Zadlužení domácností a finanční stabilita: empirická analýza pro ČR

Kroupa, Jan

This thesis studies interconnections between macroeconomic environment and non-performing loans ratio (NPL) of banking loans provided to households in the Czech Republic in years 2005-2014. This analysis serves as tool for macroprudential policy to detect potential risks before negative consequences occur. The thesis examines mutual relations between households' non-performing loans ratio and variables capturing macroeconomic environment such as GDP growth, unemployment rate, CPI, interest rate and exchange rate. For purposes of this analysis, vector autoregressive approach and vector error correction model are applied. Based on impulse response analysis, most of expected relations are confirmed. Generally, favorable macroeconomic conditions increase payback capacity of households and reduce share of non-performing loans. According to forecast variance decomposition, increase in unemployment rate is the most serious threat for financial stability of the country from the perspective of non-performing rate increase. JEL Classification C32, C52, E21, G21 Keywords Households, indebtedness, financial stability, non-performing loans, Czech Republic, VAR, VECM Author's e-mail h.kroupa@seznam.cz Supervisor's e-mail seidler@email.cz

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