Modelování výnosových křivek a efekt makroekonomických proměnných: Dynamický Nelson-Siegelův přístup

Patáková, Magdalena

The thesis focuses on the yield curve modeling using the dynamic Nelson-Siegel approach. We propose two models of the yield curve and apply them on four currency areas - USD, EUR, GBP and CZK. At first, we distill the entire yield curve into the time-varying level, slope and curvature factors and estimate the parameters for individual currencies. Subsequently, we build a novel model investigating to what extent unobservable factors of the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model are determined by macroeconomic drivers. The main contribution of this thesis resides in the innovative approach to yield curve modeling with the application of advanced technical tools. Our primary objective was to increase the accuracy and the estimation power of the model. Moreover, we applied both models across different currency areas, which enabled us to compare the dynamics of the yield curves as well as the influence of the macroeconomic drivers. Interestingly, the results proved that both models we developed not only demonstrate strong validity, but also produce powerful estimates across all examined currencies. In addition, the incorporated macroeconomic factors contributed to reach higher precision of the modeling. JEL Classification: C51, C53, G17 Keywords: Nelson-Siegel, Kalman filter, Kalman smoother, Stace space formulation...

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