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Foreigners in the Czech Republic - 2017
Český statistický úřad
Time series of statistical data from many areas relating to foreigners in the Czech Republic (demography and citizenship, international protection, employment, education, crime, illegal migration, health), incl. data for 2016.
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Toy or Toxic Waste?: Our study is a continuation of the investigations of IPEN and Arnika that found octaBDE, decaBDE and HBCD in Rubik's cubes, children's toys and hair accessories, i.e., products that were not treated with these substances but made of recycled plastic.
Petrlík, Jindřich ; Straková, Jitka
Our study is a continuation of the investigations of IPEN and Arnika that found octaBDE, decaBDE and HBCD in Rubik's cubes, children's toys and hair accessories, i.e., products that were not treated with these substances but made of recycled plastic. The previous study indicates that banned brominated flame retardants commonly found in hazardous electronic and building waste are recycled into new products where they were not present historically. We conducted additional sampling to further examine whether toxic substances are being recycled into children’s toys on the Czech market.
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Foreigners in the Czech Republic - 2015
Český statistický úřad
Statistical data from a number of areas related to foreigners in the Czech Republic (demography and citizenship, asylum procedure, employment, education, crime, illegal migration, health) in time series and current data for 2014.
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International Spillovers of (Un)Conventional Monetary Policy: The Effect of the ECB and US Fed on Non-Euro EU Countries
Hájek, Jan ; Horváth, Roman
We estimate a global vector autoregression model to examine the effects of euro area and US monetary policy stances, together with the effect of euro area consumer prices, on economic activity and prices in non-euro EU countries using monthly data from 2001-2016. Along with some standard macroeconomic variables, our model contains measures of the shadow monetary policy rate to address the zero lower bound and the implementation of unconventional monetary policy by the European Central Bank and US Federal Reserve. We find that these monetary shocks have the expected qualitative effects but their magnitude differs across countries, with Southeastern EU economies being less affected than their peers in Central Europe. Euro area monetary shocks have greater effects than those that emanate from the US. We also find certain evidence that the effects of unconventional monetary policy measures are weaker than those of conventional measures. The spillovers of euro area price shocks to non-euro EU countries are limited, suggesting that the law of one price materializes slowly.
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Assessing the Fiscal Sustainability of the Czech Republic
Ambriško, Róbert ; Dingová, Vilma ; Dvořák, Michal ; Hájková, Dana ; Hromádková, Eva ; Kulhavá, Kamila ; Štiková, Radka
We present a model of public finance for the Czech Republic that addresses the main sources of risks to long-term fiscal sustainability: ageing-related expenditures and revenues, and the corresponding evolution of government debt. The baseline model is based on recent demographic projections issued by the Czech Statistical Office that forecast a shrinking share of the working-age population. Along with regulations and microeconomic incentives embedded in the tax and expenditure systems, demographic developments will affect economic growth and government expenditure and revenues in the long run. Population ageing is found to have a significant impact on future government expenditure via spending on old-age pensions and health care, where the cost profiles are modelled to reflect technological progress in the treatment of ageing-related illnesses. The analysis shows that under the current policy settings, a compound demographic effect will cause the primary government balance to turn negative at the beginning of the 2030s. The growing primary deficits, along with interest payments, which react to debt dynamics, will lead to a rapid escalation of government debt. While the outcome of the model is dependent on the specific settings of macroeconomic trends and policy variables, our wide range of sensitivity analyses show that without a policy response, even the most optimistic population scenario delivers an unsustainable path for public finances.
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Updating the Ultimate Forward Rate over Time: a Possible Approach
Žigraiová, Diana ; Jakubík, Petr
This study proposes a potential methodological approach to be used by regulators when updating the Ultimate Forward Rate (UFR) for the evaluation of insurers’ liabilities beyond the last liquid point observable in the market. Our approach is based on the optimisation of two contradictory aspects – stability and accuracy implied by economic fundamentals. We use U.S. Treasury term structure data over the period 1985-2015 to calibrate an algorithm that dynamically revises the UFR based on the distance between the value implied by the long-term growth of economic fundamentals in a given year and the regulatory value of the UFR valid in the prior year. We employ both the Nelson-Siegel and Svensson models to extrapolate yields over maturities of 21-30 years employing the selected value of the UFR and compare them with the observed yields using the mean square error statistic. Furthermore, we optimise the parameters of the proposed UFR formula by minimising the defined loss function capturing both mentioned factors.
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A DSGE Model with Financial Dollarization: the Case of Serbia
Djukić, Mirko ; Hlédik, Tibor ; Polanský, Jiří ; Trajčev, Ljubica ; Vlček, Jan
We amend a DSGE model of a small open economy by adding financial euroization in order to capture the main channels of the monetary transmission mechanism in match the Serbian data. In contrast to the standard DSGE workhorse, the model encompasses commercial banks and foreign-exchange-denominated deposits and loans. Given these features, the model is well suited to evaluating effects of the nominal exchange rate on the financial wealth and consumption of households. The model structure, including optimization problems and first-order conditions, is provided in the paper. The model properties are tested to match the stylized facts of dollarized economies. Specifically, the model is calibrated to the Serbian data, and a model-consistent multivariate filter is used to identify unobserved trends and gaps.
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Should Inflation Measures Used by Central Banks Incorporate House Prices?: The Czech National Bank’s Approach
Hampl, Mojmír ; Havránek, Tomáš
In this note we describe the Czech National Bank’s approach to incorporating macroprudential considerations into monetary policy decision making: the use of a broader inflation measure that gives substantial weight to house prices and is considered along with headline CPI inflation. We argue that, in terms of theory, the broader inflation gauge is at least as suitable for measuring the value of money as headline CPI inflation is, but we also acknowledge practical problems that arise from the use of the broader index.
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System Priors for Econometric Time Series
Andrle, Michal ; Plašil, Miroslav
This paper introduces “system priors” into Bayesian analysis of econometric time series and provides a simple and illustrative application. Unlike priors on individual parameters, system priors offer a simple and efficient way of formulating well-defined and economically meaningful priors about model properties that determine the overall behavior of the model. The generality of system priors is illustrated using an AR(2) process with a prior that its dynamics comes mostly from business-cycle frequencies.
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Czech republic in international comparison: Selected indicators - 2016
Odbor informačních služeb ; Český statistický úřad
You will find 13 thematic areas covering the economic, social and environmental spheres of life. In addition to standard information on population, labor market, environment, economic sectors and macroeconomic data, in particular GDP, indicators of the information society, selected regional indicators and others were also included.
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