The Czech National Bank

The Czech National Bank 569 records found  previous11 - 20nextend  jump to record: Search took 0.00 seconds. 
Central Bank Monitoring - June 2017
Česká národní banka
Most of the central banks under review, including the ECB, are keeping their interest rates at low levels. The US Fed was alone in raising its key interest rate by 0.25 pp to 0.75%–1.00% as expected, and is addressing the issue of reducing its balance sheet. Although inflation is close to central banks’ inflation targets in all the economies under review except Switzerland, most of the banks are maintaining their unconventional monetary policy programmes. The Swedish Riks bank raised its target amount for government bond purchases. Spotlight focuses on the options and strategies for reducing the US Federal Reserve’s balance sheet. In our Selected Speech, SNB Governor Thomas J. Jordan talks about the effect of the increase in the SNB’s balance sheet on its investment policy.
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Central Bank Monitoring - March 2017
Česká národní banka
Most of the central banks under review, including the ECB, are keeping their interest rates still at low levels. The US Fed was alone in raising its key interest rate by 0.25pp, in line with expectations. Inflation has now exceeded the 1% level in all the monitored economies except Switzerland and seems to be heading towards central banks’ inflation targets. However, most of the banks are still maintaining their unconventional monetary policy programmes. Spotlight focuses on modern forms of central bank communication. In our Selected Speech, the deputy governor of the Bank of England Sir Jon Cunliffe presents the results of a survey of the investment behaviour of firms, an essential element of the monetary policy transmission mechanism.
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Global Economic Outlook - June 2017
Česká národní banka
The June issue of Global Economic Outlook presents the regular monthly overview of recent and expected developments in selected territories, focusing on key economic variables: inflation, GDP growth, leading indicators, interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices. In this issue, we also focus on assessing of the accuracy of the forecasts for 2016 published in Global Economic Outlook last year and the year before. The institutions under comparison were moderately optimistic with their economic outlooks. Their forecasts for GDP growth and inflation for 2016 expected higher figures on average than the subsequent outcomes. The outlooks for nominal interest rates in the USA and the euro area were also overestimated. The dollar did not appreciate against other currencies as much as expected by analysts. The price of oil was also mostly overestimated compared to the actual outcome.
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System Priors for Econometric Time Series
Andrle, Michal ; Plašil, Miroslav
This paper introduces “system priors” into Bayesian analysis of econometric time series and provides a simple and illustrative application. Unlike priors on individual parameters, system priors offer a simple and efficient way of formulating well-defined and economically meaningful priors about model properties that determine the overall behavior of the model. The generality of system priors is illustrated using an AR(2) process with a prior that its dynamics comes mostly from business-cycle frequencies.
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Global Economic Outlook - May 2017
Česká národní banka ; Sekce měnová ; Odbor vnějších ekonomických vztahů
The May issue of Global Economic Outlook presents the regular monthly overview of recent and expected developments in selected territories, focusing on key economic variables: inflation, GDP growth, leading indicators, interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices. In this issue, we focus on the question of whether the oil market is approaching equilibrium. We consider in more detail, among other things, the behaviour of OPEC and US shale oil producers observed over the last three years. We also attempt to identify the causes of occasional sharp swings in oil prices.
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Economic Research Bulletin (2017, No.1). Volume 15, Number 1, May 2017, Trade and External Relations
Česká národní banka
One of the key determinants of economic development in small open economies such as the Czech one is the external environment. Understanding the linkages to the external world is therefore of utmost importance for policymakers. It is not only international trade that is important. Capital flows and exchange rate fluctuations are also among the economic phenomena that should be monitored and analysed. The articles in this Research Bulletin represent a sample of the CNB’s research dealing with modelling of trade and capital flows and exchange rate fluctuations. The first article decomposes aggregate export growth in the Czech Republic in 2005–2014. The second article presents research aimed at improving the trade forecast. The third article also contains research relevant to economic forecasting. The fourth article studies the role of exchange rate movements.
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Annual Report - Czech national bank 2016
Česká národní banka
The annual report summarizes the CNB's activities for the year 2016. It is focused on the activities of the CNB, the management and the organization of the CNB, and even on its relations with the public.
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Global Economic Outlook - April 2017
Česká národní banka ; Sekce měnová ; Odbor vnějších ekonomických vztahů
The April issue of Global Economic Outlook presents the regular monthly overview of recent and expected developments in selected territories, focusing on key economic variables: inflation, GDP growth, leading indicators, interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices. In this issue, we also discuss the risks to global economic growth in the medium term. Global growth is currently being threatened above all by non - economic factors (environmental risks, large - scale migration, terrorism). Economic risks may continue to hinder world growth, but they no longer dominate the global risks in the way they did immediately after the global crisis broke out.
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Global Economic Outlook - March 2017
Česká národní banka ; Sekce měnová ; Odbor vnějších ekonomických vztahů
The March issue of Global Economic Outlook presents the regular monthly overview of recent and expected developments in selected territories, focusing on key economic variables: inflation, GDP growth, leading indicators, interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices. In this issue, we then focus analytically on the monetary and fiscal policy response space in OECD countries. The article shows that nominal interest rates are still expected to be very low over the medium term. This is inconsistent with the process of closing output gaps and attaining inflation rates close to 2%, making a return to conventional interest - rate policy more difficult. Our article also notes that the return to positive real interest rates will be complicated by the overleveraging of many OECD countries, as a visible rise in interest rates could increase the risk of insolvency of several euro area countries and trigger the feared domino effect.
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Central Bank Monitoring - December 2016
Česká národní banka
Most of the central banks under review are maintaining their interest rates at the current low level or considering a further monetary policy easing. For example, Norges Bank is considering lowering its key rate and the Riksbank increasing the volume of purchased bonds. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has lowered the key rate further. The ECB left interest rates unchanged in the previous period but extended its bond purchase programme and adjusted its parameters. On the other hand, the global economy is watching anxiously whether the Fed’s interest rates increase as expected at the close of this year. Spotlight addresses the effect of climate change on the financial sector, including central bank policies. In our Selected speech, member of the Executive Board of the Deutsche Bundesbank Andreas Dombret focuses on the perspectives of business models of commercial banks.
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