, F36, G19 Key words: Brexit, uncertainty, stock market cointegration, European Union, financial markets Author's e-mail: tana.bedrichova@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail: roman.horvath@fsv.cuni.cz
Impact of institutions on Cross-Border Price dispersion
Schwarz, Jiří ; Jurajda, Štěpán (advisor) ; Horváth, Roman (referee)
This thesis, building on existing studies on border effect, analyzes price dispersion among cities in the European region over the last twenty years (1990-2009). An extensive overview of the literature reveals that the authors completely neglect the entrepreneurial aspect of the arbitrage process, even though arbitrage is the main power behind the law of one price. Once we understand arbitrage as productive entrepreneurial activity, institutional quality should be one of determinants of arbitrage attractiveness and should, therefore, influence the price dispersion. To test this hypothesis I express the quality of institutions as one of the factors influencing total costs of arbitrage, together with population density in cities used as a proxy for competition intensity, and distance. The regression analysis proves that all three variables explain a part of observed price dispersion - the higher is the density and the better are the institutions, the lower is the predicted dispersion. This result can also be viewed as a small contribution to the emerging literature empirically testing the theory of productive and unproductive entrepreneurship. Keywords: border effect, price dispersion, price convergence, law of one price, institutional quality, entrepreneurship
Essays on monetary policy transmission
Rusnák, Marek ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Baxa, Jaromír (referee) ; Pugh, Geoff (referee) ; Belke, Ansgar (referee)
The dissertation consists of three papers presenting applications of meta-analysis in macroeconomics and two papers dealing with real-time data properties and forecasting. The first two papers examine the effect of monetary policy on price level, while the third paper investigates the habit formation in consumption. Fourth paper presents a model to nowcast Czech GDP in real time, while the last paper looks at the properties of data revisions to Czech national accounts.

National Repository of Grey Literature : 141 records found   1 - 10nextend  jump to record:
See also: similar author names
23 HORVÁTH, Roman
1 Horváth, R.
2 Horváth, Radovan
23 Horváth, Roman
23 Horváth, Roman
1 Horváth, Rudolf
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