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Economic Research Bulletin (2013, No.2). No. 2, Vol. 11, November 2013, Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy
Česká národní banka
This edition of the Research Bulletin focuses on four articles which analyse the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy. The first article examines the interactions between monetary and fiscal policies in six industrialised countries during 1980–2008. Employing a novel empirical framework, the article documents changes in monetary-fiscal interactions over time. Next, these changes are linked to the monetary policy regime set-up. The second article assesses the extent to which fiscal discretion in the Czech Republic contributed to smoothing the real economy over the business cycle in the past decade. Using several alternative approaches, the results suggest that fiscal discretionary measures have been procyclical, that is, have amplified business cycle fluctuations. The third article analyses in an empirical framework how unexpected changes to government spending and revenues affect the Czech economy. The article detects certain regularities and at the same time shows the limits of the existing identification methods when applied to short Czech fiscal data. The fourth article takes a complementary approach by building a dynamic stochastic general equilib rium (DSGE) model to quantify the effects of fiscal measures on the expenditure and revenue sides of the Czech economy. The model, which is still rather in the development stage, demonstrates the potential for calculating fiscal multipliers and simulating the macroeconomic effects of fiscal measures for individual categories of the government budget.
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Economic Research Bulletin (2013, No.1). No. 1, Vol. 11, April 2013, Transmission of Monetary Policy
Česká národní banka
This edition of the Research Bulletin presents five articles that analyse various important policy issues related to monetary transmission. The first article analyses whether inflation dynamics have changed over time in Central Europe. It finds that the inflation process becomes more forward-looking only if the inflation targeting regime gains in credibility. The second article examines whether central banks in Central Europe carry out monetary policy in an asymmetric manner. The results are mixed, although some evidence for asymmetry with respect to financial instability is found. To prevent instability, central banks prefer looser policy than standard macroeconomic m odels would imply. The third article specifically looks at the monetary transmission changes in the Czech Republic. The results indicate that the reaction of economic agents to monetary policy has increased over time. The fourth article quantitatively surveys the literature on the transmission lags of monetary policy. The economy responds to monetary policy faster in Central and Eastern European EU member countries than in large economies. Greater trade openness and a lower degree of financial development are found to be key factors associated with faster monetary policy transmission. The fifth article quantitatively surveys the literature on how monetary policy affects prices. It shows that empirical studies which find that more restrictive monetary policy fails to deliver price stability are likely to be misspecified. It proposes a general framework that researchers should follow in order to reduce the risks of misspecification of this model.
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Economic Research Bulletin (2012, No.2). No. 2, Vol. 10, November 2012, Financial Stability and Monetary Policy
Česká národní banka
The importance of analysing the interactions between financial stability and monetary policy and its effects on macroeconomic fluctuations has risen substantially during the current financial crisis. This edition of the Research Bulletin is focused on five articles which analyse these interactions from various angles. The first article examines the effect of tighter macroprudential and monetary policies on output. According to this research, in comparison to monetary policy, macroprudential policy may be less costly, as it has less adverse effects on bank earnings. The second article examines to what extent financial frictions matter for macroeconomic fluctuations. The results suggest that the effect of financial frictions on macroeconomic fluctuations is sizeable only when financial stress is sufficiently high. The third article focuses on the relation between central bank finances and inflation. The article concludes that central bank losses are unlikely to represent a threat to price stability. The fourth article examines whether low monetary policy rates may increase commercial banks’ risk-taking. It finds that too low an interest rate may lead to a build-up of long-term risks to financial stability, but a lower interest rate during the life of a loan reduces its riskiness. The fifth article examines the interactions between bank capital and bank liquidity creation. The results indicate that greater capital requirements are beneficial for financial stability but may have an adverse effect on bank liquidity creation.
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Economic research bulletin (2012, No.1). Macroeconomic forecasting: methods, accuracy and coordination
Česká národní banka
The first article performs an empirical investigation of the accuracy of Czech quarterly GDP forecasts of various models which extract information from the available monthly indicators. The forecast performance of the eight models is compared mutually and with the historical near-term forecasts of the CNB’s staff. The second article assesses the practical usability of Bayesian fan charts for the purposes of CNB forecast evaluation and financial stability stress testing. The third article evaluates the accuracy of Consensus Economics forecasts by comparison with the alternative forecasts including those of international organisations. Furthermore, the impact of the recent crisis on forecast performance is investigated. The last article analyses the extent to which private analysts coordinate their forecasts with those produced by the Czech National Bank, and whether such coordination changes over time.
