Udržitelnost důchodových systémů v zemich Evropské unie

Bronec, Ondřej

This thesis explores the future of pension systems of the European Union and Norway in the period between years 2016 and 2080. Due to demographic trends in fertility and life expectancy the number of people in working age declines and the number of people applicable for public pensions grows. This leads to increase in pressure put on public pensions and increase in pension expenditure in terms of GDP. By using EUROPOP2015 population predictions together with several economic predictions from the 2018 Ageing Report this thesis tries to capture future scenarios of pension expenditure. The results suggest significant challenges for most countries in the EU. We further analyse the results under different series of demographic assumptions identifying fertility as the most important factor and noticing different behaviour among states of Western and Eastern Europe. Finally, we try to test possible parametric solutions to compensate for increases in pension expenditure. We arrive at the conclusion that 8-10 year increase in pensionable age would stabilize the expenditure up to the year 2080 and a similar result would be achieved by nominal pension growth being equal to only 60% to 70% of nominal wage growth.

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