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Economic research bulletin (2011, No.2). Macro-financial linkages: theory and applications
Česká národní banka
The first article presents a model that incorporates credit frictions and serves to describe the dynamics of credit spreads in moderate as well as crisis times. The model is then used to evaluate the effects of quantitative easing and credit easing. The second article proposes a model that shows how the conditions of a parent bank might affect the interest rate setting of its subsidiary or branch in a foreign country, and is followed by an empirical assessment of the ten largest banks in the Czech Republic under foreign control. The remaining papers are of an empirical nature. The third article investigates the household credit market in the Czech Republic, proposing a new indicator of default risk and examining its determinants. The fourth article evaluates the extent to which financial variables help predict key Czech macroeconomic indicators. The last article presents evidence on the degree and evolution of financial integration of the Czech Republic and four other EU countries outside the euro area.
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Economic research bulletin (2011, No.1). Monetary policy analysis in a central bank
Česká národní banka
The first article gives a fairly general description of how monetary policy was conducted in a group of developed countries during the last three decades and shows how interest rate setting changed in response to various changes in the institutional framework, such as the adoption of inflation targeting. The second article tackles the classical issue of the money and inflation nexus. Although the benefits of money in policy analysis have been questioned by many commentators, the forecasting exercises carried out in this article lend some support to the role of money for policy analysis. The third article investigates the main channels of monetary transmission mechanisms and finds a well-functioning monetary transmission in the Czech Republic. Last but not least, the fourth article deals with the question of how the Czech National Bank is viewed by the media. The authors show that even surprising policy moves do not reduce the favourableness of media assessment, and emphasise the role of timely and clear central bank communication in this respect.
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Economic research bulletin (2010, No.2)
Česká národní banka
This edition of the Research Bulletin is devoted to the issue of wage adjustment in Europe, based on three articles produced within the European Central Bank Wage Dynamics Network working group. The articles summarise results from a harmonised firm-level survey on wage and price setting conducted in 15 countries of the European Union.
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Economic research bulletin (2010, No.1)
Česká národní banka
The first aticle formed the basis for the current CNB forecasting framework. The second one significantly shaped the discussions about the implications of the CNB’s losses. The third one established which methodologies and which data can be used to identify bubbles in the Czech housing market. The fourth introduced Beveridge curve estimates into the CNB’s policy documents. There are, of course, other papers that have influenced the CNB’s policy thinking. Some of them were featured in previous Bulletins and some are still work-in-progress. It is our hope that the CNB’s economic research will continue contributing to policy debates in the next ten years.
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Economic research bulletin (2009, No.2)
Česká národní banka
The first article in this edition, employing stress-testing procedures, assesses the determinants of the ability of Czech banks as compared to German ones to withstand credit and macroeconomic risks. The second article scrutinises the role of quality of banks’ management in bank failures, also testing whether there were differences between Czech-owned and foreign-owned banks. In the third article a modelling framework is proposed showing how the central bank’s knowledge of the health of the financial system could be used for the optimal conduct of monetary policy. The last article empirically examines developments in the integration of stock markets in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia vis-à-vis the euro area.
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Economic research bulletin (2009, No.1)
Česká národní banka
This issue tries to figure out which deviation factors were important in the Czech case. The presented articles propose several potential suspects: a series of shocks, the forecasting system and the decision-making system. The articles then suggest which methodologies could be used to decipher the deviation puzzle and provide empirical results for the Czech case. These results suggest that deviations of inflation from the target in the past decade cannot be explained by a single factor in the Czech case, and that the role of each factor changed over time. Anti-inflationary shocks are the most frequently identified source of the deviations. In the initial stage of inflation targeting, the forecasting system and the decision-making process also contributed. The analysis of factors contributing to deviations of inflation from the target provides useful lessons for improving the inflation targeting strategy. For example, a less rigid forecasting system seems to be more beneficial than a forecasting system that is changed only very rarely.
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